What's Pitt's Most Likely Scenario After Bye Week?

The Pitt Panthers have dug themselves a hole that looks nearly impossible to dig out of before the season ends.

PITTSBURGH -- The Pitt Panthers will enjoy an off weekend during a loaded Week 6 and get some much-needed rest before beginning the stretch run of ACC play.

With seven more games ahead of the Panthers, we'll dive into the best, worst and most likely case scenarios for the remainder of the season, continuing with the most likely outlook. 

Most-Likely Scenario

Pitt has dug itself a massive hole by arriving at the bye week of co-owners of head coach Pat Narduzzi's longest losing streak. They in no way resemble the reliable teams of previous years in his tenure that stopped the run no matter what (160 rushing yards against per game, 80th in FBS), affected quarterbacks with a hellacious pass rush (163.4 opponent passer rating, 118th in FBS) and rode a positive turnover margin to victories (-1.3 turnover margin, tied for 124th in FBS). Oh, and they've scored the 98th-fewest points of anyone in the sport. 

The Panthers are sliding and sliding fast. Over the course of this four-game skid, they've made some significant changes - benching starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, inserting Florida transfer Donovan McMillon at safety, expanding the linebacker rotation to include talented true freshmen Kyle Louis and Braylan Lovelace and integrating lightning-fast freshman wideout Kenny Johnson to the starting lineup. But how much those changes will affect the bottom line is unclear at best. 

Pitt is favored by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to win just two more games and that seems like the sweet spot for this team right now. Boston College represents a likely win and Wake Forest is a toss-up, but one the Panthers could certainly win. And maybe a season this poor is exactly what Pitt needs to spring one of the ground-breaking, landmark upsets over a top-10 team that are littered around this program's recent history. 

Still, the ceiling for the 2023 Pitt Panthers remains low. This season won't end with many more wins and Panther fans will have to get comfortable drifting back into the uncertainty of a rebuild. Through a combination of necessity and choice, Pitt is beginning to unleash a youth movement that will feature some encouraging steps forward but plenty of maddening mistakes as well. 

Yes, I think things will get as bad as many expect on the field. The combination of widespread youth and the 31st-hardest remaining schedule in the country, per FPI, will be to much to overcome in the short term and the 2023 season will end in disappointment, giving way to an offseason of extreme angst amid small but important reasons for optimism as the "kids" get their sea legs. 

No, Pat Narduzzi will not get fired and, yes, in all likelihood, the core of his coaching staff will remain the same as well. An offensive coordinator change wouldn't be surprising and might be necessary, but for the most part, I think Pitt has the bones of a solid program in place. 

A wholesale teardown won't be necessary to get the Panthers back on track, just some time to allow the young talent to develop like it did early in the Narduzzi era before the successes of 2021 and 2022 manifested on the turf. 

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