Big 12 College Football Preview 2022: Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas

Can Baylor stave off contenders like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas to repeat as Big 12 champions in 2022?

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In Year 2 with Baylor, Dave Aranda took the Bears from two wins to Big 12 Champions. The story is incredible, but can Baylor sustain despite losing their top defensive weapons? Below, we'll look at the Big 12 conference for the 2022 college football season.

How will new-look Oklahoma fare against teams with added firepower like Texas? Can Oklahoma State repeat their 12-win success story from 2021?

Familiar Faces In New Spaces

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In about six months, the Oklahoma Sooners broke the fabric of college football. First, it was their announcement to depart the Big 12 in favor of the SEC that kicked off an entire realignment across college football in June 2021. Then, Lincoln Riley jumpstarted the wildest coaching carousel when he left for USC in December.

Now what?

Brent Venables, Clemson defensive coordinator and former Oklahoma DC, was hired to replace the first coach to willingly leave Norman for another job since 1973. He was a standout at Clemson and was previously the highest-paid coordinator in college football.

Venables crafted his staff from Ole Miss offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby and Clemson assistant Ted Roof.

The Sooners lost not one, but two starting quarterbacks through the transfer portal as well as their top two receivers. However, they replace production with production in UCF star Dillon Gabriel, who is returning from a broken collarbone. In two seasons and some change, Gabriel threw for over 8,000 yards and 70 touchdowns.

The significance of Lebby added to the OU staff is that he led Gabriel to career-high numbers in Orlando as a member of UCF's coaching staff. His hiring at OU is what shifted Gabriel off UCLA and to Oklahoma over other teams like Ole Miss.

Defensively, Oklahoma should be an improved unit. Venables brings a tried and true defensive scheme to the Plains that works well with their personnel. The Sooners have multiple studs on the defensive line that already began implementing more complex stunts last season. Their linebacking corps is athletic. The transition defensively should be smooth sailing.

The question is– how does Oklahoma handle their biggest transition in 50 years?

With a schedule that includes Baylor and Oklahoma State at home and a favorable out-of-conference slate, the Sooners should be just fine.

Who Aren't We Watching Close Enough?

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As per tradition, Texas and Oklahoma dominate headlines. Baylor gets the nod from being the defending conference champions and Oklahoma State is always in the mix.

The team that's getting the most overlooked– even perhaps here– is Kansas State. The Wildcats return one of college football's most dynamic playmakers, running back Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn was named a first team All-American before surprisingly returning to Manhattan for his senior season.

K-State also landed maligned Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez in the portal– a move he sorely needed. Martinez was one of the most scrutinized players on one of the most scrutinized teams with one of the most scrutinized coaching staffs in the country. His move to quieter Manhattan is much needed.

Chris Kleimann stepped in for one of the most reputable head coaches of all time in 2020 (Bill Snyder) and has led the Wildcats to back-to-back eight-win seasons. A pair of offensive playmakers coupled with a tough, veteran defense makes K-State an interesting team.

ESPN's Bill Connelly has talked highly about K-State this offseason, even suggesting their potential to be a top-15 caliber team in 2022. His ratings system, the SP+, has them 37th nationally and fourth in the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State).

They handle a Missouri team in disrepair early on but otherwise field a favorable schedule. However, their win total remains at only seven on the year.

Stop Us If You've Heard This Before, But...

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I used this headline in last week's 2022 ACC football preview in reference to Miami. I'm using it again this week for Texas.

The "Texas is back" slogan is a punchline of college football and, in recent years, deservedly so. While you won't hear "Texas is back" from us, this team is once again intriguing on paper.

Back is one of the nation's top RBs in Bijan Robinson and so is All-American candidate Xavier Worthy. As a true freshman, Worthy found the end zone 12 times and nearly breached 1,000 yards; Robinson scored 15 total TDs and proved to be a dual-threat home run option all season long.

In comes a trio of notable transfers: former No. 1 recruit Quinn Ewers, Wyoming deep threat Isaiah Neyor, and athletic pass-catching tight end Jahleel Billingsly. On paper (and we cannot stress that part enough), this is one of the most talented skill groups in the country.

Texas signed the nation's top OL class, per 247Sports, but with holes to fill, the Longhorns very well may have to start true freshmen on the OL. With a Week 2 date against Alabama on tap, that might spell trouble.

On paper (and, AGAIN, we cannot stress that part enough!), Texas is a very interesting team with a very high ceiling in 2022.

A Flash In The Pan Or Here To Stay?

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Only two teams in the Power 5 return less production than the defending champion Baylor Bears this season. It just so happens, both of those teams also play in the Big 12. Aranda etched his name in college football history with the turnaround he managed in Waco.

Baylor fans have a reason to be excited about this team again in 2022. Rising starter Blake Shapen forced Gerry Bohanan into the transfer portal after Big 12 Championship Game heroics. Along with a stud OL that dominates All-Conference selections, the offense should be just fine despite needing to fill nearly every skill position this year.

It'd be unfair and unrealistic to expect a repeat of the 2021 Baylor defense. However, the Bears return all three defensive linemen from a year ago. Having two strong fronts, a good coaching staff, and an exciting QB goes a long way in college football.

There's no doubt this team will contend for the conference again.

Sizing Up The Rest Of The Big 12

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In the past 14 seasons, Oklahoma State has 3.5 times more 10-win seasons (7) than they do seasons with fewer than eight wins (2). No matter what the team loses, the Pokes are in the mix. Spencer Sanders was named the first team preseason All-Big 12 QB by the Big 12 in July. DC Jim Knowels and multiple All-Conference starters left the team after a 12-win 2021. Mike Gundy replaces one of the nation's top coordinators in Knowels with a formidable hire, former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason.

West Virginia and Iowa State are the aforementioned teams that rank 127th and 128th respectively in returning production in the FBS. The Mountaineers are in a better position than the Cyclones this coming season thanks to stout units on both the offensive and defensive line. USC and Georgia transfer J.T. Daniels leads WVU this season with some athletic weapons out wide and a stable of running backs.

Defensively, there's more to trust with WVU than Iowa State. However, the Cyclones do have a pair of All-American candidates in Will McDonald IV and Xavier Hutchinson.

Texas Tech and TCU both replace head coaches and virtually their entire staffs. Jerry McGuire– a longtime Texas recruiter and high school coach– landed in Lubbock and brought on a promising staff. OC Zach Kittley led WKU to school-record numbers in passing and scoring a season ago after doing the same at Houston Baptist. Former SMU head coach Sonny Dykes heads 45 minutes west to Fort Worth to spearhead the Horned Frogs.

That leaves Kansas, who returns their most exciting QB in years in Jalon Daniels. However, the Jayhawks remain unserious about crafting a winning football program, even under lauded head coach Lance Leipold. 

2022 Big 12 Standings Projection

Note: We released a Way Too Early Projections piece back in February. Offseason developments may have changed the outlook on the conference.

1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Baylor Bears
3. Texas Longhorns
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
5. Kansas State Wildcats
6. West Virginia Mountaineers
7. Iowa State Cyclones
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. TCU Horned Frogs
10. Kansas Jayhawks

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma OVER Baylor

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