2022-23 ACC Basketball Preview: Florida State Seminoles
Head Coach: Leonard Hamilton (21st season)
2021 in Review
Record: 17-14 (10-10)
ACC Finish: 8th Place
KenPom Ranking: 105 (130 offense, 106 defense)
ACC Tournament: 96-57 L vs. Syracuse
Leonard Hamilton’s program has been one of the nation’s best since 2017. The Seminoles were in line for a No. 1 seed in the 2020 NCAA Tournament before COVID struck, and they made it to the Sweet 16 or better in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Missing the postseason last year was an anomaly that I don't expect to repeat anytime soon.
The Seminoles won six straight games in January and at one point sat at 13-5, with a 6-2 ACC record. However, the injury bug hit Hamilton’s team hard, and the season slipped away from them. NINE rotation players missed time due to injury. The most devastating blow came at the end of January when Malik Osborne suffered a season-ending injury. From Jan. 25 - Feb. 21, the ‘Noles went on to lose eight of their next nine contests. Florida State built some momentum at the end of the year, winning their last three regular season games. The optimism for a late season push came crashing down when Syracuse blew the doors off of them in the ACC Tournament.
The down year wasn’t without its highlights, which included a home win over Duke, and an unbelievable game winning three-pointer from Matthew Cleveland to take down Virginia in Charlottesville.
2022 Outlook:
Who’s Out: Malik Osborne, Anthony Polite, Rayquan Evans, John Butler
Who’s In: Darin Green Jr. (UCF), Jaylan Gainey (Brown), Baba Miller, Cameron Corhen, Chandler Jackson, De’Ante Green
Projected Starting Lineup:
So. G Jalen Warley (6-6, 200)
R-Jr. G Caleb Mills (6-5, 180)
So. G Matthew Cleveland (6-7, 200)
Jr. F Cam’Ron Fletcher (6-7, 215)
So. C Naheem McLeod (7-4, 255)
Off the bench:
Jr. G Darin Green Jr. (6-5, 195)
Fr. F Cameron Corhen (6-10, 225)
Fr. F Baba Miller (6-11, 204)
Sr. F Jaylan Gainey (6-10, 220)
Fr. G Chandler Jackson (6-4, 215)
Fr. G Jeremiah Bembry (6-6, 185)
Fr. F De’Ante Green (6-10, 210)
Fr. G Tom House (6-7, 200)
The Seminoles lose four key players from last season in Malik Osborne (10.0 PTS, 6.9 REB), Anthony Polite (9.9 PTS, 5.6 REB), Rayquan Evans (8.0 PTS, 3.2 AST), and John Butler (5.9 PTS, 1.2 BLK). Osborne, Polite and Evans ran out of eligibility, while the 7-3 Butler declared for the draft. While these guys were all good players, this year’s team will still be better.
Leonard Hamilton’s teams all have the same identity. A deep bench, balanced scoring, and high-pressure full court defense. It’s hard to play 30 minutes a game the way they play, so it's important that there are many different players who can hurt you on any given day.
One of the guys who can lead the way is 6-5 combo guard Caleb Mills (12.7 PTS, 2.4 AST, 1.5 STL) who transferred over from Houston before last season. Mills is a flat out bucket getter - he’s got a tremendous handle and can create for himself whenever he wants. There was a reason he was voted Preseason Player of the year in the American Conference back in 2020-21 — he's a star.
Also returning to the backcourt are two big sophomore guards who are in line to take significant steps forward. One of them is 6-7 Matthew Cleveland (11.5 PTS, 4.6 REB), who was voted the ACC Sixth Man of the Year as a freshman. He’s a quick, strong and long athlete who can really get downhill. The only thing missing from his game is an outside shot (.17 3PT%), which he's reportedly been working hard to improve in the offseason.
Warley (3.7 PTS, 2.5 AST, 1.2 STL) is my pick for Most Improved Player in the ACC. He has a great feel for the game, and showed spurts of being a strong on-ball defender last season. With his size, smooth shooting stroke and ability to get in the lane, I expect him to at least triple his scoring output as a sophomore.
Hamilton made a move to add a long range shooter when he brought in Darin Green Jr. from UCF. Green (13.3 PTS, .39 3PT%) has three years of college ball under his belt, and should immediately step into a key role with his shooting ability. He hit four our more threes in 13 different games last year.
Kentucky transfer Cam’Ron Fletcher is back for his second season in Tallahassee. Fletcher (6.8 PTS, 3.4 REB) is a talented and versatile piece who plays hard and can defend multiple positions.
Hamilton usually has multiple seven-footers on his roster. The only one this season is 7-4 sophomore Naheem McLeod. McLeod (4.5 PTS, 2.1 REB) can move up and down the court well for his size. Expect him to throw down plenty of lobs and improve on his rim protection (0.4 BLK) this season.
READ: Clemson Basketball Preview
Another big get this offseason was Brown transfer Jaylan Gainey (9.3 PTS, 6.9 REB, 2.1 BLK), a two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year. His athleticism and defensive versatility make him a perfect fit for this group.
The most intriguing player on this roster is freshman Baba Miller, who chose the Seminoles over Gonzaga. The 6-11 Spaniard hit a massive late growth spurt, as he grew nine inches in high school. Miller has impressive guard skills for his size because of the growth spurt, and he can essentially do it all on the basketball court.
Miller isn’t the only stud freshman on this roster. Hamilton has brought in the No. 14 recruiting class in the nation according to 247sports. Four-star Cameron Corhen is an athletic, high-energy 6-10 big who can help stretch the floor for the Noles. His high school teammates at Sunrise Christian academy include incoming Wake freshman Bobi Klintman, Mark Mitchell (Duke) and Gradey Dick (Kansas).
Chandler Jackson is a tough 6-4 guard whose physicality and athleticism will help him carve out a bench role. Tom House was the Player of the Year in Ohio and is a knockdown three-point shooter. He could replace the graduated Wyatt Wilkes as the resident three-point specialist.
De’Ante Green is another front court player ranked in the top 100 joining the Seminoles. He tore his ACL his senior year of high school, so his status for the season is still up in the air. 6-6 guard Jeremiah Bembry is a fluid player with great size for his position. He’ll look to find a spot in the rotation this year.
READ: Boston College Basketball Preview
ACC Prediction: 1st place
I'm in on Florida State.
FSU has star power in Caleb Mills and Matthew Cleveland. Neither of them showed up on the Preseason All-ACC teams, but I think they both will compete for First Team honors. These guys are really tough to guard and can score at all three levels.
The Seminoles will go at least 10 deep, and this roster boasts the size and athleticism that makes Hamilton’s teams go. This team will rebound and defend at a high level, and there’s enough guys who can score to form a balanced offensive attack.
Plus, last year sputtering out of control could end up being a blessing in disguise for returning players Warley, Cleveland, McLeod and Fletcher, who likely learned a lot from that struggle. Fletcher and Gainey fit perfectly on this roster as role players. The outside shooting will be much better with the addition of Green and the development of Cleveland and Warley.
The x-factor for this team reaching its ceiling is Baba Miller. He’s a bit of a wild card coming from Spain, but it’s hard to not get excited watching him on film. If he can adjust to the college game, he could play his way into the first round.
Scottie Barnes (2020) and Patrick Williams (2019) were both selected 4th overall in the NBA Draft after coming off the bench and playing less than 24 minutes a game in Tallahassee. This program has become a breeding ground for NBA talent, as Hamilton has produced 10 draft picks since 2016.
Cleveland, Warley and Miller all have the talent to make that jump after this season. I’m betting on that talent to win out, and for a legendary coach to fit these pieces together.
When does Florida State play Wake Forest?
Jan 11: Florida State at Wake Forest
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Christian is the Publisher and Lead Editor for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Christian spent 4 years covering the Men's Basketball team for the student paper, the Old Gold & Black