NCAA Tournament: Miami vs Drake Preview and Prediction
It’s gameday. The Miami Hurricanes will take on the Drake Bulldogs in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Here’s the breakdown of the game details, gambling odds, statistics, starting lineups (perceived, at least, with Norchad Omier’s status to be discussed below), analysis, and matchups to watch, players off the bench, and multiple predictions (yes, multiple).
Game Setting
Location: Albany, N.Y.
Gym: MVP Arena
Game Time: 7:25
TV: TBS
NCAA Seeds: #5 Miami, #12 Drake
Betting Lines, SI Sportsbook
Odds: Miami -2 over Drake
Over/Under: 146
Money Line: Miami (-138), Drake (+110)
KenPom Rankings
(National Ranking)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: Miami +15.08 (43), Drake +12.30 (67)
Adjusted Offense: Miami 118.3 (11), Drake 109.7 (99)
Adjusted Defense: Miami 103.2 (132), Drake 97.4 (46)
NCAA Rankings
Scoring Offense: Miami 79.4 (25), Drake 75.3 (88)
Scoring Defense: Miami 72.1 (242), Drake 63.9 (31)
Rebounding margin: Miami 34.6 to 31.9 for +2.7 (97), Drake 35.7 to 32.5 for +3.2 (79)
Projected Starting Lineups
Miami Hurricanes
G Nijel Pack, 6-0, 185, 13.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg
G Isaiah Wong, 6-4, 185, 16.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.4 apg
G Wooga Poplar, 6-5, 190, 8.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 apg
G Jordan Miller, 6-7, 15.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.7 apg
F Norchad Omier, 6-7, 250, 13.6 ppg, 1.3 apg
Drake Bulldogs
G Garrett Sturtz, 6-3, 180, 9.5 ppg, 6.3 apg, 1.1 apg
G Sardaar Calhoun, 6-6, 210, 7.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.3 apg
G Tucker DeVries, 6-7, 210, 19.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.8 apg
G Conor Enright, 6-0, 180, 4.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.6 apg
F Darnell Brodie, 6-10, 275, 8.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.1 apg
Analysis
The above lineups were left just like they were for the last contest, Omier included. Thus, using the word projected for the starting lineups.
Will Omier play for the Hurricanes? Will he be remotely healthy enough to bang in the post, dropstep and dunk, challenge a Drake player at the rim and block a shot?
In short, nobody knows; it’s the great unknown. Canes head coach Jim Larranaga isn’t going to just hand out that information, and even after the opening tip there’s no guarantee that Omier will be capable of sustaining a consistent pace, assuming he actually takes to the court.
With that in mind, matchups to think about that do not involve Omier.
How will Jordan Miller defend tonight? Will he stay glued to Drake’s Tucker DeVries, the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year? Could he instead defend a combination of players?
Miami’s defense has been good at switching all season long. The ultra-athletic Hurricanes have speed and length across the starting lineup and off the bench. So, switching screens down low and up top could take place once again.
The other question will be how well the Canes can continuously get a hand in DeVries face no matter which defender he goes against, as well as staying in front of him when he places the basketball on the deck; he has proven to be adept at taking the ball to the bucket throughout the season. There’s another overall thought process that comes into play for the Canes.
Omier's ankle injury places a lot of questions on tonight's contest.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
If Omier’s ankle injury does not allow him to play, will the Canes want to play a little more uptempo? Perhaps even press?
Without his 250-pound frame in the lane, it might be more advantageous for Miami to play up-and-down the court and limit Drake’s halfcourt sets.
For Drake, they have a truly difficult task of their own. How do the Bulldogs keep the speedy Hurricanes from driving the lane and scoring the basketball, while also not having to give much, if any help away from Miami’s 3-point shooters?
Miami holds the speed advantage and that could lead to the Canes getting into the lane and creating a variety of different scoring options. If Drake cannot play quality defense without helping, Miami will have ample opportunities to score inside the paint and above the 3-point line.
Bench Players to Watch
For Miami, it obviously starts with Anthony Walker, the 6-foot-9 forward that was the primary player to help replace Omier after he was injured against Duke one week ago today.
He played 24 minutes against the Blue Devils, scoring 6 points, grabbing four rebounds, and blocking 1 shot.
Even if Omier does play, it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to take up traditional minutes, i.e. Walker’s services will be needed more than usual tonight.
How Walker helps to play defense against Drake’s Darnell Brodie in the paint will be critical to help the Miami defense to once again be aggressive on the perimeter in an effort to create turnovers that lead to fastbreaks.
RELATED: How will Miami Defend Darnell Brodie?
As for Drake, a particular guard could see extended action. With Miami’s smaller and athletic lineup (with or without Omier), look for Drake head coach Darian DeVries to lean on D.J. Wilkins. He’s averaged 8.2 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game.
Adding the 6-foot-2 Wilkins into the lineup will be another athletic player that can score, while also someone that can at least help attempt to slow down Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar, Miller, Bensley Joseph, Harold Beverly, and ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong.
Overall, Wong, Pack, and the Canes will be playing a quality Drake team that has a future NBA wing player in DeVries. This will be a fun contest to watch with a lot of 3-point bombs being shot.
Prediction #1
If Omier can play 25 or more minutes, while not being truly hobbled, Miami will gut this game out. His presence in the paint would allow Miami’s speed to cause too many rushed shots for Drake.
Miami 78 Drake 74
Prediction #2
Without Omier playing at all or only for a few minutes because he just cannot be effective, this will be a completely different game.
That would change numerous defensive factors for the Canes, including shot blocking and defensive rotation. No Omier means Drake will hit a higher percentage of its shots, and be able to dictate to Miami’s defense much easier than with Omier in the paint. There would also be losing 13.6 points per game.
Drake 78 Miami 75
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