2023 ACC Basketball Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels
Head Coach: Hubert Davis (2nd season)
2021 in Review
Record: 29-10 (15-5)
ACC Finish: 3rd place
KenPom Ranking: 16 (18 Offense, 35 Defense)
ACC Tournament: 63-43 W vs Virginia, 72-59 L vs Virginia Tech
NCAA Tournament: 95-63 W vs Marquette, 93-86 W vs Baylor, 73-66 W vs UCLA, 69-49 W vs Saint Peter’s, 81-77 W vs Duke, 72-69 L vs Kansas
Hubert Davis’ first season was truly one to remember. The Tar Heels were oh-so-close to winning a National Championship in April. Blowing a 16-point lead in the championship game will always sting, but it’s hard to consider Davis’ first year in relief of Roy Williams as anything but a massive success.
The Tar Heels’ campaign is even more impressive considering how Davis responded to early criticism. The Tar Heels were impressive at times throughout the regular season, but turned in far too many letdown performances. The eventual National Runner-Up lost five games by 17 or more points, and even fell to lowly Pitt at home. They did win seven of eight games entering the ACC Tournament, none more important than a 94-81 win over Duke in Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor.
The Tar Heels displayed the yin-yang that made them such an enigmatic team all season in the ACC Tournament. They took care of business with Virginia easily to the tune of a 63-43 victory before getting totally outclassed by Virginia Tech, 72-59. UNC earned an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The magical run began with a 32-point walloping of Marquette. They were spanking the defending champion Baylor Bears in round two, up 67-42, but things spiraled out of control when Brady Manek was ejected and Caleb Love fouled out. Baylor sent the game to overtime, but UNC regrouped and escaped with a win. The Tar Heels took care of UCLA and tournament darling Saint Peter’s before the unimaginable happened — the first ever Duke-UNC March Madness game. And the Tar Heels delivered again.
Kansas completed the largest comeback in NCAA Championship game history to emerge victorious, but the Tar Heels turned in an incredible run. Spolining Coach K’s farewell tour on two separate occasions still gave the fanbase plenty to be proud of (and eternal bragging rights). Seven players saw playing time in that championship matchup. Six of them are back this season.
2022 Outlook:
Who’s Out: Brady Manek, Kerwin Walton (Texas Tech), Dawson Garcia (Minnesota),
Who’s In: Pete Nance (Northwestern), Seth Trimble, Jalen Washington, Tyler Nickel, Will Shaver
Projected Starting Lineup
Jr. G R.J. Davis (6-0, 175 lbs)
Jr. G Caleb Love (6-4, 200)
Gr. F Leaky Black (6-9, 205)
Gr. F Pete Nance (6-11, 230)
Sr. C Armando Bacot (6-11, 235)
Off the bench
Jr. F Puff Johnson (6-8, 200)
So. F Dontrez Styles (6-6, 210)
Sr. F Justin McKoy (6-8, 220)
So. G D’Marco Dunn (6-5, 190)
Fr. G Seth Trimble (6-3, 192 lbs)
Fr. C Will Shaver (6-10, 260)
Fr. F Tyler Nickel (6-7, 220)
Fr. F Jalen Washington (6-10, 225)
Brady Manek (15.9 PPG, 5.9 REB) and his sharpshooting will be missed, but the Tar Heels are locked and loaded for another deep tournament run come March. They are the AP Preseason No. 1.
It starts with the core of four returning starters. On the interior, preseason ACC Player of the Year Armando Bacot will continue to be one of the most dominant players in the NCAA. Bacot (16.3 PPG, 13.1 REB, 1.7 BLK) is an excellent rebounder and an efficient scorer around the basket, as well as an elite rim protector. The area for improvement is at the free throw stripe (.67 FT%), something that he’s gotten better at each of his first three years in college.
Guards Caleb Love (15.9 PPG, 3.6 AST) and RJ Davis (13.5 PPG, 3.6 AST) are back for their junior seasons. As expected, both players took big strides in 2021. They both improved their scoring averages and shooting percentages from the field, long range and the free-throw line.
Both of these guys are big-time shot makers that can get hot and take over a game. Davis turned in memorable performances in the regular season finale against Duke (21 points) and vs Baylor in the second round of the tournament (30 points). Love scored 30 in the Sweet Sixteen game against UCLA, and 28 in the Final Four win over Duke.
Love developed a relationship with Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard over the summer, winning MVP at his camp. The talented guard can be sporadic at times, taking questionable shots or being careless with the ball. He has improved a lot as a passer, and I expect his decision making to improve as well.
Leaky Black is back for his fifth year of school and will continue to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Black (4.9 PPG, 4.3 REB) doesn’t need the ball to contribute in a big way. He’s limited offensively, but his shooting numbers have improved throughout his time in Chapel Hill, so it's possible that he lets it fly a bit more this season.
Davis made a move to add fifth-year Pete Nance (14.6 PPG, 6.5 REB, 2.7 AST) from Northwestern, a skilled big who will fit into the Brady Manek role. Nance isn’t as lethal as Manek as a shooter, but when he’s squared up, he hits from deep at a very high clip (.45 3PT%). He's also can score from the post. Nance is an experienced fundamental player who I expect to fit right in with this group.
Off the bench, Puff Johnson, Dontrez Styles, and D’Marco Dunn will look to earn more minutes this season. The talented youngsters all averaged less than 10 minutes per game last season.
Johnson was crucial in the Championship game, chipping in 11 points in 18 minutes. His contribution will be to provide energy off the bench and defensive versatility with his 6-8 frame. If he can figure out how to shoot it as well as his brother Cameron, that would be a huge boost.
Styles was an unsung hero of the Tar Heels March run. With Love and Manek out of the game, Styles was thrust into a career high 25 minutes, and contributed in a big way. He scored nine points, including a three ball to open overtime, and played really hard defensively. I see his role increasing this year.
Like Styles, Dunn was a top 70 recruit last year who didn’t see the court much. Dunn is a talented guard, and the word is that he’s a really good shooter. He didn’t perform well in limited minutes last year, but a boost from him would enhance this team.
Senior Justin McKoy also returns to add some depth. McKoy is a bruiser who is very limited offensively, but has the experience to contribute in other ways and will likely remain in a simliar reserve role.
Coach Davis brings in the No. 17 recruiting class in the nation according to 247sports. UNC’s past formula implies that none of these guys will play much this year, but they are all very talented and there’s always exceptions to that code. If one of the freshmen breaks through it’ll be Seth Trimble, a strong and explosive point guard at 6-3. He’s also the brother of former Tar Heel JP Tokoto.
Jalen Washington is a 6-10 face-up four who is skilled offensively. Tyler Nickel is a strong 6-7 wing who can add some three-point shooting. Will Shaver is also part of this class, although he enrolled second semester last year and redshirted. He’s got good size at 6-10, 260 lbs. and could be a guy who sees minutes if Bacot gets in foul trouble.
ACC Prediction: 2nd place
My prediction is that Florida State surprises everyone and wins the ACC, but UNC is the best team in the conference. Expectations are sky high with the core of last year’s Final Four team all back. This year, this program and this fan base won’t be satisfied with anything short of cutting down the nets.
We know what to expect from Bacot, Love, and Davis. It would be a big surprise any of them didn’t receive All-ACC honors. Black and Nance are older, experienced guys who are perfect complementary pieces. This is arguably the best starting five in the nation. Coach Davis didn’t trust his depth enough last year and kept the rotation tight, but that will be a goal of his this season.
Sure, Carolina was an 8-seed in the tournament, but their run wasn’t a huge surprise. They always had the talent, and displayed their ceiling in flashes. A handful of head-scratching losses where this team got completely outplayed are pretty surprising in hindsight. I don’t expect those puzzling off games to carry over into this year. This team has a ton of confidence, and Davis won’t have to go through the same growing pains in year two at the helm. As long as the core stays healthy, I don’t see how this isn’t a season-long top 10 team.
When does North Carolina play Wake Forest?
January 4th: Wake Forest at North Carolina
February 7th: North Carolina at Wake Forest
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Christian is the Publisher and Lead Editor for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Christian spent 4 years covering the Men's Basketball team for the student paper, the Old Gold & Black