Wake Forest at Duke: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest looks to be the first team to win in Cameron Indoor Stadium this season on Tuesday night.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Duke -8
Total: 147.5
Duke Team Overview:
Record: 15-6 (6-4)
KenPom: 27th (31st Offensive, 37th Defensive)
Recent Games: W 86-43 at Georgia Tech, L 78-75 at Virginia Tech, W 68-66 vs Miami
Leading Scorers:
Fr. C Kyle Filipowski (15.8 ppg, 9.4 reb, 1.2 stl)
Jr. G Jeremy Roach (11.6 ppg, 3.2 ast, 1.1 stl)
Fr. F Mark Mitchell (9.3 ppg, 4.0 reb, 40.6 3PT%)
Year one for Jon Scheyer has been an interesting one. Duke has looked awesome in spurts, but they haven’t been able to put everything together consistently. The Blue Devils have a perfect record in Cameron Indoor, but are 2-4 on the road during conference play. Both of their games this past week were away from home. On Monday, Kyle Filipowski’s 29 points weren’t enough to take down Virginia Tech. But on Saturday, Duke handed Georgia Tech the ole’ double-up special, winning 86-43.
Filipowski has been on a roll lately, averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds per game over his last five. He’s made eight triples across that stretch as well. The freshman has clearly established himself as top dog on this Blue Devils team, and has been playing at a First Team All-ACC level.
Outside of Filipowski, the rest of Scheyer’s guys have been pretty inconsistent. It doesn’t help that arguably the most talented player on the team, Dariq Whitehead, hurt his leg against Virginia Tech. He’ll return at some point this season, but it’s unclear right now how soon that will be.
Jeremy Roach has been fine since returning to the lineup last Saturday after a three game absence, but he really has not elevated his game much at all from last season. He did connect on four triples in the win over the Yellow Jackets, the most he’s made in a game since the season opener.
Freshman Mark Mitchell oozes potential with his athletic and powerful build, but is still developing as an offensive player. He has been held to eight points or fewer in five of his last eight contests. Big Ryan Young adds a nice dimension with his low post touch, but he hasn’t scored more than 11 points during the month of January.
No. 1 recruit Dereck Lively still hasn’t scored in double figures in ACC play, and it’s perplexing how with his talent profile he hasn’t been able to carve out more of a role. He’s still projected to be a first round draft pick, but other than shot blocking (1.9 blk per game) he really hasn’t made much of an impact.
One youngster who has been getting better is Tyrese Proctor. He dished out 15 assists over his last two games, and scored in double figures in four straight before only scoring seven in Saturday’s blowout. Three-point shooting is a weakness for this Duke team, and Proctor is one of the only capable shooters. He’s drilled multiple triples in four of his last six games.
Duke leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, relentlessly crashing the glass looking for second chance points. In their last two home wins over Pitt and Miami, the Blue Devils grabbed a combined 40 offensive rebounds.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 14-8 (6-5)
KenPom: 76th (29th Offensive, 162nd Defensive)
Recent Games: L 79-77 vs NC State, L 81-79 at Pitt, L 76-67 vs Virginia,
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (17.7 ppg, 6.1 ast, 1.7 stl)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (13.3 ppg, 6.3 reb, 2.9 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (13.0 ppg, 3.43reb, 41.1 3PT%)
Two weeks ago, Wake Forest was riding high. They had just handed Clemson their first ACC loss of the season, and were on a four-game winning streak. But since then, Steve Forbes’ team has lost three in a row against quality ACC opponents, letting winnable games slip through their fingertips because of poor execution.
Saturday’s home loss to NC State was the most brutal. Wake was in control for a large portion of the game, but a 19-6 run late in the second half helped power the Wolfpack to a comeback victory. The Deacs had no answer for big DJ Burns down low, who State went to in the post over and over again.
It was low-post exposure that killed Wake Forest against NC State, but it was lights-out shooting from three-point range that propelled Virginia (15-34, 44%) and Pittsburgh (18-37, 49%) to victory. Wake has been good offensively during this losing streak, but not consistently strong enough to outweigh the defensive struggles.
Tyree Appleby remains the third-leading scorer in the ACC and the top assist man, but his impressive efficiency from early on this season has disappeared. He scored 18 points and dished out seven assists in the loss to NC State, but across his last five games, he’s shooting 7-37 (18.9%) from long distance.
Cameron Hildreth averaged 19.8 points per game over the four game win streak, and has brought an important dimension of interior scoring all season long. He struggled against the Wolfpack on Saturday, shooting 5-15 from the field.
Damari Monsanto has scored 21+ in four of his last seven, and still leads the conference in three-pointers made per game with 3.1. Andrew Carr is averaging 11.7 points per game during this losing streak, but that number was 16.8 across the four-game winning streak earlier this month. He hasn’t been nearly as aggressive offensively, and only took four field goal attempts against State.
During conference play, Wake leads the ACC in effective field goal % (54.6), but ranks 13th in eFG% defense.
Flashback: Dec. 20, 2022 - Wake Forest defeats No. 14 Duke 81-70
Wake Forest entered this contest as losers of three of four, two of which were total blowouts (at Clemson, at Rutgers). Duke on the other hand was a top 15 team in the country, and had only lost to Kansas and Purdue.
Wake ended up controlling most of this game by getting to the free-throw line and hitting them at a high clip (22-26, 84.6%), while Duke struggled from behind the arc (8-27, 29.6%). Filipowski shot 0-6 from range, and turned in his second lowest scoring output of the season. He did however power through Carr a few times down low, which will be a matchup to monitor Tuesday night.
Wake’s Matthew Marsh scored 10 points and was problematic as a roller and a lob threat. Appleby navigated the ball screen well and found Marsh for several easy baskets. Appleby did have eight turnovers in this game, and the team had 15. Hildreth was able to score effectively this one, getting to his spots and connecting on 7-13 field goals from inside the arc.
Duke could only muster seven offensive rebounds in this one, nearly half of their season average of 13.6. It’s worth noting that Whitehead and Lively both were out for this game due to an illness.
Prediction:
Wake will enter this game with confidence after handing Duke a loss this season, but the Blue Devils will be seeking revenge on their home floor, where they haven’t lost yet this season. Based on the way NC State’s Burns was able to dominate down low, I imagine Duke will make an effort to give Filipowski and Young plenty of touches on the blocks.
The Deacs are desperate for a resumé-boosting win to slide them back into the at-large picture, but a lot has to go right for them to do so. It’s very likely that Wake shoots the ball better from distance, which will be necessary to pull off this upset. Additionally, Forbes’ group will need to take care of the ball, and hold their own on the interior. Duke is very physical and wants to get easy buckets on the inside, and if Wake has trouble stopping that this could be a blowout.
This line feels like a bit of an overreaction to Duke blowing out a really bad Georgia Tech team. I definitely expect Wake to compete in this one, so even though I do think the Blue Devils will stay perfect in Cameron, I don’t think this is a blowout spot.
The Pick: Wake Forest +8
Score Prediction: Duke 78 Wake Forest 72
Season prediction record
11-11 ATS
16-6 Straight up
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