Penn State Men's Basketball Season Preview, Predictions

Can the Nittany Lions return to the NCAA Tournament under new coach Mike Rhoades?

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. | The last time we saw Penn State men's basketball, Micah Shrewsberry finished off a surprising NCAA Tournament run and ostensibly was gearing for an important Year 3 with the best recruiting class in program history. Instead, Shrewsberry left for Notre Dame four days Penn State's season ended, and Mike Rhoades entered to start the program anew again. 

Rhoades has assured Penn State fans that he is here to stay and intends to build a winning program in his home state. He gets his first chance at 7 p.m. ET Monday, when the Nittany Lions open the 2023-24 regular season against Delaware State to kick off the regular season (the game is available on B1G+). Let’s take the temperature of Penn State men's basketball ahead of what should be a fascinating season.

What will Mike Rhoades' team look like?

Shrewsberry’s offense was high-powered in 2022-23, shooting 3-pointers at high volume and looking to run in transition (whenever Jalen Pickett wasn’t booty-balling his way to the basket, at least). Shrewsberry's first team in 2021-22, however, was much more defensively focused while his team gelled.

Expect a hybrid of those two seasons during Rhoades’ tenure, especially this year as the coach built his first roster with nine transfers. VCU ranked among the nation’s top 25 scoring defenses in four of Rhoades’ six years as head coach. As good as the Rams were defensively, they regularly ranked in the bottom half in scoring.

Rhoades’ Lions will wear down opponents with aggressive defense , look to slow the pace and use the whole shot clock offensively. Penn State has talked about deploying a fast-paced offense, but that aspect probably will be more visible with drives to the basket and fast passing rather than shooting early in possessions. The Lions will shoot a lot as well. Rhoades has put some emphasis on driving and kicking while adding bigs who will stretch the floor.

Where will Penn State finish in the Big Ten?

Penn State almost certainly will finish lower than a season ago, when it was ninth in the Big Ten at 10-10. The conference is top heavy, with Purdue returning National Player of the Year Zach Edey, Michigan State boasting one of the best backcourts in the country and Indiana returning plenty of talent while adding to it.

The middle of the Big Ten will be most interesting to watch. Can Wisconsin return to its winning ways with a ton of returners? Iowa, Illinois, Maryland and even Ohio State have some of the more intriguing rosters. Therefore, it’s probably best to expect Penn State to finish in the third tier between 10th-14th.

Who are Penn State's breakout players to watch?

I’ll make two selections for breakouts: forwards Nick Kern Jr. and Zach Hicks. It’s hard to pick a breakout player while so much of this team is new, but these two stood out when analyzing the roster.

Kern, one of two transfers to follow Rhoades from VCU, has shown some scoring potential in the Lions’ offseason exhibitions. He led the team with 17 points in a summer game in the Bahamas and put up nine against Robert Morris at the end of October. Kern appeared in every game as a sophomore at VCU and started the final 19. He should add consistency and length as a wing, shooting above 50 percent from the field in his career.

Hicks is a fun one. At 6-8, he’ll see most of his time at the four spot but will not be afraid to let loose from deep. He got the start and shot 10 times from behind the arc against Robert Morris, making just two but providing a clear sign of how Rhoades intends to play him. The junior transferred from Temple after leading the Owls in 3-point shooting in each of his first two years, shooting at a 36.3 percent clip.

Penn State's Nick Kern Jr., who transferred from VCU, is a player to watch for the Nittany Lions this season :: Max Ralph/AllPennState

Which game is the biggest?

Penn State’s schedule is loaded with unique games. The Lions will play an NCAA Tournament rematch against Texas A&M at a Thanksgiving tournament in Florida, meet Georgia Tech at Madison Square Garden, visit The Palestra again and return to Rec Hall for the first time since 2015. (Check out the full schedule.)

I’ll roll with the Return to Rec game on Feb. 21 against Illinois as the biggest to circle. Playing in Rec Hall will rile up Penn State basketball diehards and maybe bring in some new believers. But on a larger scale, it proves athletic director Pat Kraft, Rhoades and the rest of the administration want to get people excited about this program. Not to mention that Penn State and Illinois have crossed paths a lot in recent history (see Pickett’s record 41-point game and a Big Ten Tournament matchup).

Could Penn State return to the NCAA Tournament?

It’s a long shot, to say the least. There will be many parallels between Rhoades’ first year and Shrewsberry’s first year. I fully expect Penn State to beat teams this season in games it has no business winning, while it could just as easily drop some head-scratchers. VCU transfer Ace Baldwin Jr. is a star and will lead this unit to wins, but it’s more of a wait-and-see situation with the rest of the roster, making a return trip unlikely.

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Max Ralph is a Penn State senior studying Broadcast Journalism with minors in sports studies and Japanese. He previously covered Penn State football for two years with The Daily Collegian and has reported with the Associated Press and Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Follow him on Twitter (X) @maxralph_ and Instagram @mralph_59.

AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network.