Purdue Opens As Heavy Favorite Against Saint Peter's in Regional Semifinals, But There's a Catch

The biggest favorite in the regional semifinals is No. 3 seed Purdue, who's taking on the Cinderella in the Big Dance, the Saint Peter's Peacocks. Here's the opening point spread, and some amazing data on Saint Peter's and their best-in-the-nation performance vs. the number this season. They are on a real heater.

PHILADELPHIA, Pa. — There are eight total games in the NCAA tournament regional semifinals on Thursday and Friday, and it's Purdue that's the biggest favorite. According to the gambling website Fanduel.com, the Boilermakers are 12.5-point favorites over Saint Peter's, this year's current Cinderella.

The Peacocks are just the third No. 15 seed ever to make it to the second weekend of the tournament, and just the 10th to win a game, period. No No. 15 seed has ever won a game in the second weekend. (For my story on the history of 15 seeds, CLICK HERE)

But here's a number that might make you think twice about laying down some money on the Boilermakers. Of the 68 teams that made the NCAA Tournament, Saint Peter's has the BEST records against the point spread, covering in 22 of 31 games, including the last nine in a row. 

Yeah, really.

Purdue is 29-7 overall, and has been favored in 35 of its 36 games this season. The Boilermakers actually won the one game where they were the underdogs, back on Jan. 17 at Illinois. But they have lost seven times as a favorite in Big Ten games, both during the league and in the conference tournament, the most in the league, most recently in the Big Ten championship game against Iowa. 

The Boilermakers are 16-18-2 against the spread. They were 8-8-1 in games in West Lafayette. In true road games, they were 3-6-1 against the spread. In neutral court games, they are 5-4 against the spread.

The Boilermakers won and covered both of their NCAA Tournament games last week after failing to cover in all three of their Big Ten games a week earlier.

Here's what the Boilermakers have done so far this season:

• Nov. 9 — Beat Bellarmine 96-67 as a 24.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 12 — Beat Indiana State 92-67 as a 22.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 16 — Beat Wright State 96-52 as a 16-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 20 — Beat No. 18 North Carolina 93-84 in Uncasville, Conn. as a 7.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 21 — Beat No. 5 Villanova 80-74 in Uncasville, Conn. as a 3-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 26 — Beat Omaha 97-40 as a 36.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 30— Beat Florida State 93-65 as a 11.5-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 3 — Beat Iowa 77-70 as a 15.5-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 9 — Lost at Rutgers 70-68 as a 13.5-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 12 — Beat N.C. State 82-72 in OT in Brooklyn as a 14.5-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 18 — Beat Butler 77-48 in Indianapolis as a 15.5-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 20 — Beat Incarnate Word 79-59 as a 39-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 29 — Beat Nicholls 104-90 as a 28.5-point favorite (lost)
• Jan. 3— Lost to No. 22 Wisconsin 74-69 as a 12.5-point favorite (lost)
• Jan. 8— Won at Penn State 74-67 as a 9.5-point favorite (lost)
• Jan. 14— Beat Nebraska 92-65 as a 20.5-point favorite (won)
• Jan. 17— Won at No. 17 Illinois 96-88 in 2-OT as a 1.5-point underdog (won)
• Jan. 20 — Lost at Indiana 68-65 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
• Jan. 23 — Beat Northwestern 80-60 as a 12-point favorite (won)
• Jan. 27 — Won at Iowa 83-73 as a 2.5-point favorite (won)
• Jan. 30 — Beat No. 16 Ohio State 81-78 as a 9-point favorite (lost)
• Feb. 3 — Won at Minnesota 88-73 as an 11-point favorite (won)
• Feb. 5 — Beat Michigan 83-76 as a 9.5-point favorite (lost)
• Feb. 8 — Beat No. 13 Illinois 84-68 as a 6-point favorite (won)
• Feb. 10 — Lost at Michigan 82-58 as a 4-point favorite (lost)
• Feb. 13 — Beat Maryland 62-61 as a 16.5-point favorite (lost)
• Feb. 16 — Won at Northwestern 70-64 as a 6-point favorite (push)
• Feb. 20 — Beat Rutgers 84-72 as a 12-point favorite (push)
• Feb. 26 — Lost at Michigan State 68-65 as a 4.5-point favorite (lost)
• March 1 — Lost at No. 10 Wisconsin 70-67 as a 2.5-point favorite (lost)
• March 5 — Beat Indiana 69-67 as a 10-point favorite (lost)
• March 11 — Beat Penn State 69-61 in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Tournament as as 10-5-point favorite (lost)
• March 12 — Beat Michigan State 75-70 in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Tournament as as 6.5-point favorite (lost)
• March 13 — Lost to No. 24 Iowa 75-66 in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Tournament as as 2.5-point favorite (lost)
• March 18 — Beat Yale 78-56 in Milwaukee in the NCAA Tournament as as 17-point favorite (won)
• March 20 — Beat Texas 81-71 in Milwaukee in the NCAA Tournament as as x-point favorite (won)

Saint Peter's is 21-11 overall and finished 14-6 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference regular season. 

They are 22-9 against the spread this season, which is the best record against the number of anyone in the 68-team field. (Alabama is the worst at 11-20-1.)

Here is their complete schedule, and what they've done vs. the point spread:

• Nov. 9 — Lost at VCU 57-54 as a 9-point underdog (won)
• Nov. 13 — Lost at St. John's 91-70 as a 13.5-point underdog (lost)
• Nov. 17 — At Wagner ... cancelled, COVID
• Nov. 23 — Beat Long Island 64-62 as a 9-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 27 — Lost at Providence 85-71 as a 12.5-point underdog (lost)
• Dec. 3— Won at Quinnipiac 69-59 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 5— Lost to Siena 60-58 as an 8.5-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 8 — Lost to St. Francis-Brooklyn 71-60 as a 13-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 12 — Beat Nyack 87-48 ... no line
• Dec. 18 — Lost at Stony Brook 64-63 as a 4-point underdog (won)
• Dec. 22 — At Fairleigh Dickinson ... cancelled, COVID
• Dec. 28 — Versus Connecticut College  ... cancelled, COVID
• Dec. 31 — Versus Canisius ... postponed, COVID
• Jan. 7— Versus Iona ... postponed, COVID
• Jan. 9— At Manhattan ... postponed, COVID
• Jan. 14— Beat Monmouth 67-62 as a 5.5-point underdog (won)
• Jan. 16— Won at Rider 58-51 as a 3.5-point favorite (won)
• Jan. 18 — Beat Canisius 65-57 as a 7.5-point favorite (lost)
• Jan. 21 — Won at Niagara 74-68 in OT as a 1.5-point underdog (won)
• Jan. 23 — Lost at Canisius 63-60 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
• Jan. 26 — Won at Marist 69-62 as a 2-point underdog (won)
• Jan. 28 — Beat Manhattan  77-51 as a 6.5-point favorite (won)
• Jan. 30 — Lost at Iona 85-77 as a 10.5-point underdog (won)
• Feb. 4 — Beat Quinnipiac 83-74 as an 6.5-point favorite (won)
• Feb. 6 — Beat Marist 66-50 as a 5.5-point favorite (won)
• Feb. 11 — Lost to Rider 58-49 as a 6.5-point favorite (lost)
• Feb. 15 — Lost to Iona 70-61 as a 4.5-point underdog (lost)
• Feb. 18 — Won at Fairfield 70-59 as a 1.5-point underdog (won)
• Feb. 20 — Lost at Siena 84-70 as a 2-point favorite (lost)
• Feb. 25 — Won at Monmouth 70-65 as a 4.5-point underdog (won)
• Feb. 27 — Beat Niagara 63-36 as a 5.5-point favorite (won)
• March 1 — Won at Manhattan 73-51 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
• March 5 — Beat Fairfield 57-41 as a 7.5-point favorite (won)
• March 9 — Beat Fairfield 77-63 in Atlantic City in the MAAC tournament as as 5-5-point favorite (won)
• March 11 — Beat Quinnipiac 64-52 in Atlantic City in the MAAC tournament as as 7.5-point favorite (won)
• March 12 — Beat Monmouth 60-54 in Atlantic City in the MAAC tournament  as as 2.5-point favorite (won)
• March 17 — Beat Kentucky 85-79 in OT in Indianapolis in the NCAA Tournament as as 18.5-point underdog (won)
• March 19 — Beat Murray State 70-60 in Indianapolis in the NCAA Tournament as as 8-point underdog (won)

Related stories on Purdue basketball

• HISTORY OF NO. 15 SEEDS: For only the third time in NCAA Tournament history, a No. 15 seed has advanced to the regional semifinals. Saint Peter's, a tiny Jesuit school in Jersey City, N.J., knocked off blueblood Kentucky and 31-win Murray State last week, and now have a date with Purdue on Friday in Philadelphia. Cinderella stories are cute, but they don't usually last long. A No. 15 seed has never won a game in the second week of the tourney. CLICK HERE
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• 4 THINGS ON SAINT PETER'S: Here are four newsy nuggets about Saint Peter's, Purdue's opponent on Friday night in NCAA Tournament East Regional semifinals in Philadelphia. CLICK HERE
• MORTON STEPS UP: Purdue sophomore guard Ethan Morton scored a season-high eight points for Purdue in an 81-71 victory over Texas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. He finished the game with a plus/minus rating of 18, the most on the team, having his best game at the most important time. CLICK HERE
• PURDUE TRIUMPHS OVER TEXAS: Purdue made 33 of its 46 free throws during its NCAA Tournament win against Texas to advance to the Sweet 16. Trevion Williams recorded a team-high 22 points while Jaden Ivey scored 15 in the second half. CLICK HERE
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• WHAT THE PLAYERS SAID AFTER WIN OVER TEXAS: Purdue basketball defeated Texas 81-71 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Here's everything players Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams and Ethan Morton had to say during the postgame press conference following the victory. CLICK HERE