Penn State Draft Stock Update: One Nittany Lion Rises, One Falls

Tight end Theo Johnson has boosted his draft stock ahead of the NFL Scouting Combine.

Looking for a rising star in the 2024 NFL Draft? Check out Penn State's Theo Johnson. Following a superb year with the Nittany Lions and a strong performance at the Senior Bowl, Johnson is climbing the NFL Draft mocks and projections. One ESPN analyst said Johnson could be the third tight end selected this year.

"Theo Johnson is on the rise, definitely," ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller said in an ESPN conference call.

A record 10 Penn State football players are headed to the 2024 NFL Combine in Indianapolis, where draft mocks enter their next evolution. Miller called this pre-combine time a correction period, during which scouts begin separating individual players. Two Nittany Lions have watched their draft stock move: one up, one down. Here's a look at each, according to ESPN's Miller.

Theo Johnson

Miller said that Johnson's stock has risen because he fills an NFL appetite for tight ends with size and field presence. Johnson (6-6, 260 pounds) proved that at Penn State, where he was among the team's most dependable pass-catchers last season.

The All-Big Ten tight end caught 32 passes in 2023, getting better as the season advanced. He caught six for touchdowns, including a 21-yarder against Michigan State in his most productive game of the season. Johnson played a limited number of snaps against Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, then had a very productive week at the Senior Bowl. He turns toward the NFL Scouting Combine with another chance to climb draft boards.

"I think there's a good chance he's the third tight end drafted, just because there's such an appetite for that wide tight end, that big, nasty, inline tight end who does a great job in the middle of the field," Miller said. "No, you're not flexing them out and asking them to play wide receiver, but they're super-reliable players. But I do think that his stock is on the rise."

Chop Robinson

Meanwhile, Robinson seems to be going through a bit of stock correction. Though ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. listed Robinson as a first-rounder in his initial mock draft in January, more recent mocks from others have projected Robinson out of the first round. Miller said he hasn't had Robinson among his first-round players for a while.

"This time of year is big on correcting [evaluations] almost," Miller said. "I’ve never had the top-20 grades on Chop Robinson. I think he’s somewhere right around 45 to 50 for me. My biggest thing is going to be size and strength. I didn’t feel like he played with great strength, especially in the run game, at Penn State."

Penn State listed Robinson at 6-3, 254 pounds, about which Miller wasn't sure. As a result, Miller said that Robinson's measurements and performance at the NFL Combine could help him chart a new course.

"He does not look 250 pounds, so next week is going to be big," Miller said. "OK, are you 6-3, 250 or are you 6-2, 235? Where is the actual size at? That might sound like a small factor, but you’re looking at how much bigger can this player get? How are they going to produce against the run if they are sub-250 pounds? 

"... I think that’s where we’re at right now. As people in the media talk to more people with teams or as we have time to catch up and watch more tape of individual players instead of actual teams, you start to formulate some of those more defined opinions on players. If I had to guess, that’s why you see him dropping in rankings and mock drafts. But for me, he’s been kind of consistently in that 40-50 range for a while."

Johnson has plenty of time to improve his draft prospectus, beginning at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, scheduled for Feb. 29-March 3 in Indianapolis. Penn State will hold its annual Pro Day later in March. The 2024 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 25-27.

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