ESPN's Early 2024 SP+ Rankings Love Penn State

The Nittany Lions earn an early top-10 ranking according to ESPN's predictive model.

The ESPN SP+ college football index loved Penn State last season. The Nittany Lions finished fifth in the final rankings, ahead of playoff participants Texas and Alabama, despite losing three games, including its Peach Bowl appearance against Ole Miss. Penn State ranked highly across the board in the SP+ metrics, led by its No. 4 defense that helped get coordinator Manny Diaz the head-coaching job at Duke.

The first ESPN SP+ rankings of 2024 debuted Wednesday, more than six months ahead of the season, and they still appreciate the Nittany Lions. Penn State football debuts at No. 7 in the initial rankings, outpacing their too-early predictions for the 2024 season. Penn State, which ranked 13th in the final AP Top 25 after a 10-3 season, landed between 8 and 18 in the January projections, hitting a median of about No. 11. That seems fair for a program incorporating three new coordinators and losing five defensive starters.  

Of note: The ESPN SP+ is not a traditional ranking system. It's a predictive model meant to project game outcomes based on a variety of inputs. As the SP+ primer states, its model considers returning production, recruiting and recent results.

Penn State was a darling of last year's SP+ (and its sister, the Football Power Index) largely because its regular-season losses were to Ohio State and Michigan. The Peach Bowl loss to Ole Miss didn't seem to impact Penn State's efficiency rankings much, as the Nittany Lions still finished the 2023 season ahead of Alabama and Texas in the FPI. So the data suggests Penn State began the offseason with a frame with which to work. To begin. coach James Franklin identified the priorities of this offseason. 

"Depth chart, offensive and defensive staffs getting on the same page, then obviously offense, defense and special teams players starting to understand and learn the installs," Franklin said.

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.