Virginia vs. NC State Game Preview, Score Prediction

Game details and notes, scouting report, keys to the game, and predictions for the UVA football ACC opener against NC State

After a frustrating 0-3 start to the season, Virginia will look to right the ship as conference play begins with NC State coming to town on Friday night at Scott Stadium. There's plenty at stake with both teams looking to open ACC play with a win, but there are also a few storylines creating additional intrigue in this matchup. Friday will see the return of former UVA quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who owns most of Virginia's all-time quarterbacking records, as well as former UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae and offensive line coach Garett Tujague, all of whom are members of the Wolfpack now. There's also the question of Armstrong's quarterback counterpart, with the Cavaliers potentially having both Anthony Colandrea and Tony Muskett at their disposal on Friday night. 

As we get set for one of the more fascinating matchups of the 2023 UVA football season, read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. NC State, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a score prediction. 

Game Details

Who: NC State Wolfpack (2-1) at Virginia Cavaliers (0-3)

When: Friday, September 22nd at 7:30pm ET

Where: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ESPN

How to listen: SiriusXM 81 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

All-time series: NC State leads 36-22-1

Last meeting: NC State defeated Virginia 38-21 on October 10th, 2020 in Charlottesville. 

Spread: NC State -9.5

Over/under: 47.5

Read Virginia's injury report for the NC State game here.

See UVA's depth chart for the NC State game here.

Notes

• This will be the 60th all-time meeting between Virginia and NC State, but just the fifth game between the two teams in the last 15 years. 
• NC State holds a 36-22-1 all-time record against Virginia, but UVA is 16-11 against NC State in the last 40 years. 
• Virginia hosts its ACC opener for the first time since 2020 and the Cavaliers have won each of their last four conference openers played at home. 
• UVA owns a 69-59-1 record in night games and a 43-20-1 record in home night games. This will be Virginia's first Friday night home game since facing Wake Forest in September 2021. 
• Virginia is looking to avoid starting 0-4 for the first time since the 1982 season, George Welsh's first season at UVA.

Opponent Scouting Report: NC State

2023: 2-1
2022: 8-5, 4-4 ACC

NC State went 8-5 last season, including a thrilling double overtime win over North Carolina in the regular season finale. But as the Wolfpack looked to continue to build their program under Dave Doeren, it was imperative that they sure up their quarterback position as Devin Leary played just six games last year due to injury and then transferred to Kentucky this offseason. The answer to that QB question turned out to be none other than former UVA quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who entered the transfer portal following a frustrating season in his first year playing for Tony Elliott. Armstrong ultimately chose to transfer to NC State, reuniting with his old UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae. Together, Armstrong and Anae hoped to replicate their success from the 2021 season, when the Cavaliers fielded one of the most prolific passing offenses in the entire country. 

The 2023 NC State iteration of the Armstrong/Anae offense is not quite the same. It's less of an air raid and more balanced, with the Wolfpack actually running the ball more than they've thrown it so far this season. The results have been mixed. NC State's offense struggled in a lackluster 24-14 win at UConn to start the season and then couldn't keep up with Notre Dame in a 45-24 loss. Last week, NC State pretty much took care of business in a 45-7 win over VMI, but it's difficult to get a good read on NC State's potential so far based on those three games. 

Armstrong has been fine, but he is still far from returning to his near-Heisman candidate form from the 2021 season. He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 679 yards and three touchdowns and he has thrown three interceptions, each of which came against Notre Dame. The passing game struggled against UConn, but Armstrong rushed 19 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Armstrong seems to be just as willing as ever to tuck and run, as he has 161 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns as NC State's leading rusher so far this season. 

It was announced on Thursday that the team's top running back, Jordan Houston, will be redshirting the remainder of the season. Even so, Kendrick Raphael, Delbert Mimms III and Michael Allen give the Wolfpack a plethora of options at running back. NC State is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 121 rushing attempts so far. 

In the passing game, NC State had to replace three of its four leading receivers from a season ago. True freshman Kevin "KC" Concepcion is the team's leading receiver with 16 catches for 122 yards through three games. Five other Wolfpack receivers have at least six catches on the season, including Julian Gray, who ranks in the top 10 in the ACC with 18.2 yards per reception and was named the ACC Special Teams Player of the Week after returning a kick for a touchdown last week. Rice grad transfer Bradley Rozner is responsible for two of the team's three receiving touchdowns and gives Armstrong a big target to throw to with his 6'4", 200-pound frame. 

It's a small sample size, but so far NC State has been quite effective in the red zone and on third downs. The Wolfpack have scored touchdowns on nine of their 12 red zone trips and are 26/48 (54.2%) on third down conversions, which ranks 11th in the country.

On the other side of the ball, NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson is known for his frequent blitzes and emphasis on putting constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That trend has continued this season, with NC State totaling nine sacks as a team, which ranks 27th in all of college football. Junior defensive tackle Davin Vann leads the way up front with three sacks and a forced fumble, while graduate linebacker Payton Wilson is the team's leading tackler with 33 total stops, which ranks top 10 in the country. 

UVA offensive coordinator Des Kitchings says he is expecting heavy blitzes from NC State especially early in the game, making Virginia's work-in-progress offensive line even more of a factor. The Wolfpack have a lot of confidence in their cornerbacks - namely Shyheim Battle and First-Team All-ACC selection Aydan White. Battle and White allow NC State to load up in the box, effectively rushing the quarterback and stopping the run, while relying on Battle and White to handle man coverage on the outside. 

Regardless of who Virginia starts at quarterback, it's imperative that UVA's offensive line give him time to throw and Anthony Colandrea/Tony Muskett will have to test the one-on-one matchups and hope that Malachi Fields and Malik Washington, who have so far been phenomenal for the Cavaliers, can win those battles. It would also help if another receiver emerged for a big game - perhaps JR Wilson or Suderian Harrison. Of course, an effective ground game would work wonders for the UVA offense, but that might be wishful thinking at this point with Virginia currently ranking No. 126 nationally (out of 130 teams) in terms of rushing offense. 

Keys to the Game

Put pressure on Brennan Armstrong and capitalize on his risky throws.

In Brennan Armstrong's last game in this stadium, he threw back-to-back pick sixes in a blowout loss. How Armstrong plays in his return to Scott Stadium could be the No. 1 determining factor of who comes out on top in this game. His chances of having a great game escalates exponentially if he has a clean pocket. Virginia's defensive line has just three sacks so far this season. That's going to have to change and the Cavaliers will have to generate some pressure on Armstrong to force him to make mistakes. In the secondary, UVA needs to stay disciplined and capitalize when Armstrong tries to force some risky throws. 

Continue to make progress on the offensive line and possess the ball.

Virginia saw some progress on the offensive line last week at Maryland, partly due to putting Brian Stevens at center and Ty Furnish at right guard, but also as a function of the line developing some synergy together as the season goes on. The Cavaliers have to continue to progress up front and keep their quarterback clean, whether that's Colandrea or Muskett. Again, we'd also ask for some semblance of a run game, but we won't hold our breath on that one. What is important is that Virginia possess the ball on offense, keeping Armstrong off the field for as long as possible. 

Play a complete game.

We said this as one of our three keys last week and we'll say it again. Virginia must play four complete quarters of football, including and especially the fourth quarter. In week 2 against JMU, Virginia squandered an 11-point fourth quarter lead. Last week at Maryland, UVA trailed by just one touchdown early in the fourth quarter but ended up losing by 28 points. Learning how to finish close games is a necessity if the Cavaliers want to experience any amount of success this season. 

Prediction

The final score of last week's loss at Maryland got ugly, but anyone who watched the game knows that Virginia was very much in it for most of the game. With the exception of the season opener against Tennessee, the Cavaliers haven't really been outmatched by their opponents and have competed well despite their 0-3 record. Virginia can hang with NC State and could win this game, but until the Hoos show that they can play complimentary football for a full four quarters, the odds will be stacked against them. UVA puts up a good fight, but NC State comes away with a win to send Virginia to 0-4. 

Score prediction: NC State 31, Virginia 24

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