Texas vs. Baylor Keys To Win In Week 4

Texas and Baylor need to follow this one method in order to win at McLane Stadium in Week 4.

One more for the road? That should be Texas' motto when serving as the visiting team for the final time as a member of the Big 12. 

The Longhorns depart for the SEC following the end of the 2023-24 calendar year. Expectations are high in Austin. Higher than usual. Entering Year 3 of the Steve Sarkisian era, Texas has built a cohesive roster that's only flaw could be an internal implosion. 

No one's going to roll out the "sayonara shag" for Texas en route to a December weekend in Arlington. Programs getting that last punch in against the flagship program would be the icing on the cake to a decade of dysfunction and despair on the Forty Acres. 

For anyone that calls the state of Texas home, a win would be personal for the program. When Texas A&M fled for the SEC in 2012, teams like Texas Tech, Baylor and even big brother Texas wanted to ensure the Aggies received a parting gift that would sting well after their presence was a memory.

Baylor is the first of the Lone Star State quartet to take on Texas in 2023. Since 2012, the Longhorns have owned the series, winning six of the previous 10 matchups. Then again, since 2011, the Bears have won double-digit games in odd years. 

Could 2023 be another run to Jerry World for Dave Aranda and Co., or will the Sark and the Horns show Baylor why Bears need to hibernate come December? 

Here's what both teams need to do come Sept. 23 in Waco to guarantee a victory. 

Texas wins if...

The defense pressures QB Blake Shapen 

Shapen won the starting job over Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson this spring, but mixed play could lead to a switch by midseason. For now, the Shreveport native has done enough to retain the title, meaning Texas should have more than enough film to study. 

Consistency was Shapen's biggest asset once replacing Gerry Bohanon before the Big 12 championship. He completed 82.1 percent of his throws for 180 yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma State in Arlington to claim a conference title. Once asked to become the full-time starter, the numbers dipped. 

Last season's matchup at DRK marked Shapen's second-worst outing of the regular season. He completed just 50 percent of his passes (18-for-36) for two scores against an interception. And while he connected with Jaylen Ellis for a 47-yard touchdown, Shapen averaged just 5.0 yards per pass attempt. 

The easy thing to do would be to blame miscommunication between quarterback and receiver. Looking back, offensive line woes hampered Shapen's timing in the pocket. The Longhorns totaled 14 total pressures and three sacks, including forcing an errant throw into coverage that led to an interception by Jaylan Ford. 

Baylor's offensive line, at least on paper, is a weak point. The Bears are replacing four starters, including First-team All-Big 12 tackle Connor Galvin and center Jacob Gall. The Barrington brothers from BYU reunited with Jeff Grimes in Waco, but timing will be everything for the new four faces building a rapport up front with one another. 

Texas finished fifth in the Big 12 with 27 sacks. Replacing Moro Ojomo and Keondre Coburn will present an internal challenge, but Horns are returning talents in Alfred Collins, Byron Murphy and leading sack artist Barryn Sorrell. 

Sacks won't win a football game. Pressuring Shapen to throw early, miss targets and lead to three-and-outs over three points or more, however, will. 

Baylor wins if...

Attacks the defensive line with running backs 

This game likely will be decided in the trenches for both parties. The Bears are replacing four offensive linemen. The Horns are adding two new starters up the middle. 

Texas rotated its defensive line plenty last fall, so names like Murphy, Collins and T'Vondre Sweat should only see their production enhance. The question turns to how the depth behind them pans out. 

Baylor's offense will rely on Shapen's progression passing, but also potent production in the run game. Leading rusher Richard Reese is slated to return for a second season after averaging roughly 5.0 yards per play. On top of that, Baylor added former Oklahoma State standout Dominic Richardson via the transfer portal. 

If Shapen struggles, Aranda will have to trust his polar opposite tailbacks can attract missed tackles and over pursuits in the open field. Last year, Baylor barely rushed for over 100 yards and averaged 2.6 yards per play. Of the five third-down conversations that hit, two came on rush attempts. 

Naturally, the Bears are going to have to feast in coverage against Quinn Ewers' quick-hit arm against a cast of receivers that can change the game in an instant, but the offense has to hold up their end of the bargain. Richardson has exceptional power to fight for the hard yards. Reese was known for his bully ball run style, but has shown more than once he can win with speed. 

Last year, Baylor won the time of possession (33:24-26:36) but failed to capitalize on first downs. Keeping the clocking rolling will help, but making sure drives start fresh every two or three plays needs to be a priority. 

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