Pitt vs Florida State: Arrived at Home Stretch

Every game is a big game at this point in the season for the Pitt Panthers.

PITTSBURGH -- This is it for the Pitt Panthers. Win and keep your season and the pursuit of another NCAA Tournament bid alive. Lose, and it is almost surely over. 

There is little margin for error as Pitt hits the home stretch of the regular season but the good news is that their final two games come inside the friendly confines of the Petersen Events Center. 

Game Info
Opponent: Florida State (15-14 overall, 9-9 ACC)
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Location: Petersen Events Center; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Broadcast: ESPN2 and 93.7 The Fan

Odds
Pitt is a 8-point favorite over the Seminoles, according to Action Network, with moneyline odds of -350 to +275 for Florida State. The point total line has been set at 148.

Deja Vu?
Pitt's last meeting with the Seminoles at the Petersen Events Center came under similar circumstances, with Florida State not looking like the program that had contended for ACC titles over the better half of a decade and Pitt chasing an NCAA Tournament berth. The Panthers dropped that game and they weren't taken seriously in postseason projections again until the completion of their ensuing six-game winning streak. 

There will be no similar runway for Pitt to fall back on if they lose this game, this year. In the penultimate game of the regular season, the Panthers can't afford another slip up. This is, as it stands, a Quad 3 game and a loss here could be fatal to Pitt's odds of earning an at-large bid. 

Familiar Florida State
The Seminoles do not boast an impressive record but they have the same bones as some of the great teams Leonard Hamilton has led to multiple Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen appearances. 

They rank first in KenPom's "average height" metric and put that length to good use. They score north of 56% of their points in the paint and block 7% of their opponents shots, both which rank among the top 40 of all Division I teams. The Seminoles grab a ton of steals and defend without fouling. 

But this Pitt team is uniquely suited to meet this challenged, especially compared to last year. The Panthers rank 9th in average height, rebound as well as anyone in America and take care of the basketball. It's all contingent on knocking down some jump shots but Pitt plays in the style necessary to overcome a group as long and deep as Florida State. 

Big-Time Bub
As the pressure and stakes have been raised, one of Pitt's star freshmen guards has met the moment. Bub Carrington has fully put a midseason shooting slump behind him and is playing some of his best ball as the Panthers hit the home stretch. 

Carrington is averaging 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, four assists and 1.5 steals to just one turnover per game while making 50% of his field goals and 62.5% of his 3-pointers over that span. After committing three or more turnovers in three of four games, he's committed two or fewer in each of the past three games. 

Carrington faces a talented backcourt that, unlike most around the country, can match his 6'5 frame with their own length, but Carrington's play lately has featured sharp decision making and excellent play-making for his teammates. Instead of trying to will the ball into the basket, Carrington's finding the easiest ways to get he and his teammates buckets while defending at a high level too. 

Carrington's experienced highs and lows this season but, like his team, has hit his stride at exactly the right time. 

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