Virginia vs. Maryland Game Preview, Score Prediction
Update: Follow along with score updates and live analysis for Virginia vs. Maryland here: Virginia vs. Maryland Live Updates | College Football
For the first time in nearly a decade, the border-state rivalry between Virginia and Maryland will be renewed as the Cavaliers head up to College Park to take on the Terrapins on Friday night. As UVA looks to beat its old ACC rival and earn its first victory of the season, here's a full preview of Virginia vs. Maryland, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (0-2) at Maryland Terrapins (2-0)
When: Friday, September 15th at 7pm ET
Where: SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland (54,000)
How to watch: FS1
How to listen: SiriusXM 138 or 293 | Virginia Sports Radio Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Maryland leads 44-32-2
Last meeting: Maryland defeated Virginia 27-26 on October 12th, 2013 in College Park.
Spread: Maryland -14.5
Over/under: 48
Read Virginia's injury report for the Maryland game.
See UVA's depth chart for the Maryland game.
Notes
- Virginia and Maryland played every season for 57 years as ACC rivals, but this will be the first meeting between the two schools since 2013, the final year before the Terrapins joined the Big Ten.
- Maryland faces an ACC opponent in the regular season for the first time since 2013.
- UVA's last victory over Maryland was in 2011, when the Cavaliers defeated the Terrapins 31-13 in College Park. Maryland won the last two meetings between the two teams.
- Virginia is 5-3 in its last eight games against Big Ten opponents, but the Cavaliers are seeking their first road win against a Big Ten team since 2011.
- UVA owns a 69-58-1 all-time record in night games, including a 26-37 mark in road night games.
- After losing its first two games of the season, Virginia is looking to avoid going 0-3 to start the year for the first time since 2016.
Opponent Scouting Report: Maryland
2023: 2-0
2022: 8-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Maryland enters this week's matchup on a four-game winning streak, having ended its 8-5 2022 season with a blowout win over Rutgers and then a victory over NC State in the Duke's Mayo Bowl and then starting the 2023 season with a pair of relatively comfortable wins. This will be the first significant test for the Terrapins, though, as they crushed Towson 38-6 in week 1 and then erased an early 14-0 deficit to beat Charlotte 38-20 last weekend.
Naturally, the engine of the Maryland offense is quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who is now in his third season as the full-time starter for the Terrapins and already holds most of the career and single-season passing records in Maryland program history. Tagovailoa is a prolific downfield passer and a threat to use his legs, but his greatest asset as a quarterback is his accuracy. His current career completion percentage of 67.4% is the fourth-best of any quarterback in the history of the Big Ten. Tagovailoa has amassed 8,635 yards of total offense in 31 career games and has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. There are many weapons on the Maryland offense to keep the UVA defense busy, but containing Taulia Tagovailoa is Virginia's first and most challenging priority.
Unlike Virginia, Maryland makes frequent use of its tight ends in the passing game. Tagovailoa's favorite target is redshirt junior tight end Corey Dyches, who is currently second among all FBS tight ends with 12 catches for 139 receiving yards and a touchdown this season. Four other Terrapin receivers have at least six catches and 50 receiving yards, headlined by Jeshaun Jones, who has eight receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown, and Kaden Prather, who has six catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
Behind an imposing offensive line, Maryland has had success both last season and continuing this season running the football with tailback Roman Hemby. Coming off an outstanding 2022 campaign that saw him rush for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, Hemby already has 220 rushing yards and two touchdowns through two games this year. Hemby is also a threat in the passing game and currently leads the Big Ten with 144.5 all-purpose yards per game. His 7.1 yards per carry is second in the Big Ten. Virginia's run defense faltered late in the loss to JMU last weekend. The Cavaliers will have to be better plugging the gaps at the line of scrimmage to prevent Hemby from running wild.
Similar to the UVA defense, Maryland's defense made huge strides from 2021 to 2022 under a new defensive coordinator, allowing 13.1 fewer points per game (38.8 to 25.7). Maryland's pass defense was particularly good in 2022, finishing 18th in the country in passing efficiency defense and that trend has continued this season, as the Terrapins haven't allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight consecutive games.
Their success defending against the pass relies on their front seven being sound against the run and generating pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. That could spell trouble for Virginia with its struggling offensive line and inability to run the football at all so far this season.
One player to keep an eye on for Maryland on the defensive side of the ball is sophomore linebacker Jaishawn Barham, who was an All-Big Ten honorable mention as a freshman and is well on his way to another great season with two sacks already.
Keys to the Game
Avoid penalties and 3rd and long situations
Saturday's loss to JMU was hardly due to a lack of offensive production for Virginia. 395 yards of total offense and 35 points will often get the job done. But after going on a 28-7 run over the second and third quarters to seize control of the game, UVA's offense sputtered in the fourth quarter with back-to-back punts and a turnover on downs to end the game. Of course, being able to run the football would have been the perfect solution in that situation, killing the clock and keeping JMU's offense off the field. But UVA having an effective ground game seems to be too lofty of a goal right now, so we'll focus on two other areas of concern. Virginia's offense committed three pre-snap false starts and two costly holding penalties. Those must be cleaned up and UVA must avoid falling behind the chains into pass-only 3rd and long situations. Virginia was just 4/13 on third-down conversions. That has to change.
Stop the run
Stopping the pass is arguably just as important as stopping the run, but the Cavaliers won't have a chance against the Terrapins if Maryland's offensive line and Roman Hemby are allowed to run the ball at will. UVA gave up 5.5 yards per carry and 287 total rushing yards to Tennessee and 4.9 yards per carry and 167 rushing yards to JMU. Virginia's defensive line has been disappointing, not getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and, more importantly, failing to win matchups at the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Terrapins have a very clear path to success in this game if they are able to run the ball effectively and put together long scoring drives that keeps the UVA offense off the field for extended stretches.
Play four full quarters
Virginia shouldn't be searching for its first win in this game. UVA was up 35-24 in the 4th quarter against JMU and simply did not match the intensity of the Dukes after the weather delay. Those were challenging circumstances, but things won't be any easier for the Cavaliers on the road in a hostile environment against a Big Ten opponent. Pulling the upset at Maryland will require a complete four-quarter effort from the Hoos top to bottom.
Prediction
As expected, the Cavaliers' brutal schedule is catching up with them. We have no argument against the need to play tough opponents in order to build a program, but with this roster and its new pieces and lack of experience, an easier non-conference slate would have been quite beneficial. There were lots of bright spots in the heartbreakingly close loss to JMU and even in the blowout loss to Tennessee, promising signals that this team can and will win games this season. But not this week. Virginia gives Maryland a good fight, but not enough to pull the upset on the road.
Score prediction: Maryland 34, Virginia 24
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