NC State vs Duke: Preview and Prediction - ACC Basketball Pick of the Day
The Blue Devils look to acquire their first road win of the season as they visit NC State on Wednesday night.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Spread: Duke -5.5
Total: 144
Duke Team Overview:
Record: 11-3 (2-1)
KenPom Ranking: 14th (22nd Offensive, 29th Defensive)
Recent Games: W 86-67 vs Florida State, L 81-70 at Wake Forest, W 82-55 at Maryland-Eastern
Leading Scorers:
Fr. C Kyle Filipowski (13.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.3 spg)
Jr. G Jeremy Roach (12.5 ppg, 3.4 apg, 1.2 spg)
Fr. F Mark Mitchell (9.7 ppg, 51.5 FG%, 46.2 3PT%)
With the exception of a 74-62 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes on a neutral court in early December, the Blue Devils have wasted several different opportunities to prove themselves. The road loss to Wake Forest is understandable considering they were without top freshman recruits Dereck Lively and Dariq Whitehead. Duke got right back on track after the Holiday break, handling a weakened Florida State team.
First-year head coach Jon Scheyer has largely relied on fledgling center Kyle “Flip” Filipowski to drive his offense early this season. Jeremy Roach hasn't shot the ball well this year (37.8 FG%) but he's still been very good. Long range shooting is the main weakness of this offense, as Duke ranks in the bottom third of the ACC in three point percentage (32.6%). During the Coach K era, only three of his 42 teams boasted a lower mark than this year’s Duke squad currently does at 73.9 ppg.
That's why the recent emergence of sophomore guard Jaylen Blakes has been such a revelation. Blakes hadn’t scored in double figures in his college career until the Wake Forest game, and he’s coming off of back to back 17-point performances. He could be the answer to Duke’s three-point shooting woes — he’s 7-10 from downtown in those two contests.
Whitehead is also beginning to look increasingly comfortable. He scored a career high 16 points in the win over the Seminoles. Lively, the No. 1 recruit in this year's class, has still yet to be unlocked. He's only scored in double figures once this season (11 points vs Ohio State).
Key Stat:
The Blue Devils have held nearly all of their opponents below their season scoring averages so far this year, including top-25 offenses like Iowa and Xavier. This has allowed Duke to rank in the top 25 in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 60.9 points per game.
READ: Can Wake Forest slow down Armando Bacot?
North Carolina State Team Preview:
Record: 11-4 (1-3)
KenPom Ranking: 60th (46th Offensive, 80th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 78-64 at Clemson, W 76-64 vs Louisville, W 70-66 vs Vanderbilt
Leading Scorers:
So. G Terquavion Smith (18.1 ppg, 5.3 apg, 1.8 spg)
Sr. G Jarkel Joiner (15.7 ppg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (13.5, 50 FG%, 47.7 3PT%)
Despite a discouraging start to conference play, the Wolfpack have played some impressive basketball at various points throughout this season. They hung tight for most of the game with now No. 3 Kansas, and they held a double-digit second half lead over No. 12 Miami before letting it slip away. games and have won three of their last four. However, they were controlled by Clemson their last time out, and fell 78-64.
NC State's top three scorers compile one of the most talented and experienced backcourts in the ACC. Terquavion Smith is the engine behind the offense, but he's a pretty abysmal 15/55 (27.3%) from the field over his last three contests. Joiner has been cold over the same stretch as well, as he's 9/29 (31%). Morsell has been efficient all season long, and has a case for ACC Most Improved Player. He's shooting 47.7% from range on nearly six attempts per game.
State is a guard oriented team, but an x-factor in this matchup will be the play of their big men, especially on the defensive end of the floor. The Wolfpack have been without starting five man Dusan Mahorcic for over a month, and his replacement D.J. Burns is more of an offensive minded player. Burns struggled with foul trouble against Clemson, and reserve big Ebenezer Dowuona was forced into a season high 22 minutes. The 6'11" junior from Ghana has seen his minutes tank this season compared to last, when he started 27 games. Dowuona has the length and athleticism to bother Duke's bigs, and that could be the key matchup in this contest.
Key Stat:
The Wolfpack are the second highest scoring offense in the league at with 79.5 points per game. They achieve these high marks by limiting their turnovers (11.07 per game) while forcing nearly nine steals per game, which leads the ACC.
READ: KenPom predicts Wake Forest’s remaining schedule
The Pick: NC State +5.5
Scheyer and his Blue Devils failed their first test on the road this season in the loss to Wake Forest, in a game where they couldn't slow down an offense that was rolling. I foresee a similar situation here. The Wolfpack are a dangerous opponent, as they play as fast and as clean as anyone Duke has faced thus far. I expect Smith and Joiner to break out of their recent slumps, and deliver in a big time way Wednesday night in this huge opportunity for a statement game at home. With a game total of 144 suggesting a high-scoring affair and a raucous crowd behind them, don't be surprised if the Wolfpack acquire a marquee win this Wednesday. I'll scoop the points just in case.
Score Prediction: NC State 74 Duke 71
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily