48 Days Until Kansas Football: TCU Preview
It’s going to feel like something is missing when TCU travels to Lawrence on October 8. That’s because for the first time since the Horned Frogs began playing Kansas as a member of the Big 12, they will be doing so without Gary Patterson at the helm.
It’s also the first time TCU will start a season without Patterson as head coach since 2001. Safe to say, this is going to take some getting used to.
Pre-Game Notes
Kansas and TCU first started meeting every year as conference foes in 2012, but the two programs actually played 28 times before then, with the first meeting going back to 1942. TCU has dominated the matchup so far, going 25-9-4. The last time the Jayhawks won was in 2018 when they eked out a 27-26 win. Though KU did come close in 2021, falling 31-28.
But more fascinating are the ties. It’s not just that the Jayhawks and Horned Frogs tied two years in a row in 1946 and 1947, it’s that both of those games ended 0-0. If you want to go down a rabbit hole, the newspaper clippings from games are an interesting read.
Mike Plank Four-Down Scouting Report
First Down
After a 3-5 start to the season last year, Jerry Kill took over for Gary Patterson. But now it’s Sonny Dykes becoming just the second full-time TCU head coach this century.
Dykes has made stops at Louisiana Tech and Cal but most recently was the head coach at SMU, going 30-18 in five seasons. The Mustangs made two bowl games during his tenure and were ranked at some point in the season each of the last three years.
Second Down
There is a two-man competition at quarterback between Max Duggan and Chandler Morris. Duggan is entering his senior year having already played in 32 games and attempted more than 800 passes in a Horned Frog uniform. Meanwhile, Morris is a former Oklahoma transfer who played in four games for TCU last year as a redshirt freshman, including throwing for 461 yards and two touchdowns against Baylor last year.
Third Down
It’s a new regime but there is a lot of returning production on the roster. TCU is bringing back at least 50% of its production in every major category on both sides of the ball. This includes All-Big 12 receiver Quentin Johnston, who is beginning to be talked about as a high-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
Fourth Down
TCU also has a new defensive coordinator in Joe Gillespie, who is bringing a new scheme with him. Instead of Patterson’s 4-2-5 defense, the Horned Frogs will be moving to a 3-3-5. The idea is that will help fix some of the major issues TCU had on defense last year. We’ll get to that next.
Matchup On Paper
TCU’s fan base will be hoping Dykes brings his offense from SMU with him to Fort Worth. The Mustangs were 10th, 15th, and 7th in points per game nationally the past three years under Dykes. SMU did this while throwing for more than 300 yards per game each year.
But it’s the defense that needs more improvement this year. According to Max Olson of The Athletic, “TCU’s defense allowed 7.2 yards per play, which tied with Kansas for fifth-worst nationally, and almost 7.4 per play in Big 12 games. They gave up by far the most explosive plays (75 of 20-plus yards) of any team in the conference and struggled against the run.” By struggling against the run, he meant letting 11 opposing backs rush for at least 100 yards and having the 122nd rush defense out of 130. Things should be better this year but Devin Neal should be ready to take advantage.
Way-too-Early Trend Lines
If recent history of KU-TCU matchups tells us anything, it’s that the game will either be within a touchdown or a complete blowout. Since 2014, the score has been within six points five times and 36 points or more the other three times.
The Horned Frogs ended last season just 1-4 against the spread but the over hit in three of those five games. And given Dykes’ offense and the fact that the defense will likely take time to adjust to a new scheme, the over is not a bad consideration.
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