10 Over/Under Predictions for '23 Hawkeyes

The Lean for Fictional Hawkeye Prop Bets

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Yes, I know. Iowa Athletics is being investigated for gambling improprieties by student-athletes. It's not good. 

It's also not going to stop folks around here from talking about wagering on Hawkeye sporting events. Most books show Iowa's win total at 7.5 for '23. Take the over. 

I began this column several seasons ago and added it to my annual series of fun preseason preview stories. So far this year, I've published game-by-game predictions, a ranking of position groups, 5 breakout players and the indispensable list. 

The Over/Under Predictions' piece sets a line for fictional Iowa Football prop bets for the upcoming campaign. I share what my ticket would like for each. You should do the same and rub it in when you do better than me this fall. 

Here we go: 

Passing Touchdowns

Line: 16

Lean: Over

Logic: Iowa has thrown a combined 19 touchdown passes during the last two seasons, including just seven a year ago. New starting quarterback Cade McNamara tossed 15 scores in '21 at Michigan. So, I'm crazy taking the over, right? Wrong. The Hawkeyes posted at least 16 touchdown throws from '13-'19. They threw 27 in '17 and '18. 

Yards Per Carry

Line: 4.1

Lean: Over

Logic: Call me Captain Positive. The Hawkeyes averaged 2.9 yards per carry last season. They've averaged at least 4.0 just twice since '16, and one of those was the Covid-shortened '20. Still, it's the over for me. I have faith in Kaleb Johnson and company. I also think McNamara's mobility helps in avoiding sacks. 

Wide Receiver Receptions

Line: 110

Lean: Under 

Logic: Captain Positive exits. Iowa limped to 76 catches from the position year ago. It was the worst since the 74 it totaled in '12. However, '22 and '16 were the only times the receivers have been under 100 grabs since then. I'm going under here because when Iowa boasts the tight end talent like it has on this roster, it siphons receptions from the wideouts. 

Interceptions

Line: 18

Lean: Under 

Logic: Illinois paced the FBS in picks last year with 24. That total was one fewer than the Hawkeyes snared when they led the country in '21. They've intercepted at least 19 in a year four times during the last nine non-Covid seasons. They accumulated 15 or fewer in the other four campaigns, however. Iowa's reputation in this department proceeds it. Teams will be careful. 

Sacks

Line: 30

Lean: Over 

Logic: The Hawkeyes have produced at least 31 sacks in each of the last four full seasons, including 35 a year ago. During the previous five years, they reached 30 only once. The average over the nine full seasons is 30.2. Iowa must replace first-round NFL Draft Pick Lukas Van Ness and starting edge John Waggoner. Still, I think the depth on the D-Line translates into hitting the over. Thirteen different guys recorded at least a half a sack last fall. I think that number rises as well.  

Drew Stevens Made Field Goals

Line: 20 

Lean: Over 

Logic: Stevens knocked 16-of-18 field-goal attempts through the uprights as a true freshman last season. On one hand, there's hope offensive improvement provides him with more opportunities. That said, if Iowa moves the ball better than it did in '22, the goal would be scoring touchdowns, not settling for field goals. In '19, Keith Duncan booted 29 field goals. Two years later, Caleb Shudak had 24. With Kirk Ferentz knowing Stevens is money, risk will be limited once in his range. 

Kaleb Johnson Rushing TDs

Line: 10 

Lean: Under 

Logic: The last Hawkeye to rush for more than 10 touchdowns in a season was Jordan Canzeri, when he crossed the goal line 12 times in '15. Akrum Wadley (twice) and LeShun Daniels reached 10 TDs since then. I'd like to take the over here, but I think other running backs could vulture a few trips to pay dirt from Johnson. I'll go under but am not in love with it. 

Luke Lachey Receiving TDs

Line: 5

Lean: Under 

Logic: As the second tight end behind Sam LaPorta last season, Lachey hauled in four of the team's seven receiving touchdowns. LaPorta and Charlie Jones shared the team lead with three apiece in '21. Lachey (6-6, 253) provides quarterbacks with a big, athletic target built for end zone throws. So, why go under? I think opponents will pay him extra attention in the red zone, opening up opportunities for teammates. 

Cooper DeJean Interceptions

Line: 4

Lean: Under 

Logic: DeJean intercepted five passes last season, returning three of them for touchdowns. That occurred with Riley Moss on the other side. With the uncertainty at cornerback opposite DeJean at least to start this campaign, he might not see much action come his way. 

Nick Jackson Tackles 

Line: 105

Lean: Over

Logic: The transfer portal addition exceeded the century mark in tackles in each of the last two seasons. Jackson pulled it off playing in just 10 contests last fall. He's expected to slide from MLB to WLB with Jay Higgins in the middle. That could change, however. I see both guys ending up with roughly the same amount of stops, probably in the 110-120 range.