Penn State Vs. Michigan Preview, Predictions
Having picked itself up from that Columbus knockdown, Penn State football re-enters the ring Saturday for one more shot at the belt. Penn State hosts Michigan in the first matchup of top-10 teams at Beaver Stadium since 2018. It's also James Franklin's last chance of this regular season to deliver the victory that will get his program out of the "great" zone.
Will it happen? And if so, how?
Penn State (8-1) vs. Michigan (9-0)
When: Noon ET Saturday
Where: Beaver Stadium
TV: FOX
Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)
Betting Line: Michigan is a 4.5-point favorite, per DraftKings
Series History: Michigan leads 16-10
Last Meeting: Michigan 41-17 in 2022
The Story Line
No, not that one. These teams will play a game; billable hours can't prevent that. And the result will hinge on Penn State's offense. Michigan's defense, even if it has played the nation's 111th-ranked schedule, is the nation's most efficient, having allowed just six touchdowns in nine games. No other team has allowed fewer than 10. Penn State, ranked third nationally in scoring defense, has allowed 13. Moreover, Michigan's opponents have reached the red zone only 11 times. Chances are few, so the Lions have to capitalize on every one.
That means quarterback Drew Allar must follow the best game of his career with an even better one. Allar played free last week at Maryland, buoyed by his game-winning throw against Indiana and the Terps' inviting Cover 0 defense. Michigan is much sharper, and has better common sense, on defense, which means Allar will face more complicated looks. He'll get hit, be goaded into interceptions (Michigan leads the Big Ten with 12) and might even throw one. His response needs to be, try to make me throw two. Penn State's 19-year-old quarterback can deliver the program's biggest regular-season win in seven years if he plays with that approach.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar completed 25 of 34 passes for 240 yards and four touchdowns against Maryland.
Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports
Penn State Players to Watch
Dante Cephas: The receiver arrived for Penn State at just the right time. Cephas' two touchdown receptions at Maryland, both on deft catches in an end-zone corner, provided him with a psychological boost and Allar with a needed second receiver. "I feel I'm the most confident and comfortable I've ever been," Cephas said after the game.
Adisa Isaac: Penn State's stars need to show out, and Isaac has been an edge-rushing star. The team's leader in sacks (6.5) and tackles for loss (10.5) must become J.J. McCarthy's blind-side nightmare. He also will play a key role in containing running back Blake Corum to force third-and-longs.
Kalen King: The standout cornerback sought a fresh start after a difficult day against Marvin Harrison Jr. and Ohio State. Michigan doesn't have a Harrison, but King will get a workout against Roman Wilson, who has turned 10 of his 36 catches into touchdowns.
Michigan Players to Watch
J.J. McCarthy: Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has called McCarthy the best quarterback in school history, a list that includes Tom Brady and himself. In fact, Harbaugh called McCarthy "Tom Brady in his preparation and his in his willingness to be coached." Watch McCarthy most intently on third down, when he has an otherworldly efficiency rating of 209.04.
Zak Zinter: Watch a right guard? Yes, if he's as skilled as Zinter. Among Pro Football Focus' top-graded interior linemen, Zinter leads a line that has allowed just 11 sacks and a Big Ten-low 29 tackles for loss.
Mike Sainristil: Sainristil leads a secondary that ranks second in the Big Ten in pass-efficiency rating allowed (95.6) and has an astonishing INT/TD ratio (12/4). Sainristil, a former receiver, has three of those interceptions (two of which he returned for touchdowns) but also has allowed three of those passing touchdowns.
Predictions
Max Ralph: If not now, when? Penn State has been itching for an upset victory for years and came up way short again at Ohio State. Michigan may be an even deeper team than the Buckeyes, but the difference this weekend is Drew Allar. He finally came out of his shell as the Indiana game wound down and exploded against Maryland. He and the receiving corps will be the deciding factor in this one, with a lot of help from Kaytron Allen's physical running. This defense is getting healthy and has learned a heck of a lot since giving up 418 yards to Michigan one year ago. It's bold, and maybe unlikely, but this is Penn State's time to shine. Penn State 27, Michigan 23.
Mark Wogenrich: Penn State has plenty going its way: Drew Allar's unleashed confidence, Kaytron Allen's unstoppable drive and a defense flush with pass-rush talent (particularly if Chop Robinson returns). Meanwhile, the best team Michigan has played is (no offense) Rutgers. The Wolverines established their three-phase dominance against a mediocre schedule that hasn't stressed them whatsoever. The Lions will deliver that first test. Trouble is, it won't be enough against J.J. McCarthy, that defense and a roster galvanized by being the villain du jour. Michigan 24, Penn State 20.
More on Penn State
Penn State's Kaytron Allen: 'I can't be denied'
Scouting Penn State's path to victory vs. Michigan with Mike Golic Jr.
James Franklin addresses Michigan allegations, Jim Harbaugh's status
A Penn State-Michigan subplot: Dueling children's books!
Nittany Lions "hopeful" for Chop Robinson's return against Michigan
Will Michigan's Jim Harbaugh coach against Penn State?
AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
