Longhorns Week 4 Opponent Preview: Baylor Bears

The Texas Longhorns hit the road for their final first Big 12 game against an in-state foe.

As Texas says goodbye to the Big 12, a new contender must emerge from the future dozen programs. Does the team in Waco have a chance to take the leap?

Few programs made bigger headlines than Baylor in 2021. Dave Aranda was coming off a 2-7 season and a ninth-place finish in the conference in 2020. There were questions at quarterback and receiver, but at least the defense made strides late down the stretch.

It would later be the catalyst to a breakout year in Waco, culminating with a Big 12 conference title and victory over Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. Aranda became an overnight sensation and was viewed as a front-runner for multiple Power Five jobs. He inked a new deal, hoping to turn Baylor into the Big 12's next "it" team.

Instead, the Bears regressed, finishing 6-7 while averaging 32.2 points per game. Things haven't improved entering 2023. Quarterback play has been mixed. So has the defense, which ranks 10th in the conference in total yards (333.3 yards per game) and 12th in scoring (23.3 points per game).

This is Baylor football at its finest: one breakout season, followed by a few years of mediocrity, then a surge at the most unconventional time.

And yes, the ups and downs aren't just underneath Aranda's play-calling. It happened with Matt Rhule during his three-year stay. The same thing occurred with Art Briles before a scandal that shook college football to its core became his identity.

Aranda went from being one of college football's most sought-after names to a potential hot seat candidate. A loss to Texas State and a struggle win over FCS Long Island has done him little favors, and those who write the checks are growing weary of regression taking its toll.

The soft-spoken Aranda said this past week that the team was "one win away" from getting back on track. Is that victory coming this week against the Longhorns?

Follow along with LonghornsCountry.com as we preview every aspect of Texas' matchup with the Bears throughout the week. First, here's a quick overview of the essential things to know before kickoff at McLane Stadium come Sept. 23.

Baylor Bears

2023 Record: 1-2 (0-0 against Big 12 opponents)

Head coach: Dave Aranda

Aranda is 21-18 entering his fourth season with the program

Offensive Leaders

QB Sawyer Robertson

Robertson lost the starting quarterback battle in spring practice to incumbent starter Blake Shapen, but a knee injury has sidelined him for two weeks. Aranda announced Monday that the Mississippi State transfer will start once against Saturday night in what's expected to be a "blackout game."

There's reason for concerns with Robertson commanding the huddle. He tossed two interceptions against then-No. 12 Utah, both of which led to scoring drives in the opposite direction. Against Long Island, he threw for just 113 yards and completed less than 50 percent of his throws.

Aranda called Roberston the "most competitive people I know." Maybe that's true, but his decision-making has little continuity. There's been even less chemistry in building a rapport with his receivers.

RB Dominic Richardson

Richardson joined the squad after spending three seasons at Oklahoma State. He's yet to find the end zone, but he's been a bruiser in the backfield, utilizing his power to keep drives alive. In two games, Richardson is averaging 5.2 yards per run and 78 yards per outing on 13 carries.

RB Richard Reese

Abram Smith was a human bulldozer in 2021. Reese took over that title a year later, averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 187 attempts. While his rep count has taken a step back, he still is averaging roughly 4.5 yards per attempt. Reese scored a pair of touchdowns against the Sharks, both coming from 13 yards out.

WR Ketron Jackson

Jackson was in line to replace Jadon Haselwood as the leading receiver at Arkansas, but internal changes in the program led to his eventual departure. Since arriving in Waco, he's been the go-to target for Shapen in Jeff Grimes' drop-back passing game. Through three games, Jackson leads the team in receptions (10) and receiving yards (168). He's still looking for his first touchdown, but came close in the loss to the Utes on what was a pass breakup many believed was a pass interference.

TE Drake Dabney

Grimes' offense features a heavy dosage of tight-end usage, so Dabney was always going to be a factor. He's been Robertson's favorite target on third down, with six of his eight receptions coming on short-yard gains. He led the Bears in touchdown receptions with three.

© Scott Wachter, USA TODAY

Defensive Leaders

DL Gabe Hall

Leading big man Siaki Ika will now be lining up on Sundays for the Cleveland Browns. That doesn't mean Hall, a 6-6 hybrid defender who can line up all over the trenches, won't be a sufficient upgrade. He remains a stalwart defending the run, but has only recorded one sack through three games. Hall also has five tackles, of which were behind the line of scrimmage.

EDGE Bryon Vaughns

Vaughns actually began his career at Texas before electing to enter the transfer portal. Two years and a handful of tackles at Utah State later, Vaughns is back in the Big 12. He leads the Bears with sacks (2) and ranks second in tackles for loss (2.5)

LB Mike Smith

Smith, a transfer from Liberty, has continued to produce since joining the squad this offseason. Last year with the Flames, the 6-1 senior notched 85 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and a sack. He was limited against Long Island but did total at least five tackles — including a season-high of eight — against Utah.

CB Caden Jenkins

A true freshman from Lewisville, Jenkins already has carved out a role as the team's starting boundary cornerback. He's had his struggles, allowing two touchdowns in coverage against Texas State, but he does possess the most upside. Against Utah, Jenkins broke up a pass in the end zone intended for Thomas Yassmin, leading to a turnover on downs.