Game Prediction: UCF at SMU

Can UCF go to Dallas and find a way to knock off a really explosive SMU team?

Brian Smith | Nov 13, 2021

DALLAS - Today is the day. The Knights get a chance to win their second road game of the 2021 season, and do it this time against a really good football team. The Mustangs are 7-2, and they win with an explosive offense.

The Knights will need to counter what SMU likes to do by playing its own style of football, but an additional push for big passing plays. Here are three categories to watch as the Knights take on the Mustangs.

Winning the Line of Scrimmage

To beat a really good passing team, the Knights need to run the football and also stop the run. That starts with the UCF offensive line and defensive line playing at a high level, just like both units have been playing for much of the 2021 season.

Running the football is what UCF likes to do to begin with, and it helps eat up the clock as well. That will keep the offense for the Mustangs on the sidelines, and probably shorten how many possessions they have the football themselves.

On defense, UCF needs to make SMU one dimensional as a passing-only team. If not, and the Mustangs can run or pass, the Knights hold little chance of keeping SMU under 35 if not 42 points.

That’s an already explosive offense just with SMU’s passing game, but watch out for running backs Tre Siggers and Tyler Lavine, as they combined for 73 yards rushing last week. That’s just enough rushing yardage for the Mustangs to keep any opposing defense honest.

Who’s Truly Healthy?

Injuries always play a role with college football, and this game will be no different. UCF absolutely needs solid if not great performances from running back Isaiah Bowser and wide receiver Jaylon Robinson. If one or both of these young men cannot perform at a high level for the Knights, it’s going to be quite difficult to beat the Mustangs.

Jaylon Robinson, Wide Receiver, UCF / UCF Athletics

Those are two big-time players, and UCF needs to match the skill talent for SMU. That will not happen with Bowser and/or Robinson not playing near full strength. Time will tell, but this is probably the most important category of the three listed here within this article.

Big Plays From the UCF Passing Game

There’s little doubt that SMU will generate passing yardage and score points. They average 40.1 points per game, and scored over 50 points twice this season. Further, the SMU provides a quality defense that’s allowed only 117 yards rushing during their last two games combined, making Keene’s passing efforts all the more important because there could be periods of the game where the Knights struggle to run the football.

To help offset what the Mustangs accomplish, the UCF passing attack needs to also make a splash when passing the pigskin. This could be from play-action passing, the screen game or just a simple slant route. Regardless of how it’s done, UCF must hit big passing plays, and that leads to one particular player.

It’s time for freshman quarterback Mikey Keene to take another step forward and be more than an occasional playmaker. He’s an accurate passer and he’s also made much quicker decisions the past two games. It’s obvious that the light came on for Keene’s mental adjustment to the college game. Now let’s see it versus SMU and help lead UCF to victory.

Final Thoughts

SMU has been on a down slide by losing its last two games, and it appears to be ripe for a knockout, or are they? Hard to truly say, but that’s why college football is so unpredictable.

Assuming Bowser and Robinson play, the Knights possess more than enough firepower to win this football game. In a tightly contested game, UCF pulls off the road upset.

UCF 34 SMU 31

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