Breaking Down Kansas' Shot Distribution Heading Into Next Season
Bill Self is in the midst of the biggest offseason overhaul in recent history at Kansas, and it’s not over yet. Only two scholarship players remain from the 2022-23 squad (Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams) and another two spots are up for grabs with Zuby Ejoifor, Ernest Udeh, and Kyle Cuffe transferring.
The Hunter Dickinson news took over the college basketball news cycle and excited the Kansas fan base. Now Jayhawk fans are fantasizing about who else could be coming to Lawrence. That took a bit of a hit when five-star recruit Mackenzie Mgbako committed to Indiana over Kansas. Now, social media is filled with fans calling for the likes of North Dakota State transfer Grant Nelson, Creighton’s Arthur Kaluma, and fellow five-star Ron Holland.
At least the online aspect of KU faithful is looking at the best available players (which usually means scorers). Self’s moves so far aren't that far off. But it got me thinking, how are these roles going to shake out, and the bigger question, are there going to be enough shots for everyone? Self’s best teams are balanced, with future NBA talent, young players who are a year or two from breaking out, and glue players who hold the team together by doing all the little things.
What I wanted to find out is if there’s any more room for production with the final two roster spots. So I dove into the numbers.
Kansas averaged 59.5 field goal attempts per game last year, and that has been basically the average over the last three years. Here was how those shots were distributed in 2022-23. For this, I’m only including players who appeared in double-digit games (so no Cam Martin or Kyle Cuffe).
Field goal attempts per game
Jalen Wilson: 16
Gradey Dick: 10.9
Kevin McCullar: 8.1
Dajuan Harris: 7.7
KJ Adams: 7
Joseph Yesufu: 4.2
MJ Rice: 2.1
Bobby Pettiford: 1.8
Zach Clemence: 1.7
Ernest Udeh: 1.5
Zuby Ejoifor: 0.8
Let’s say next year’s team averages 60 attempts per game, which is reasonable given the style of the last three years. Only 14.7 shots per game are returning from last year. But that’s if we expect each of those players to remain stagnant.
Harris will be more pass-first than ever, but needs to be involved still from a play-making perspective. I think his number could still be around 7-8 shots per game. KJ would have taken a hit with Mgbako committing, but now should hover around that mark from last year, if not a bit more. Let’s pencil in 16 shots per game for those two.
That leaves 44 shots per game for the newcomers. Dickinson is a high-production player but his efficiency has let him put up those numbers on 13 shots per game the last two years. That gets us to the halfway point for the team as Dickinson is not the player who will be sacrificing shots.
Nick Timberlake also took 13 shots per game last year at Towson, and it’s safe to say that’s not happening next year. I think he’s more likely to go down to the Harris and KJ Adams range of 7-8 shots per game. Arterio Morris, who took four shots per game at Texas could do similarly (the Yesufu role) or slightly more. The transfers (so far) wrap up with Parker Braun, who will likely be Dickinson’s backup, playing 10-12 minutes a game. His role will not be shoot-first, but he’ll still get a couple of high-percentage attempts per game. Could he play the role of Mitch Lightfoot in KU’s championship year? Lightfoot played 12 minutes per game and took three shots in that season.
Then you have the freshman. Elmarko Jackson and Marcus Adams Jr. are going to be the most likely high-usage freshmen. Those two can probably split 10-12 shots between them. And it’s hard to see Chris Johnson or Jamari McDowell breaking through for more than a shot or two per game in year one.
So, going off this, a breakdown could look like:
Hunter Dickinson: 13 shots per game
KJ Adams: 8
Dajuan Harris: 8
Nick Timberlake: 7
Elmarko Jackson: 6
Marcus Adams 5
Arterio Morris: 5
Parker Braun: 3
Chris Johnson: 1
Jamari McDowell: 1
That’s already 57 shots. And remember, there are two open scholarship spots remaining. Now, someone has to take those shots and this is a heck of a lineup on paper to do that. But that also isn’t leaving a lot of room for two other established transfers or freshmen to make a big impact. A Nelson or Kaluma could get 6-8 shots per game and probably push Johnson and McDowell out of the rotation completely. And I still think it’s a long shot, but should Kevin McCullar come back, those 6-8 shots per game would fit in quite well.
There’s talk Kansas could decide not to use that final roster spot and put it toward the self-imposed scholarship ban. Otherwise, it might make sense for Kansas to use the final spot on a project or a glue guy. And that’s probably not a bad route to go. As we’ve seen, it’s hard to project a lineup even a year into the future. It would be great to get someone maybe a little raw with 2-3 years of eligibility after this year to take that spot and bide his time.
Because right now, most of Kansas’ offensive production has been accounted for by the players already signed. Jayhawk fans are always looking for more, but considering the turnover from last year to this year, Self has done about as well as could be asked.
