COLUMN: Kentucky's Final Chance to Change Season Trajectory Begins Against South Carolina
Nothing about the 2022-23 season has gone according to plan for Kentucky basketball.
The camel's back is all but broken, as the Wildcats are 10-5 with zero Quadrant 1 wins, now in January. John Calipari's team is fresh off of a 26-point stomping, as Alabama bulldozed the unranked Cats, who received zero votes in the latest AP Poll. The word momentum is something that has eluded UK since the regular season began.
With the building blocks completely shattered and turned to rubble, the only way to try and make something positive happen in Lexington is...win basketball games.
While that may seem like an unattainable feat given the current status of the Wildcats, there is a superbly manageable stretch of games on the horizon. If any inkling of championship hopes are going to reappear for UK, it must begin on Tuesday night inside Rupp Arena.
South Carolina, this season's punching bag in the SEC, is the next opponent on the docket. The Gamecocks are 0-2 in conference play thus far, and are currently No. 264 (Q4) in the NET Rankings and No. 218 in KenPom, both of which are bottom-three amongst Power 5 programs.
Winning Tuesday's night matchup should (using that word very lightly) come with ease for the Wildcats. If it's a struggle to get past a team of that caliber, then go ahead and throw the last two-and-a-half months of the regular season away and forget any of the following words were ever written.
After that, another Q1 — and now top-five — opponent will step in the ring, as Kentucky will travel down to Knoxville for a clash against the surging No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers, who will likely enter the bout with a 14-2 record, barring a road upset from Vanderbilt.
Asking Kentucky to even look like a cohesive unit away from home is a tough ask, so a win inside Thompson-Boling Arena is unlikely. If the Rocky Top faithful matches the crowd intensity of last year's 76-63 win, then expect more of the same issues to emerge for the Cats.
Projected outcomes would place Kentucky at 11-6 (2-3 SEC) and still without hope that the season would turnaround. Obviously a Tennessee win would change that, but you won't find any prediction of the sort around here. It's the three-game stretch after the showdown in Knoxville that could serve as a final opportunity for UK to build some momentum.
The Cats will return home for a pair of conference games against bottom-half squads in Georgia and Texas A&M, both of whom are considered Q3 opponents as of Jan. 10. UGA hasn't won in Rupp Arena since 2009, while the Aggies have claimed victory in Lexington just once, back in 1978. Neither are expected to be in the 68-team field come March.
Following the mini home-stand comes the first feasible opportunity for a win on the road, as the annual trip down to Nashville to take on Vandy will take place on Jan. 24. The Cats will ride a 13-game winning streak over the Commodores into Memorial Gymnasium. Coach Jerry Stackhouse is slowly turning the program in the right direction, as the 'Dores are currently 118th in the NET and 97th in KenPom, so the game would currently serve as a chance for only Kentucky's second Q2 win of the season.
Say the Cats finally find a groove — even against subpar competition — and swing their way off the NCAA Tournament bubble onto solid ground, then one could mention "tweaks" and "turning the corner" without getting laughed at again. That Vanderbilt matchup leads into the Big 12 / SEC Challenge, which will witness the current-No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks enter Rupp with revenge on the mind.
Kentucky of course walked into Phog Allen Fieldhouse last January and blew away KU in an 80-62 smushing behind 27 points from former Cat Keion Brooks Jr. The Jayhawks would of course rebound and go on to win the NCAA Tournament — something that Calipari and his players are now looking back on to try and give this edition of UK some sort of hope moving forward.
That matchup against Kansas in less than three weeks on Jan. 28 will be pivotal...if the Wildcats can take care of business beforehand — which again, is far from a gimme. The final month of the regular season afterward currently features an additional five Q1 matchups — Arkansas, at Mississippi State, Tennessee, at Florida and at Arkansas — most all of which will likely remain that way when they arrive.
Most have already written Kentucky off this season, and rightfully so. Nothing that the Wildcats have shown on a basketball court this season suggests that the team is trending in the right direction.
While currently an all-systems failure, Calipari and the players have been quick to mention that exhausting phrase: "It's a long season." While usually used as a barrier to avoid discussing current error, it does hold some weight. There are 16 games left on the regular season schedule.
Suggesting Kentucky will finish the final stretch of games with just one or two losses would be an asinine take, but it's not impossible. The final chance for a season reversal is beginning now, and it starts with the Wildcats winning, at the very least, four of their next five games.
COLUMN: Kentucky basketball feels broken beyond repair.
More on Kentucky's loss to the Crimson Tide here.
More on Oscar Tshiebwe's lackluster performance here.
John Calipari addresses Texas rumors here.
WATCH: Calipari, Wheeler postgame
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