Wake Forest vs Florida State: Preview and Prediction

Wake Forest is looking to get ACC win No. 4 against the Seminoles

Wake Forest heads back home to host the Florida State Seminoles on Wednesday night.

Gameday Info:

Tipoff: 9pm ET

TV: ACCN

Spread: Wake Forest -7.5

Total: 150.5

Florida State Team Overview:

Record: 5-11 (3-2)

KenPom: 161st (141st Offensive, 198th Defensive)

Recent Games: W 75-64 vs Georgia Tech, L 86-67 at Duke, W 73-72 vs Notre Dame

Leading Scorers:

So. G Matthew Cleveland (14.4 ppg, 7.3 reb, 1.1 stl)
Sr. G Darin Green Jr. (14.1 ppg, 2.0 ast, 42.0 3PT%)
Jr. G Caleb Mills (12.9 ppg, 3.6 ast, 1.8 stl)

After a catastrophic 1-9 start to the season for Florida State, the Seminoles have been playing much better basketball over the past month, winning four of their last six games. However, the team still don’t have a top 125 KenPom win to their name yet this season. The 5-11 record is disastrous considering the expectations Florida State had entering this season, along with the program’s level of success during the past decade.

A massive reason for the decline over the last two seasons in Leonard Hamilton’s program is the incredibly unlucky injury streak they’ve had to deal with. Hamilton’s teams usually have the identity of next level balance and depth, but the injury bug has made it difficult for him to employ his signature style. Jaylen Gainey and Cam’Ron Fletcher are sorely missed as athletic forwards that can defend and rebound at a high level.

READ: Keys to the Game - Wake Forest Basketball vs Florida State

The Seminoles are coming off a 75-64 win at home against Georgia Tech. Matthew Cleveland led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds, his sixth straight double-double. Caleb Mills scored 13, his sixth-straight game in double figures, and sharpshooter Darin Green drilled four three-pointers, his seventh-straight game with multiple makes from downtown. Those three players make up the core of this team, along with sophomore guard Jalen Warley, who’s arguably the team’s best passer and defender.

Those players have plenty of talent, but the guy making his debut Wednesday night might be better than them all. 6’10” freshman Baba Miller is a projected NBA lottery pick, but was suspended for the first 16 games of the season. Hamilton could ease him into action, but considering the team’s record and heavy minutes the key guys have been playing, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Miller be very involved in his first game.

Key Stat:

Florida State gives up 12.0 offensive rebounds per game. Only 25 teams in the country allow more.

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 11-5 (3-2)

KenPom: 86th (50th Offensive, 138th Defensive)

Recent Games: W 80-72 at Louisville, L 88-79 at North Carolina, W 77-75 vs Virginia Tech

Leading scorers:

Gr. G Tyree Appleby (17.9 ppg, 5.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 46.4 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (11.8 ppg, 6.4 reb, 2.8 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (11.6 ppg, 3.3 reb, 38.4 3PT%)

Last time out, the Demon Deacons looked like they were on their way to a blowout victory over the lowly Louisville Cardinals, up 22 early in the second half. A furious Cardinals comeback cut the lead to three, but Wake was able to pull away late. Tyree Appleby had a quiet game for his standards, notching 13 points and eight assists. Damari Monsanto led the team in scoring for the second-straight game, registering 21 points and connecting on 5-12 attempts from long range. I wrote earlier this week that he’s become Wake’s second-best offensive player, and the firepower he brings to the table has been crucial for this team. That distinction is no disrespect to Cameron Hildreth, who put together an offensive gem himself with 19 points on 8-10 shooting. The 6’4” guard also grabbed eight rebounds. He leads the team in rebounds on the season.

Head coach Steve Forbes said after the Louisville game that his bigs did not play well. Andrew Carr has been quite inconsistent over the past several games. He scored just five points in games against Louisville, Rutgers and LSU, but went for 16 against North Carolina and 20 against App State (a game he also hit a buzzer-beater to win it in). A lot is asked of Carr on both ends of the floor, but he needs to bring it every game for this team to be better.

Matthew Marsh is a dunking machine with one of the highest shooting percentages in the nation, but his rebounding and defense have been inconsistent as well. He went for six points and eight boards in the win over Louisville.

For the first time since the first three games of the season, Davien Williamson has scored in double-figures in three straight. While he’s not much of a ball handler or facilitator, he gives the team another lethal shooter who can hit four shots or more in any game.

Key Stat:

Wake Forest is shooting 38.3% from three-point land through five games of league play, the highest in the ACC.

The Pick: Florida State +7.5

Wake Forest is 8-0 at home this season, and I expect them to stay perfect in the Joel Wednesday night. However, I’m more comfortable taking the points for Florida State. Wake has settled into a nice rhythm offensively over the last few games, and even though the Seminoles are long and athletic, they rank outside the top 200 in KenPom defensive efficiency. Appleby has given defenses fits all season long with his ability to make plays off of a high-ball screen. Miller’s debut definitely spices the appeal of this game up, and even though he might have some growing pains, I see the depleted Seminoles feeding off of the energy of the talented rookie’s presence. The Deacs displayed their defensive weaknesses in that second half vs Louisville, so the Seminoles won’t struggle to score. I expect the Deacs to win by a couple of possessions in a high-scoring affair, but not cover.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 81 Florida State 75

Season prediction record

7-8 ATS

11-4 Straight up

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