The Grove Report

Ex-Ole Miss Receiver AJ Brown has Highest Over/Under Props for Super Bowl LVII

Former Ole Miss Rebels receiver AJ Brown is currently the betting favorite to be the leading wideout of Super Bowl LVII.

Ben King

OXFORD, Miss. -- If you intend on putting some coin down for player proposition bets for Super Bowl LVII you may want to consider betting on Philadelphia Eagles receiver AJ Brown.

According to SI Betting, the former Ole Miss Rebel has recently been named the betting favorite to lead all receivers in receiving yards in Super Bowl LVII. Brown is also the fourth choice in the Super Bowl MVP futures market (+1600).

In his first season with the Eagles, Brown has recorded career-highs in targets (159), receptions (95), receiving yards (1,546), and touchdowns (11).

This is the current player proposition market for Brown with breakdowns for each category.

Receptions:

Over 5.5 (+115) | Under 5.5 (-175)

Brown finished 13th among all wideouts with 88 receptions. He is averaging five receptions per game in 19 games as a member of the Eagles and will encounter a Chiefs’ defense that surrendered 13.3 receptions per game to wide receivers. The veteran’s under 5.5 projection in Super Bowl LVII finds prohibitive juice (-175) thanks to the fact that Brown has hauled in four or less receptions in five of his last seven games (71.4%), including playoffs. A deeper dive reveals that despite being the clear WR1 in Philadelphia’s offense, Brown has only eclipsed this projection in five of 19 games (26.3%) since coming over from Tennessee.

Receiving Yards:

Over 71.5 (-120) | Under 71.5 (-125)

Jalen Hurts‘s top weapon posted a career-best 1,496 receiving yards in the regular season, ranking fourth among receivers. After averaging 81.3 receiving yards per game this season, bettors find a projection that is 10 yards off his season average on the game’s biggest stage. Brown will now face a Chiefs’ pass defense that has allowed 17 wideouts to surpass 71.5 receiving yards in a game (regular season and playoffs). Dating back to 2012, 24 wide receivers in Super Bowl history have surpassed this projection of 71.5 receiving yards. If Kansas City’s top corner L’Jarius Sneed is unable to clear concussion protocol, Brown could dominate.

Longest Reception:

Over 25.5 (-120) | Under 25.5 (-110)

Bettors at SI Sportsbook find oddsmakers listing Brown with an over/under of 25.5 on his longest reception - a number he has outperformed an eye-popping 12 times in 19 games (63.2%) in his first year on Broad Street. The Chiefs’ secondary has allowed 23 players to haul in a reception over this demand in 19 games this season. Over the last six Super Bowls, bettors will find that a whopping 21 players have hauled in a reception over this projection in the Big Game.

Touchdown Markets:

First (+900) | Last (+875) | Anytime (+130)

Over 0.5 Receiving TD (+130)

| Under 0.5 Receiving TD (-200)

The ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market finds Brown with the fourth-lowest odds (+125), behind only Hurts, Travis Kelce, and Mile Sanders. Brown is in a scoring drought, only finding the end zone once over his last six games. However, in his first 13 games as a member of the ‘Birds, the powerful wideout scored 11 touchdowns, which helped him rank tied for third among all wideouts this season.

Brown will encounter a Kansas City pass defense that has allowed a league-high 35 passing touchdowns - 22 of which were hauled in by wide receivers.

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Ben King
BEN KING

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