ESPN SP+ Projections Favor Pitt In Coastal Race

Bill Connelly's football rating metrics peg the Panthers as a narrow favorite in their division.

PITTSBURGH -- Despite all the reigning ACC Coastal division champions have lost - mainly a record-setting quarterback, Biletnikoff Award-winning wide receiver, experienced offensive coordinator and No. 1 corner - ESPN's SP+ metrics, a rating system created by staff writer Bill Connelly, still favors a repeat appearance in the ACC Championship game for Pitt. 

But a third Coastal Division trophy in head coach Pat Narduzzi's trophy case is far from a forgone conclusion. The SP+ simulations yielded an average of 5.6 conference wins in 2023 for Pitt, just 0.2 more than the second-place Miami Hurricanes. The projections has both teams at an average of 8.7 total wins. 

"There's a lot to like about Pitt heading into 2022," Connelly wrote "There's tons of senior leadership on both lines, plus star power from defensive end Habakkuk Baldonado, defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and left tackle Carter Warren. There's a strong spine of middle linebacker SirVocea Dennis and safeties Erick Hallett and Brandon Hill."

Connelly and his metrics predict a 19th overall finish for the Panthers in the national SP+ rankings, third in the conference behind Clemson and NC State. The Pitt defense is projected to finish 30th nationally and the offense 20th.  

Connelly heaped praise on Pitt's defense, which he sees as more of a sure thing than the offense. He wrote that Baldonado, Kancey and Dennis are among his favorite players in the Coastal and they make up a unit that has finished within the SP+ top-30 defenses each of the past three seasons. 

Where Connelly says the Panthers could slip is on offense, where there is less proven production available. 99% of the offensive line snaps and 96% of the carries are back, meaning that either Kedon Slovis or Nick Patti, whoever wins the starting quarterback competition, will be able to lean on a strong running game that players and coaches said will be featured more in this fall's attack. 

But there are obvious concerns about how Pitt will fare throwing the ball in post-Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison days. The Panthers will have to break in a new quarterback and offensive coordinator while finding a new top pass-catcher.

"The culture and defensive depth remain, but Pickett and Addison are obviously massive losses," Connelly said. "Narduzzi brought in USC transfer Kedon Slovis to battle Nick Patti for the starting quarterback job; Slovis was one of the nation's better quarterbacks as a freshman in 2019 but slipped to 74th in Total QBR last year. A receiving corps by committee will try to help new coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. account for the 100 catches, 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns that Addison takes to USC."

Transfers Bub Means and Konata Mumpfield, who have turned heads at spring practices since joining the Panthers, plus the return of last season's secondary receiver Jared Wayne provide some reasons for optimism, but without a player as dominant as Addison in the mix, it will take contributions from up and down the lineup to account for his departure. 

Connelly thinks that Slovis will win the starting job and be aided by a more concerted effort to run the ball effectively. But there are more questions than answers on offense right now, which leaves the door open for a Miami or UNC to dethrone the Panthers. No one expects them to recreate the production of a record-setting offense spearheaded by the Pickett-Addison combination, but how successful this season is will depend on how close they can come. 

"Slovis will have a strong run game to lean on when asked. But the passing game is what made Pitt a different team last year. We'll see if there's a little drop-off or a lot."

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