Miami at North Carolina: Analysis and Prediction

Predicting the final score of Miami at North Carolina.

The Miami Hurricanes will play at North Carolina at 7 p.m. on ESPN just 48 hours after knocking offLouisville 93-85.

There will be three key factors to tonight’s contest, so let’s jump right into the fray before generating a final score prediction.

1) Miami absolutely must start fast 

That includes all of the following: Not allowing UNC’s guards to get off to a hot start. Remember, as noted in this morning’s article about Miami and UNC trends, the Tar Heels knocked down 15 3-point baskets against Clemson.

Miami has been known for its defense, but then again, Louisville just hit 10 shots behind the arc, too. Nothing remotely close to that total can happen tonight for the Canes to win.

Slow big man Armando Bacot down. Miami will not stop him, but he needs to score fewer than 15 points. That’s realistic. He’s averaged 17.6, and can easily top 20 points if Miami’s defensive rotation does not do its job. The last subpoint to point No. 1 here, Miami must pass the basketball well.

The last two games were great examples of team offensive basketball. If shooters like Isaiah Wong and Nigel Pack get clean looks off good passes, Miami has a great opportunity to earn a difficult on-the-road ACC victory.

2) Control the emotions 

This is really short and sweet. Teams that wilt inside the Dean Smith Center usually do so within a brief three-to-five minute stretch that includes total collapse. A 10-0 or 15-2 run ensues, and UNC comes out victorious.

Miami cannot allow that to happen, especially with veteran guards that know how to handle the pressure on the road.

It starts with bad shot selection and/or live-ball turnovers. That’s why the point above about Miami passing well means so much. A possible 3-point bucket can turn into a breakaway dunk for the Tar Heels if Miami is not careful with the ball.

Again, this is basic stuff. There’s going to be a stretch where Miami’s shots do not fall. Will players for the Hurricanes remain composed? Will they still stay dialed into the defensive end of the court?

This point is huge. Miami must remain composed regardless of their emotions; that means for 40 minutes.

3) Make the crucial play 

This contest will likely go down to the wire. There could be a loose ball, a long rebound where a player from each side has a shot to get to it first, or even a chance to take a charge and be a true team player.

Whatever it is – and it doesn’t matter if it’s a primary stat play or not – Miami’s players must come up with the momentum-changing plays.

Prediction

UNC has been all over the place this season. They are as unpredictable as any team in college basketball. After the Heels destroyed Clemson 91-71 this past weekend, can they play like that two games in a row?

Miami was sleepwalking versus Louisville whether they want to admit it or not, i.e. looking past the Cardinals and awaiting this game. That will not happen tonight.

Miami 78 North Carolina 76

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