TCU Football Outlook: Predicting The Horned Frogs 2023 Season
No team exceeded their expectations more than the TCU Horned Frogs in 2022. In their first year under Sonny Dykes, the Frogs made an improbable run, finishing the regular season 12-0 and making their first College Football Playoff. While the dream ultimately fell flat in the National Championship, TCU notched an upset of Michigan in the CFP semifinal. Max Duggan was the Heisman Trophy runner-up and a slew of Frogs were drafted into the NFL.
Perhaps no one was more surprised than myself. Go ahead – take a look at my 2022 TCU football prediction and have a good laugh.
But I'm getting right back on the horse. Let's take a deep dive into the 2023 TCU Horned Frogs football season with a a game-by-game prediction.
Predicting TCU's 2023 Football Season Game-by-Game
TCU plays a more difficult schedule this season than the last. According to Phil Steele, the Horned Frogs play an underrated schedule packed with teams projected to improve. Looking at power rankings, TCU plays a schedule 64 spots tougher than what simply looking at last year's win/loss would suggest. Overall, TCU plays the 30th-most difficult schedule nationally and the eighth-most difficult slate in the Big 12.
Week 1: vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado dominated headlines this offseason bringing in Deion Sanders and revamping the roster with 50 transfers. However, don't expect this surge to all of a sudden have Colorado in national contention. The Buffs lack size at the line of scrimmage and depth, well, anywhere. Expect one of the fastest-paced offenses in the country, but their defense is still paper-thin (with some talent in the secondary).
While the Buffs should be improved from last year, this would still be a concerning game for TCU to drop, particularly at home.
Predicted result: WIN (1-0)
Week 2: vs. Nicholls Colonels
If TCU loses a home game to an FCS school, it would be one of the biggest upsets in college football history.
Predicted result: WIN (2-0)
Week 3: at Houston Cougars
TCU's first road game of the year doesn't leave the state as they travel to Big 12 newbie Houston. The general temperature on the Cougars is low (you can find out just how low here) and TCU will be a healthy favorite.
If there is some reason to favor Houston at all, it's that this is their first Big 12 game against an in-state opponent from a major market. The stands should at least be packed, although TCU will have a very strong following.
The bottom line is, Houston just doesn't have the talent to threaten here and a TCU loss would have to be self-inflicted. I give TCU a 74.7% chance to win this game.
Predicted result: WIN (3-0)
Week 4: vs. SMU Mustangs
Losing QB Tanner Mordecai is a big loss for SMU, but they rise blue chip prospect Preston Stone to take his place. Stone is equally talented with better mobility, but at the expense of proven results and experience. The Mustangs have to turn over their biggest offensive weapons, but landed a haul in the transfer portal.
The past three iterations of this rivalry have been tightly-contested and this year should be no different. It also marks the return of Jordan Hudson, who transferred back to SMU this offseason.
The biggest question mark on the field in this game is the SMU defense, a real liability. Especially at home, TCU has a strong chance to win – my numbers give the Frogs an 81.7% win expectancy.
Predicted result: WIN (4-0)
Week 5: vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Coming into this contest, WVU will have played at Penn State, vs. Pitt, and vs. Texas Tech. There's a good chance they enter Fort Worth 1-3 (with a likely win over FCS Duquesne). If I had to call a shot, this is likely Neal Brown's last game for the Mountaineers as patience was already wearing thin last year.
WVU will rely on versatile bruiser CJ Donaldson in the backfield, but otherwise have a ton of unknowns. After taking a beating in 2021, there's no chance TCU overlooks this team in Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Predicted result: WIN (5-0)
Week 6: at Iowa State Cyclones
The barometer was pointing up for Iowa State coming into this year. That is, until starting QB Hunter Dekkers was pinned at the center of a gambling allegation that will almost certainly see him banned from the NCAA should he be found guilty. Beyond that distraction, running back Jirehl Brock hasn't practiced much this offseason.
Given the issues surrounding the team, Iowa State is in for a potential disaster of a season.
Predicted result: WIN (6-0)
Week 7: vs. BYU Cougars
Unfortunately, Horned Frog fans will have to wait for their first chance to travel to Provo. The Cougars have an equally-bearish outlook on their season as most of the other newcomers. BYU turns over a star QB and most of its receiving production. The defense last year was dreadful and – barring new DC Jay Hill completely revamping that unit overnight – may be again this year.
Despite returning virtually nothing on offense, TCU has a big talent advantage. However, don't overlook BYU's offensive front packed with serious size. But this is another game in which it would be disappointing and borderline concerning for TCU to lose at home.
Predicted result: WIN (7-0)
Week 8: at Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State also lost a lot of star power on both sides of the football coming off their Big 12 Championship season. However, starting QB Will Howard returns as well as the top offensive line in the conference. The best individual unit in this game is that K-State OL, which is likely to pave the way for transfer RB Treshaun Ward from Florida State.
In order for TCU to win this ballgame, they'll need to mitigate the run game and force the ball into Howard's hands more often. Easier said than done.
Ultimately, I see this game as a tossup with nearly a 50% chance for either side to win. When it comes to a tossup, I'll take the home team with more continuity by a hair.
Predicted result: LOSS (7-1)
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Fortunately, TCU has a bye week to regroup ahead of this Texas Tech matchup. Unfortunately, it plays out on a Thursday night in Lubbock. From a talent standpoint, TCU should be able to handle Texas Tech, despite the Red Raiders being one of the darling preseason teams in the CFB media community.
But from a situational standpoint, this game could be a nightmare. Tech boasts one of the better home field environments, particularly against big ranked opponents at night. My numbers give TCU a 52.6% chance to win the game, not factoring in the increased home field advantage given the spot.
Frog fans should be wary of this game.
Predicted result: LOSS (7-2)
Week 11: vs. Texas Longhorns
Despite a 64-28-1 all-time edge for the Longhorns, TCU has dominated this matchup lately. The Frogs have won 10 of the last 13 dating back to their entry into the Big 12. Even in TCU's worst recent season (2021), they took Texas to the brink. When it comes to TCU vs. Texas, the Frogs have UT's number and this game plays at home.
It's the last conference matchup between the two teams and perhaps the last matchup overall for quite some time. Expect one of the best home environments ever at Amon G. Carter this week, which expects to be between two ranked opponents.
The juice and series history is enough to book this one for TCU, despite preseason numbers suggesting a 34.8% win rate for TCU.
Predicted result: WIN (8-2)
Week 12: vs. Baylor Bears
For two straight years, this game has been whacky. Of course, in any rivalry game, throw the records out and TCU has come away victorious in three straight seasons (nearly five if not for a triple-OT loss in 2019). Perhaps TCU's luck runs out this year against Baylor, but this game is played at home and that accounts for a good boost.
My preseason numbers give TCU a 64.2% chance to win the game. Of course, by Week 12, that will have likely changed quite a bit. Baylor is due for an improvement from last season, but I still don't trust Blake Shapen or the Baylor defense.
Like with the previous game, TCU plays another tough spot at home and that means something.
Predicted result: WIN (9-2)
Week 13: at Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma's 2022 season was an anomaly. This offseason, Brent Venables trained his focus on bringing in bodies and talent on defense to avoid another embarrassment where OU finished outside the top 90 in defense. In the second season under Venables' system, the Sooners' stop unit will almost certainly improve.
Offensively, Dillon Gabriel returns, although new talent will have to emerge in the receiving corps and backfield. Throughout the roster, Oklahoma has the talent edge.
While OU likely doesn't immediately return to top-10 status, this won't be last year's pushover team. I give the Frogs a 38% chance to win this game.
Predicted result: LOSS (9-3)
To assume that TCU is in for another 12-0 year would be a farce. But a 9-3 record should be celebrated and is almost certainly good enough for a ranked finish and high-level bowl game. The Frogs turn almost everything over on offense and have to find new studs on defense.
However, there's no reason to believe that TCU has to start over.
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