Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Miami Hurricanes: Projecting Offensive Statistics
The Miami Hurricanes 2022 offense is one many would like to toss aside, with poor play calling and a plethora of injuries being prime culprits. For 2023, the roster has more talent, a new offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson, and there is excitement to see what the Canes offense can do.
That's why Mario Cristobal brought in Dawson in the first place. He is someone with a proven coaching track record as a position coach and as a coordinator. It's going to be an interesting transition with him leading the offense. His unit will still need to be a part of a team effort, however.
Do note, the results of the Miami defense will be critical to help ignite the 2023 offensive output. Creating short fields with turnovers and increasing the number of three-and-out possessions for the opposition must go way up for any of the following offensive projections to come to fruition. With more talent in the fold, Miami’s defensive unit will be significantly better in categories, honestly (more on that before the season starts).
Here are some statistical predictions for the offense overall. Do keep in mind that that this is my own statistical analysis and does not represent anyone else here at All Hurricanes.
The following numbers are in order as follows: The first number will be Miami's 2023 projection. The second number would be the official 2022 statistics for comparison.
Points Per Game: 37.8/23.6
Rushing Yards Per Game: 190.2/128.3
Rushing Touchdowns: 28/12
Passing Touchdowns: 30/18
Passing Yards Per Game: 286.9/239.1
Total Yards Per Game:
Third Down Conversion Percentage: 47%/40%
Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 70%/54.2%
Turnover Total: 16/25
Sacks Allowed: 18/37
Rushing Plays of 20-Plus Yards: 24/9
Passing Plays of 20-Plus Yards: 64/33
Now for some clarification for why the above numbers are being chosen.
Overall, this offensive unit will be quite different, and the results will be as well. Look, last season’s play calling was a travesty. Undefinable would be another way to describe it.
Coupled with the ridiculous number of injuries, the Canes just found ways to struggle time and time again. Thinking about what’s now in Coral Gables, there’s plenty of room for optimism. A comparison can also help paint the picture.
Dawson’s offensive philosophy has often thrived with speedy receivers, just as a starting point. For proof, dig through the receiving numbers for his first season as the offensive coordinator at West Virginia in 2012, where Geno Smith, at quarterback, and receivers Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin, went off.
Bailey and Austin combined, they caught 224 passes for 2,914 yards and 37 touchdowns. That's from just one season!
Now, Miami will likely spread it around more than that WVU team did, and having Xavier Restrepo and Colbie Young, among others, will get the party started. Having Tyler Van Dyke – a talented senior quarterback – will make the transition to Dawson’s offensive scheme far better as well. He's a great fit for what Miami is doing this season, and will aid Restrepo in catching a lot of passes.
Let's talk more about the offensive balance, including the big guys. With the additions of Javion Cohen at guard and Matt Lee at center, the Hurricanes will look much better just with those two players competing. That's a big deal.
Look for this year's unit to be one of the most improved offensive lines in all of college football. That’s a good reason why the Canes will blast their way into the end zone quite often this upcoming season.
Featuring a runner like Henry Parrish, Jr., a player that finds the smallest of holes to run through and create big plays, there's reason to believe Miami's offense can be a pick your poison type of unit to defend, run or pass. Miami also has some bigger runners like Mark Fletcher at Dawson's disposal, and different types of receivers and tight ends, too. All the weapons aside, there does need to be discussion about Miami players handling the football.
Miami was absolutely awful at losing fumbles last season. In total, that sum was 13. Time to prove that number goes down and significantly.
From quarterback to all the other skill positions, ball security needs a 180-degree change in direction. If not, the Canes will rack up a lot of yardage and still lose games to quality opponents like Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Florida State.
The interception total of 12 obviously needs to be reduced as well. With Van Dyke healthy for 12 games, that will be the case. Last season, a combined 25 turnovers ranked the Canes No. 118 in the country. That's mind-numbing and cannot remotely come close to happening this upcoming season. Protect the football!
If that area is improving as well, Miami will surprise numerous people across the college football landscape when the final win tally is finalized. All the other pieces are there to be an explosive offense.
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