Ranking the eight Pac-12 expansion candidates based off their odds to join the conference

The anticipation as to who will be joining the Pac-12 continues to build

There are two major questions surrounding the Pac-12 at the moment, when they will secure their media rights deal and whether or not they will be expanding.

The media rights deal is something that John Canzano recently discussed with me over on Locked on Buffs, and not only did he sound confident that they will get one soon but he said there is a belief it will equate to more than the Big 12's. While Big 12 country have predicated themselves on praying on the downfall of the conference for pretty much this entire year, there is now some growing confidence coming from the West. 

We are all familiar that the Pac-12 needs to finish their deal before they move onto the subject of expansion, but expansion has been quite the topic as of late. Who's in or out, and who is a legitimate candidate have all been commonly discussed. I myself recently broke down the candidates that I felt make the most sense what their chances were of getting in, but Vegas oddsmaker Adam Thompson of bookies.com took it a step further. Thompson compiled hypothetical odds for the candidates, which provides fans a good perspective as to how likely it is their favorite program could be making the jump. 

While the top two shouldn't surprise you, there are programs higher than I personally expected and one program in Colorado State has appeared to have fallen despite being a confirmed candidate. 

Here are Thompson's hypothetical odds for Pac-12 expansion candidates!

The Field

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Odds: +1100/8.3% 

Outside of the eight other candidates, there haven't really been any serious connections with other programs hopeful to get in. For example, programs like Rice and USF both qualify academically and are in good markets, but they each have their flaws. Rice hasn't been competitive by any means in football, and the Pac-12 is hesitant to add SMU there's really not an argument for Rice. USF is just way too far away. They've never really been linked but they were a team that was once floated out there. 

Boise State

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sport

Odds: +1400/6.7%

After once being viewed as next in line to get for conference realignment moves, Boise State is no longer viewed in the light they once were. Their No. 98 market in the country won't get the job done.

Fresno State

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Odds: +1400/6.7%

Despite residing in the heart of Pac-12 country and being quite competitive, Fresno State has not really ever been in consideration. They don't offer a new market for the conference that is worth adding. 

Hawaii

Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

Odds: +950/9.5%

Hawaii is higher than I thought they would be, but at the end of the day it gets the Pac-12 in another time zone and a whole state supporting one program. Moving up to the Pac-12 would also likely help Hawaii recruiting wise.

Tulane

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Odds: +800/11.1%

One of my top candidates for the Pac-12 due to their recent success in football, Tulane fits academically and would be a great pairing with SMU. They are in a fertile recruiting ground, and could help Pac-12 programs get more access to the South. 

Colorado State

Michael Madrid / USA TODAY NETWORK

Odds: +750/11.8%

The Rams make sense geographically, provide a rival for Colorado, or if the Pac-12 were to lose Colorado they wouldn't lose the market. A while back they were confirmed as the third candidate that the Pac-12 was considering.

UNLV

Odds: +700/12.5%

Despite Las Vegas being the hub of the Pac-12's championship games, the school itself has not been as much of a commodity as you would think. They do reside in the No. 40 market in the country, but their football program has been down for a while.

SMU

Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Odds: +400/20% 

They have long been viewed as the second best candidate, and there is a belief that with their big donor base and the fact that they reside in Dallas that SMU should get in. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff even took a trip to SMU during basketball season. 

 

San Diego State

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Odds:+200/33.3%

By far the best odds and the only program that is viewed as a lock to join the conference if they hammer down their media rights deal. There is however a very big deadline looming with San Diego State, which is the fact that they have until June 30 to give notice it is leaving the Mountain West. If they don't, their exit fee doubles from $17 million to $34 million.