Three Reasons Why Texas Won't Win Big 12

The Texas Longhorns are the favorites to win the Big 12 next season, but, if history has shown anything, they are not always guaranteed to live up to expectations.

There are high expectations on the Forty Acres this year.

It feels as if it's a lost season if the Texas Longhorns don't win the Big 12, but On3's Jesse Simonton listed three reasons they won't hoist the conference trophy in their last season before their move to the Southeastern Conference.

1. The Longhorns continue to lose close games

A year ago, Texas' five losses were all by a touchdown or less — a trend all too familiar in Austin.

In the past five seasons, 19 of the Longhorns' 24 losses were by one score or less.

"What if they haven’t solved their second-half bugaboos?" Simonton wrote. "What if Sark continues to get tight late in games? What if the team’s situational football doesn’t improve? That’s how you win eight games instead of 10 — and miss out on the Big 12 title."

2. The Longhorns’ 2023 schedule is tricky

Texas plays a new Big 12 schedule that features new conference additions Houston and BYU.

The Longhorns have a big test in the beginning of the season against Alabama — one of just two matchups outside the Lone Star State. Texas also has conference games against the top-five preseason win totals in Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech.

"The game at Alabama won’t have any immediate impact on the Big 12 standings, but what if the Longhorns suffer a couple of notable injuries in the national spotlight affair before starting conference play?" Simonton wrote. "Despite so much excitement around the Longhorns this fall, there’s a reason why they have the same preseason win-total as Oklahoma and some view Kansas State as a safer choice to repeat as league champs."

3. Texas misses the two-headed tailback of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson

Replacing former running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson and the impact they had on Texas' offense in 2023 is virtually impossible.

Next season, the Longhorns will look to running backs Jonathon Brooks and CJ Baxter to try and carry the load and take the pressure off the shoulders of quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Simonton has his questions not only about the ball-carriers at their disposal, but also with the play-calling Steve Sarkisian exhibited last season.

"Brooks didn’t see any action in nine games in 2022. What if he isn’t ready to carry the load? What if 5-star freshman CJ Baxter isn’t ready for primetime either?" Simonton wrote. "Even with the best tailback in the country last season Sarkisian got pass-happy late in games at times. What happens if he doesn’t truly trust more inexperienced opinions this fall?"

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You can follow Casey Smith on Twitter @casey_smith2419

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