TCU Horned Frogs Football Season Preview 2023

Although TCU's 2022 season was a dream, they fell short of the Big 12 title. What do the Horned Frogs look like for the 2023 college football season?

The worst news about TCU football in 2023 is that it's pretty hard to go up from the 2022 season. In fact, it's pretty hard to even repeat the same success found last year. Everything clicked just at the right time in Year 1 under Sonny Dykes, and it propelled TCU to heights not matched by 129 other college football teams. But the job is unfinished for TCU, who – despite their 12-0 run and College Football Playoff appearance (and win) – did not bring home a Big 12 football title.

That's bullet point number one on the To-Do list for the 2023 season. And with an almost completely turned-over roster that included eight Horned Frogs drafted into the NFL, Dykes has his work cut out for him.

Let's dive into the 2023 edition of the TCU Horned Frogs.

If you're looking for my game-by-game prediction for TCU, you can find that here.

TCU Horned Frogs Rundown

• 2022 Record: 13-2 (9-0 Big 12)
• Head coach: Sonny Dykes (2nd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Kendall Briles (1st season)
• Defensive coordinator: Joe Gillespie (2nd season)
• Returning starters: 10 (3 offense, 7 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 3rd in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 3rd in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

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The stars aligned for the TCU Horned Frogs in 2022. They ran the table in the regular season, winning all six one-score games, and found themselves a shoo-in for their first-ever College Football Playoff. Max Duggan punched himself a ticket to New York as a Heisman Finalist, ultimately finishing second in the voting.

The offense was a machine in Dykes' first year. Receiver Quinten Johnston played himself into being a first-round NFL Draft pick, and running back Kendre Miller rushed for 1,400 yards and 17 touchdowns, second-most in the Big 12.

But TCU came up short of a Big 12 title, losing a 31-28 thriller to Kansas State. Despite that loss, the cards still fell right, and TCU earned their spot in the CFP.

The dream didn't end there – the Frogs out-dueled Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, winning 51-45 and punching their ticket to the National Championship Game against Georgia. Although the wheels fell off and luck caught up to TCU in Los Angeles, the season was an unmitigated success, etched forever in the college football history books.

TCU Football Preview: Offense

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Gone are Duggan, Miller, Johnston, and two offensive linemen. None of TCU's top four receivers return, and neither do any of the top three rushers. Just 41% of roster production on offense returns for 2023, the 11th-fewest nationally, and they also lost offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to Clemson.

Chandler Morris rises as the likely starter at quarterback. In limited starts, Morris has shown the ability to make plays, but also has overall underwhelmed, save for his big game against Baylor in 2021. Without the veteran experience of a skill corps around him, Morris faces an uphill battle to meet lofty expectations this coming year.

Behind him is three-star QB Josh Hoover, but offseason portal add Chance Nolan left the program in early August. The safety net behind Morris just got a lot less secure, and Morris faced injury early in the season.

To remedy losing almost everyone in the two-deep roster at the skill positions, TCU hit the transfer portal. Dykes brought in Alabama transfers JoJo Earle at receiver and Trey Sanders – a former five-star recruit – at running back, both expected Day 1 impact players. They also bring in Oklahoma State's JP Richardson. Of the returning receivers, Savion Williams leads the way with almost 400 yards and four touchdowns a season ago.

Sanders should be a three-down workhorse. Behind him is Emani Bailey, who only received 31 carries as the third man last season.

Up front, TCU also lured an Alabama transfer from the DFW Metroplex back home: tackle Tommy Brockermeyer. Brockermeyer stands behind 6-foot-7 junior Andrew Coker at right tackle, per OurLads' TCU depth chart. After losing so much to the NFL – Steve Avila and Ali Alan included – the offensive line is a unit that needs time to gel and must out-perform expectations.

Perhaps most impactful, though, is the hiring of Arkansas OC Kendall Briles. His system will be a marriage with Dykes' offensive system, so there's no reason to believe TCU's offense falls off a cliff. But expect a more potent rushing attack, something Briles excelled in with the Razorbacks.

TCU Football Preview: Defense

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Much more experience and production return defensively for TCU. Despite losing Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, Dylan Horton, and Dee Winters departing for the NFL, the Horned Frogs rise a lot of talent that garnered preseason all-conference considerations.

Up front, Damonic Williams is the lone returning starter, but he was named to the preseason All-Big 12 team. Contrary to some years past, the Horned Frogs' defensive line packs a punch with size – all three projected starters are at least 6-foot-2 and 310 pounds. Tymon Mitchell, a 2022 Georgia transfer, projects to start at defensive end alongside true freshman Markis Deal. They have a lot of young talent, although unproven.

Team captain Johnny Hodges returns to headline the linebacking corps, as does Jamoi Hodge. Those two, paired with safety Mark Perry, combined for 253 tackles a season ago, and all three return.

The defensive secondary returns the most experience and the most talent on the team. It projects to be one of the best secondaries in the Big 12, and Phil Steele ranks the unit 13th best nationally.

Josh Newton was the Robin to Hodges-Tomlinson's Batman last year, but he actually posted numbers that rival Tre. Newton allowed a paltry 43.4 QBR when targeted and allowed a reception once every 20.3 coverage snaps, per Pro Football Focus (best on the team and eighth-best nationally). Perry and Bud Clark make up a dynamic safety duo, while Millard Bradford returns as the fifth defensive back. The only newcomer is Avery Helm, a highly-touted corner transfer from Florida.

While it'll take a miraculous showing to improve on offense for TCU, the defense has the makings of a great unit. For 2023, expect more defense, perhaps in line with what we saw at the end of the regular season last year.

TCU Special Teams

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While not as directly involved as offense or defense, TCU has one of the better special teams units in the Big 12 this season. Griffin Kell earned all-conference honors last year after making 17-of-19 field goals and 62-of-64 extra points a season ago. Senior Jordy Sandy retains his spot as the punter, with 49 of his 118 punts being downed inside the opposing 20-yard line the past two years.

Earle projects to be the punt returner, in front of 2022 recruit Major Everhart and freshman Jordy Bailey.

How The Schedule Shakes Out

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Of course, a team can have all the talent in the world, but draw a tough schedule and finish with fewer wins. On the flip side, a team could seriously lack talent, but draw a favorable schedule and win more games than team talent would suggest.

This year, TCU drew the short stick.

Just looking at last year's win/loss record is a flawed way to assess this year's schedule strength. The Horned Frogs play the 30th-most difficult schedule in the country. According to Phil Steele, their projected opponent strength this year is 64 spots tougher than what last year's records would indicate.

They face all of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Baylor – the five other highest-ranked Big 12 teams – and finish the season with all of them (with a bye week after K-State). That final six-week stretch is among the toughest in the country and could see a 7-0 TCU team fall from grace quickly.

But leading up to that October 21-on stretch, things set up nicely for the Frogs. Though projected to be improved with a roster overhaul, Colorado isn't a world-beating team, and that game is played at home. There's no game in which I project TCU to have less than a 64% chance to win in Weeks 1-7.

That final stretch is brutal. Because of that, I project 8.3 wins for TCU this season.

The Case For TCU

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Last year's team managed to catch lightning in a bottle, but they return plenty of talent defensively, added nice pieces in the transfer portal, and return a strong cast of coaches. Joseph Gillespie didn't turn in a top-20 unit defensively, but TCU's offensive pace made that difficult in the first place. This year, I do expect the Horned Frogs to improve from their 60th ranking in points per drive allowed.

An improvement defensively only helps this team. Their talented secondary can match up with almost any receiving unit in the conference, although Texas' receiving corps will give them a handful.

Offensively, the pieces are still there, as well. Morris has shown the ability to make big plays, and, if he plays more consistently, then the TCU offense should again be a top-20 unit nationally. The transfer pieces on offense, particularly Sanders, Earle, and Richardson, give TCU enough talent to compete with anyone in the Big 12.

Ultimately, building a case for TCU in 2023 shouldn't be based on 2022's success. After not topping seven wins since 2017, returning to an eight- or nine-win baseline is where I see TCU moving to this season. And that in itself should be seen as a success.

The Case Against TCU

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Last year's team managed to catch lightning in a bottle, and there's nowhere to go but down. "Down" doesn't mean 5-7 or 6-6, but a regression is inbound.

Other recent Big 12 success stories fit this model – Baylor won 11 games and the Big 12 in 2021, but went just 6-6 last season; Oklahoma State won 12 games, then went 7-6 last year; Iowa State fell from 9-3 to 7-6 from 2020-21, as well. It's just the nature of the conference.

The major cog for last year's run was Duggan and his ability to exponentially exceed all expectations. Morris, though he's a junior now, lacks the experience and can't match the leadership exemplified by Duggan last year. He's not up to snuff with Duggan's athleticism, and many of those acts of escape and gutty third-down conversions are going to disappear. That's just the nature of QB turnover.

The offense has a chance to really regress. It's an entirely new skill cast and offensive play caller – one that put up numbers at Arkansas, but runs a system not all that compatible with TCU's current personnel. Will he be able to orchestrate an offense that doesn't center around a 6-foot-3, 240-pound bruiser at QB like he had in K.J. Jefferson?

But even the most pessimistic projections for TCU don't have them under 8-4. The absolute floor is 7-5, should everything go wrong. This year's results are all about how they're framed. 

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