Three long shot Pac-12 expansion candidates for the fourth spot
The Pac-12 expansion rumors have evolved from rumors, to now we for sure know three candidates that the conference is considering.
The only problem with knowing three, is the fact that there is a mystery fourth candidate out there that has yet to be revealed. I wrote about who it could be on Saturday, as I think Tulane and Rice would be the only two programs that make sense if you consider academics and the media market. However, the article sparked much debate on social media, and there were a handful of other programs thrown around that may be on the far outside looking in.
What we do know is that San Diego State, SMU, and Colorado State are the confirmed candidates with the first two being viewed as near locks, while programs like Boise State, Fresno State, and UNLV are out. Not including Tulane and Rice, there are three programs across the entire country that could only be considered as long shots candidates for that fourth opening.
The more I look into candidates, the more evident it becomes that adding two programs will likely be the direction the Pac-12 goes. However, we may as well make sure that we cross every "t" and dot every "I" before we finally get confirmation. Here are three programs that could be potential long shots, meaning not very likely but would be an interesting discussion, candidates for that final spot of Pac-12 expansion assuming the conference added four programs.
Hawaii
There are some pros and cons to adding Hawaii. For starters, the program is in one of the most beautiful states in the country and they are set to receive a major stadium upgrade that is expected to cost around $500 million. The program has had some success within the past couple decades in football, but have been relatively inconsistent. Academically, they're No. 166 ranking according to Us News likely isn't the draw the Pac-12 would like, but it is higher than Fresno State, Boise State, and UNLV. When it comes to their market, it also isn't as enticing as one would think. They rank No. 65 in market size with only 445,000 households. It is hard to imagine that if the Pac-12 doesn't want Las Vegas, that they would want Honolulu.
UTSA
The Road Runners have an ascending football program in a very promising market in San Antonio Texas that ranks as the No. 31 market. Jeff Traylor has led the program to two 11 win seasons over the past couple years, and they would also be a great pairing with SMU competition wise, compared to Rice. Their issue lies with their academic ranking, as they come in the 331-430 range according to US News, which for reference is in the Boise State range.
USF
USF is academically up to par with the Pac-12 besides the fact that it isn't an AAU university. They rank as high as Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, and Arizona academically, and football wise have had some promising years in the past. They have had nine winning seasons since 2006 football wise, and could be turned around at any time following a tumultuous Jeff Scott tenure. Their issue is the fact they are on the opposite side of the map, and even with adding SMU, they would be 1,100 miles away from their closest opponent. However, Tampa does have the No. 11 market in the country and would officially put the Pac-12 in four different time zones.