Three Stats That Will End Kentucky Basketball's 2022-23 Season if Not Fixed
Kentucky basketball is set to enter the CBS Sports Classic this Saturday, Dec. 17, with the No. 13 ranking in the latest AP Poll and a 7-2 record.
There's been plenty of positive surprises, but there's also been some disappointment for coach John Calipari's group midway through the second month of the 2022-23 season.
Now, a big matchup looms against the No. 16 UCLA Bruins, who will enter Madison Square Garden fresh off a 87-60 win over the No. 20 Maryland Terrapins in College Park, MD. Following the clash in New York City, the Wildcats will return home for one final tune-up before the beginning of SEC play.
While there's still time to blossom into a perennial March Madness team, identity is starting to take shape, and there's some glaring issues on this edition of the Cats.
Calipari will make his January tweaks, and certain players on the roster not named Oscar Tshiebwe will emerge as top offensive options down the stretch, but what about those fundamental problems that have reared their heads thus far?
Here are three stats that could lead to the end of the Wildcats' season if they aren't addressed — and fixed — in the future:
FREE THROW PERCENTAGE
You knew this one was coming.
The Wildcats have knocked down 115 of 168 free-throw attempts through nine games this season. That's a 68.45 percent clip, good enough for the 238th-best mark (out of 363) in the nation.
UK is attempting just 18.7 free throws-per-game, which is No. 141 in the country, meaning the poor percentage from the charity stripe is put under a magnifying glass when you're getting there a measly amount. The Cats are making an average of 12.8-per-game, good for only the No. 159 spot in the land.
Starting guard Cason Wallace has been one of the biggest culprits thus far, as the true freshman is 8-14 (57 percent).
"I'm not used to missing this many free throws myself," Wallace said when speaking to reporters on Dec. 10. "So it's not something that I'm gonna get used to, or I want everybody else to get used to. So just practicing on it, making sure I'm still sharp on it and next game, I plan on not missing free throws."
Unfortunately, those misses at the line have become a tad too frequent. Forward Jacob Toppin has seen the most action from the spot, taking 31 attempts, but making just 20 of those looks, a 64-percent mark. Backup centers Ugonna Onyenso (57 percent) and Lance Ware (36 percent) have been poor, While Sahvir Wheeler (59 percent) is on pace for a career-low percentage.
One could roll the tape on numerous tournament runs that were stopped dead in its tracks via poor shooting from the stripe, most recently last season in the shocking Round of 64 loss to the Saint Peter's Peacocks.
If you don't make the freebies, they'll always come back to haunt you.
3-POINT ATTEMPTS PER-GAME
Calipari has never had a team average over 20 attempts from deep during his tenure in Lexington. At the beginning of the 2022-23 season, however, he made it clear that he wants that to change.
"This is probably a team that’s going to shoot 24, 25,” the head coach said after UK's season-opening win over Howard on Nov. 7. “If we really make ’em, we may shoot more. Because it’s not — you know people talk, ‘Just shoot threes’. It’s not that. It’s ‘make‘ threes. Make threes. … This team though, we’ve got a lot of guys that can make shots.”
Fast forward to the middle of December, and we aren't seeing the Wildcats make it to that mark. They are on pace to break the team-record under Calipari, though, as they currently average 21 shots from behind the arc per-game. That number puts Kentucky at No. 213 in the nation.
Of course, heaving shots from deep isn't always the answer, and it often hasn't been for Calipari-coached squads. However, there was a clear goal in-mind at the start of the year, and it hasn't been met. It has panned out in a way, as the Cats are shooting the trey-ball at a 39.1 percent clip, a top-30 percentage in Division I.
The issue is the hesitancy that we've seen derail solid shooting performances for Kentucky this season. Every game you see multiple shooters pass up on quick open looks that could've been taken, turning possessions into a pass fest that results in nothing but a poor look at the end of the shot clock.
Antonio Reeves is easily the leader in clubhouse with 27 makes on 56 looks (48 percent). It seemed as though CJ Fredrick would keep a solid pace with the Illinois State transfer, but some of that hesitancy has gotten ahold of the two-guard, causing a cold spurt that has seen him score multiple buckets in only one of UK's last five games. Fredrick's 3-point percentage currently stands at 35 percent, while he's taken 16 less shots from three than his fellow sharpshooter Reeves.
Wallace delivered one of the only moments where a 3-pointer has fallen due to letting it fly with no thoughts after catching a pass, as he hit a dagger of sorts that led the Cats to their first big win of the season over Michigan. His 16-31 mark (51 percent) is extraordinary, especially since he wasn't considered a terrific shooter upon arrival to Lexington.
Point guard Sahvir Wheeler will let if fly from downtown, but he isn't exactly the top option you're looking for when it comes to shots from anywhere outside of the paint.
Bottom line, Kentucky needs to shoot more 3-pointers. In this day and age of college basketball, you'd think that wouldn't be an issue, but the Cats are missing their quota. Get Fredrick going again, feed Reeves and allow your guards to do damage from the perimeter in bulk.
Not shooting the open looks when they come to you will burn bad, especially when you're going up against a smaller team in the tournament who has nothing to lose and is chucking deep balls up like there's no tomorrow. Take your opportunities.
TURNOVERS FORCED PER-GAME
Upon seeing Wallace grab eight steals in a game, while Oscar Tshiebwe is manning the paint and a bevy of other hard-nosed guards and forwards man the court, you might've thought that this Kentucky team was going to be really, really good defensively.
For the most part, it has been. Throw out the Gonzaga game and you've seen a put-together squad that can hold its own. But, that doesn't mean that its excelled like Wildcat teams are supposed to.
Forcing 13.89 turnovers-per-game puts Kentucky at No. 155 in the country. Above average, but not by too much. It should be noted that this includes six games against mid-major competition, most of which shouldn't have been on the court with the Cats in the first place.
Both Michigan State and Gonzaga had 18 turnovers in its wins over the Cats , but that's not to say that these were results of terrific defense on the part of Kentucky. There hasn't been near as much aggression on the defensive end as one may have thought coming into the season, just glancing at the group's strengths on that side of the basketball.
Wallace's 22 steals are the big reason as to why UK is as high as it is in this metric. After the guard, Tshiebwe is the next leader in takeaways at 11.
While teams like Bellarmine and Yale haven't seen crazy offensive success inside Rupp Arena, the teams have still been able to carry their style in games and even go on runs, making the UK defense look average.
If the defense can't take that next step and go up a notch when it's facing a red-hot team down the stretch, it'll only result in negatives.
More on the win over Yale here.
More on Oscar Tshiebwe's towering performance against the Bulldogs here.
More on CJ Fredrick's shooting struggles here.
Watch John Calipari post-game here.
Game notes for the victory can be found here.
Kentucky moved up three spots to No. 13 in the latest AP Poll.
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