COLUMN: Kentucky Should be Worried About Making the NCAA Tournament
There are many statistics that you could cherry-pick when trying to decipher the absolute calamity that has been Kentucky basketball so far this season.
But one glaring stat stands out, as presented by ESPN insider Jeff Borzello:
If you aren't in-tune with college basketball metrics such as KenPom, this can be broken down much simpler in layman's terms: Kentucky has no victory to hang its hat on through one third of the regular season.
A 73-69 win over an unranked Michigan team in London, England is as good as its gotten for the Wildcats thus far. The next "best" comes via a 10-point ho-hummer over the mighty Yale Bulldogs.
When you talk about NCAA Tournament résumés, Kentucky quite frankly doesn't have one at all. That's not due to a lack of chances, either.
The average KenPom rating of the Wildcats' four losses — Michigan State, Gonzaga, UCLA and Missouri — is 23.25. MSU checks in at the lowest of the four at 44 and is the only team that wouldn't currently count as a Q1 opponent for Kentucky.
UK's losses to the trio of Q1 teams have all been clear cut. Gonzaga imposed its will from buzzer to buzzer. UCLA allowed the Cats' shell of an offense to amass just 53 points, while Mizzou boat raced them in what felt like much more than a 14-point victory.
The Wildcats are lost, and the upcoming slate of games in January won't provide the easiest route to get back on track. LSU will enter Rupp Arena after defeating top-10 Arkansas, then trips to Tuscaloosa and Knoxville headline the middle of the month. UK will close the harsh stretch of games with the SEC-Big 12 Challenge at home against Kansas, then another road clash in Oxford against Ole Miss.
Plenty of chances to build a somewhat-solid résumé are going to be available, but how could there be any expectations that the Cats will find wins on the road in conference play or hang with the defending champs?
ESPN's Joe Lunardi projected Kentucky as a No. 5 seed before the thrashing at Mizzou, but that felt more based on previous merit than anything. Now, Big Blue Nation shouldn't worry about what number is next to UK's name in March, because making the big dance is far from a guarantee.
When locations for the first and second weekends of the 2023 tournament were released, a clear path was staring UK dead in the face. A quick trip up to Columbus for the first two rounds, then an even quicker trip to Louisville to try and reach the Final Four. Those were the things that fans were speaking of before November, because those are the expectations that surround Kentucky basketball.
Now, fans are clamoring about whether or not Lance Ware is the right fit at the '4' spot. If that doesn't encapsulate where the Wildcats are right now, I don't know what does.
Coach John Calipari's group has nothing to fall back on if they don't succeed in the SEC over the next two months. Winning the conference feels like a far cry from reality, as teams like Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee seem gargantuan in stature compared to the measly Wildcats.
Calipari mentioned stepping up to the plate after the loss to the Tigers, but it seems as though his team hasn't even made it to the dugout. He says he has confidence in his team, but does his team have confidence in themselves? It sure doesn't look that way on the court. Does his team even have confidence in him to turn the ship around?
The talent was clear to see at the beginning of the season. Now, not so much. Jacob Toppin has regressed. CJ Fredrick has not been the sharpshooter that was promised. Calipari can't stop changing rotations, meaning minutes are fluctuating heavily for the secondary pieces off the bench.
There has been little-to-no progression through the first third of the season. The Wildcats currently have the make-up of a No. 2 seed...in the NIT.
Kentucky lacks toughness. Kentucky lacks grit. Kentucky lacks an identity. Kentucky hasn't won a game in the tournament since 2019.
It sure looks like that stat isn't on pace to change this March.
More on Kentucky's loss to Mizzou here.
More on CJ Fredrick's injury here.
More on John Calipari's postgame comments here.
Game notes from the loss can be found here.
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