Why Miami Beats Virginia
After being out versus Clemson, Miami Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke will be back from injury versus Virginia. Not all of Miami's injury news has been good, but Van Dyke having been back behind center was good to hear.
Now, here's how the now much healthier Hurricanes will have defeated Virginia when all has been said and done.
1) Virginia has used its element of surprise by defeating North Carolina.
Beyond injuries, the biggest factor for which team wins a college football game is often sheer motivation. When a coaching staff yells at their players during the week, “You better take these guys seriously,” it sometimes falls on deaf ears.
One might think that Mack Brown’s North Carolina players fell to that distinction this past week by losing 31-27 – as a 24-point home favorite – to Virginia. In fact, hard to imagine that was not a prime factor for UNC losing. For reference, Miami has been placed as a considerable favorite versus Virginia as well.
Yes, the Cavaliers shocked the Tar Heels. The cat has come out of the bag though. There shall not be any surprise inside of Hard Rock Stadium. Virginia’s improvement was already on display and Miami players will have taken notice.
2) Miami’s rushing defense has been tremendous.
Having examined all three teams in question with Virginia, North Carolina, and Miami, the Hurricanes will win this matchup versus the Cavaliers’ rushing attack.
UNC allowed UVA to rush 54 times for 228 yards, a 4.2 average, and 3 touchdowns. The Cavaliers had 221 yards on the ground the game prior against William & Mary, as its rushing game began to take shape. It did hammer the Tar Heels though, and it was unexpected.
On the season, the Tar Heels have allowed 130.1 yards per game on the ground, good for 54th in the country. Miami has been much better versus the run.
To date the Canes allowed 79.6 yards per game, good for 7th in the nation. Players like Francisco Mauigoa at middle linebacker, and Rueben Bain, Jr. along the defensive line, have been stuffing the opposition.
Based on the data just past the midway point of the 2023 season, it’s hard to believe that UVA will consistently move the football on the ground versus the Hurricanes' vaunted rushing defense.
3) After seeing both schools perform, team speed favored Miami.
The above statement could be considered just too simplified for some people, but football has never been a sport where the base metrics needed to be defined in a lab, however. The Canes have speed across the board, and it’s going to be hard for UVA to adjust.
In particular, by the end of the game, look for Virginia’s defense to have struggled with keeping Miami’s offensive skill position players from making big plays.
Whether it was a Henry Parrish, Jr. bursting past the UVA defense for a score, or a slip screen that Jacolby George weaves through traffic for a touchdown, Miami’s skill talent will have been too much for Virginia by game’s end.
4) The turnover binge has concluded.
Miami went through a horrific stretch versus Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Nine total turnovers were too much to overcome. Back on track versus Clemson by having turned the ball over only once via an Emory Williams interception (the wide receiver was allegedly in the wrong spot), do not expect UVA to benefit from a bunch of Miami mishaps.
Having seen what not turning the football over did for themselves, one can bet that Miami players are more aware of protecting the football. Since the Canes hold a decided overall talent advantage, that point will have spelled doom for UVA when the fourth-quarter clock struck all zeroes.
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Fan Nation High school football recruiting analyst covering the state of Florida, as well as across the Southeastern United States and the state of Texas.