Howe: Iowa Football Game-By-Game Predictions

Outlook for Hawkeyes Heading into 2023 Season

Iowa players huddle up on the field before a game against Iowa State on Sept. 10, 2022 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - The time between seasons shortens with age. Some folks don't want to wish away the months in between them. 

That's not a knock on Millennials and Gen Zers. How you handle the offseason is your business. 

It doesn't matter anyway. Differences disappear at this time of year. Everyone is looking forward to the fast approaching college football season. 

I've been conducting this exercise for years. I couldn't tell you when I started or how accurate or, more likely, inaccurate I've been through the years. 

I did look back at the results from the two years. I predicted 9-3 regular seasons both times. Two seasons ago, the Hawkeyes finished 10-2. They were 7-5 last fall. 

The schedule lightens up with Michigan and Ohio State coming off of it, being replaced this year by Penn State and Michigan State. Iowa's toughest '23 road games based on preseason predictions would be in State College, at Wisconsin and at Nebraska. 

Of the 12 teams on the Hawkeye slate for this fall, Penn State (9.5 wins) and Wisconsin (9) are the only opponents predicted at Vegas Insider to finish with at least seven victories. Illinois (6.5), Minnesota (6.5) and Nebraska (6) are projected to be bowl eligible as well. 

We'll see how all of that shakes out. History tells us there will be surprises. 

So, let's have some fun running through Iowa's outlook in '23: 

Utah State at Iowa, 11 a.m. CT, Sept. 2, FS1

The over/under win total for the Aggies is at six. That's for a group that fell 38-10 to Memphis in the First Responders Bowl to finish 6-7 last fall. 

Iowa is 20-2 in season openers since '01. If it has designs on a memorable upcoming campaign, it can't lose this one. That's all the analysis needed here. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - Utah State has committed to carbon neutrality by 2040. Primarily through reduction and efficiency techniques, developing renewable energy on campus, increasing alternative transportation options, and working to reduce waste, it plans on neutralizing its institutional contribution to climate change. 

Prediction - Iowa 30, Utah State 3

Iowa at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. CT, Sept. 9, FOX

Feelings on this game shifted this week with the news the Cyclones projected starting quarterback, Hunter Dekkers, would be sidelined by gambling allegations. It made his availability for a Week 2 meeting with Iowa unlikely. 

ISU at least gets the contest at home. Whomever lines up behind center won't be dealing with the unruly folks at Kinnick Stadium. That said, he'll still be facing a stingy and opportunistic Hawkeye defense. 

Conversely, new Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara won at Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State in leading Michigan to the '21 Big Ten title. He's been prepared for Jack Trice Stadium. 

Some crazy developments highlight the history of this rivalry. This year's meeting could be decided by a special teams' play or a poorly-timed turnover as others have. These instances are hard to predict, however, so quarterback experience is more easily measured. 

The Hawkeyes hold a clear edge in two phases. If their offense doesn't screw it up, they should emerge victorious in this spot. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - The City of Ames is very proud of its water. For the goodness coming from the tap, credit the source.

Prediction: Iowa 17, Iowa State 10

Western Michigan at Iowa, 2:30 p.m. CT, Sept. 16, BTN

At last check, Draft Kings put the Broncos over/under win total at 3.5. Fan Duel had them one game better than that. This is not a "good" MAC team. 

Much like the Utah State game, Iowa has no business losing to Western Michigan at home if it has designs on a super season. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - The Hawkeyes' Week 3 opponent has gone by five different names - Western State Normal School, Western State Teachers College, Western Michigan College of Education, Western Michigan College, and, since 1957, Western Michigan University.

Prediction - Iowa 33, WMU 6

Iowa at Penn State, 6:30 p.m. CT, Sept. 23, CBS

Based on preseason predictions, this game is considered the toughest on Iowa's schedule. At MGM in Las Vegas, only four programs in the country have a win total set above Penn State's 9.5. Ten teams have the same number, including USC, Clemson, Texas and LSU. 

The Hawkeyes have competed well with PSU through coach Kirk Ferentz's 24 seasons in Iowa City. They have won 10 of 18 meetings during that time, including the last two. Iowa won, 41-21, on its last trip to State College, which came in '20. 

If the Hawkeyes were somehow able to pull off a win here and improve to 4-0, they certainly would have people talking. It could come down to how uncomfortable their defense can make Penn State's new starting quarterback, Drew Allar. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - The Nittany Lion was not Penn State's original mascot. That would be a mule named Old Coaly, which reportedly was bought for $190 in 1863. Coaly remained their mascot until his death in 1893. 

Prediction: Penn State 20, Iowa 16

Michigan State at Iowa, TBA, Sept. 30, TBD

This game was a whole lot more fun when Mark Dantonio was the Spartan head coach,. He and the Hawkeyes disliked each other. 

Without that animosity, it's just a conference crossover game for Iowa against a team with an O/U win total of 5.5 coming off a 5-7 campaign with a 3-6 Big Ten mark. On paper, this should be one of Iowa's easier conference contests this fall. 

After spring practice, MSU lost projected leading receiver Keon Coleman (Florida State) and starting quarterback Payton Thorne (Auburn) to the transfer portal. Couple those departures with what has been bad defense the last few years, and you have a recipe for mediocrity. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - MSU's Beaumont Tower marks the site of Old College Hall-the first building in America erected for instruction in scientific agriculture. A gift from John W. Beaumont (class of 1882), the tower was dedicated in 1929 and renovated in 1996, making possible weekly carillon concerts throughout the year. Each July the Muelder Carillon Series brings guest carillonneurs from around the world for a recital. 

Prediction: Iowa 27, Michigan State 13

Purdue at Iowa, 2:30/3:00/6:30 p.m. CT, Oct. 7, TBD

The Hawkeyes were rebuilding a rivalry it formed with Purdue back in the early 2000s when Jeff Brohm arrived in West Lafayette before the '17 season. Their contrasting styles made for entertaining games. Their clashes on the recruiting trail added fuel to the fire. 

The programs will reboot now that Brohm is back at his alma mater, Louisville. New Boilermaker coach Ryan Walters is familiar to Iowa having held it to just one offensive touchdown the last two seasons as Illinois' defensive coordinator. 

Purdue's O/U sits at 5.0 wins after it captured the West Division in '22. Switching from a program that leans on offense to one that depends on defense could be challenging in Year 1. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - Three Purdue University alumni have received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian award of the United States: Neil Armstrong, Brian Lamb, and John Wooden.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Purdue 7

Iowa at Wisconsin, TBA, Oct. 14, TBD

This will be the second week in a row that the Hawkeyes will be facing a new coaching staff at a West Division rival. Luke Fickell comes to Madison after leading Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff two seasons ago. 

The Badgers are expected to stray away from ground-and-pound offense with Phil Longo taking over as the coordinator and SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai (33 touchdown passes in '22) lining up at quarterback. They'll still find ways to get standout running back Braelon Allen the rock, but it might come more in spread formations instead of power. 

New defensive coordinator Mike Tressel, who came from Cincinnati with Fickell, runs a three-man front like his predecessor, Jim Leonhard. The new guy relies on a 3-3-5 alignment compared to Leonhard's 3-4-4. 

The Hawkeyes should have a better idea what that looks like by the time this game rolls around. We'll see if they can find more success than they have in most recent seasons against the Wisconsin defense. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - Former UW-Madison biochemist Harry Steenbock discovered how to enrich the vitamin D content of foods through irradiation in 1923. Vitamin D supplements (primarily in milk) eliminated the bone disease rickets, and is being used to combat osteoporosis, kidney disease and other diseases.

Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Iowa 16

Minnesota at Iowa, TBA, Oct. 21, TBD

Who hates Iowa? Fans of a Golden Gopher program that has not defeated the Hawkeyes since '14 and lost eight in a row in this series. Floyd of Rosedale last resided in Minnesota when current starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis was in elementary school. 

The Gophers see Michigan and Ohio State on their schedule this season. As a result, they likely will need to pull off an upset or two in the division to win the West. They would like nothing more than for one of them to occur in this spot. 

FanDuel puts the O/U for Minnesota at 7.5 wins, same as the Hawkeyes. No doubt, the Gophers have the more difficult schedule of the two and probably need to beat Iowa to hit the over. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - The University of Minnesota is one of five universities in the nation with an engineering school, medical school, law school, veterinary medicine school and agricultural school all on one campus.

Prediction: Iowa 23, Minnesota 20

Iowa vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field, TBA, Nov. 4, TBD

There's turmoil in Evanston with the hazing scandal that rocked the program this summer. It's hard imagining much success coming the Wildcats' way in '23. 

It dampens the enthusiasm for what has become a competitive series during the last few decades. At least there's the novelty of playing in a historic baseball venue adding interest to this one. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - Northwestern’s original mascot was a black bear cub from the Lincoln Park Zoo. It was deemed bad luck after a disastrous first season and banished from campus. 

Prediction: Iowa 42, Northwestern 3

Rutgers at Iowa, TBA, Nov. 11, TBD

It's an important season in Piscataway for coach Greg Schiano, his fourth one in stint No. 2 at Rutgers. It marks the halfway point of a contract paying him $32M. 

So far, he hasn't captured the magic he did with the Scarlet Knights when he led them from '01-11 and played in six bowls in his final seven seasons. He was named national coach of the year in '06. Since his return, they're 6-21 in the Big Ten. 

FanDuel has RU's O/U win total at 3.5. While it isn't going to challenge for the East championship, that number seems low considering what is coming back and arriving. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - Rutgers is named after Colonel Henry Rutgers, a Revolutionary War hero and philanthropist who donated a substantial amount of money to the school in the early 1800s. It was founded in 1766 and is the eighth-oldest higher education institution in the United States.

Prediction: Iowa 23, Rutgers 13

Illinois at Iowa, TBA, Nov. 18, TBD

The Illini and coach Bret Bielema, a Hawkeye alumnus, ended the program's eight-game skid in the series with a 9-6 rock-fight victory last year in Champaign. Iowa has won 13 of the last 15 meetings. 

It feels like the gap is closing between the schools from bordering states thanks to Bielema's improved recruiting efforts. It's being fueled by winning battles against Iowa for Illinois prep prospects. 

It will be Bielema's first trip to Kinnick Stadium with the Illini as he missed the '21 meeting due to a positive COVID test. It could end up being a very important game for two teams with designs on winning the West. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - Tide, Wrigley Gum, Pantene, Cottonelle, Kleenex, Cascade, Smirnoff Ice, Budweiser and Cheerios are products that were developed by Illinois chemical engineering graduates.

Prediction: Illinois 6, Iowa 2

Iowa at Nebraska, 11 a.m. CT, Nov. 24, CBS

Any returning member of the Hawkeye team should feel very motivated for this year's trip to Lincoln. Iowa will be looking to avenge a 24-17 loss to the Cornhuskers last November that kept it from winning the West. 

Like elsewhere in this division, there's a new coaching staff for Big Red. Coach Matt Rhule is returning to college after an uninspiring NFL stint. 

It's hard knowing how much progress Nebraska will have made with its rebuild, if any, by the time the Hawkeyes invade Memorial Stadium. The Huskers will be looking to end a four-game skid against Iowa in the historic venue. 

FanDuel shows Nebraska's O/U at 6.5 wins. That seems overly optimistic. 

Non-Sports Fun Fact - The University of Nebraska established the world’s first undergraduate psychology laboratory. The discipline of ecology was born there. 

Prediction: Iowa 28, Nebraska 16

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Overall Record: 9-3

Big Ten Record: 6-3