ACC Football Week 10: Game Previews and Spread Predictions
As ACC teams prepare for the stretch run, it doesn't look like anybody is going to catch No. 5 Clemson (6-0 ACC) in the Atlantic and No. 17 North Carolina (4-0 ACC) in the Coastal. Both division leaders are in action on the road this weekend.
Saturday
#17 North Carolina (7-1) at Virginia (3-5)
Spread: North Carolina -7.5 (-102), Virginia +7.5 (-120)
Moneyline: North Carolina (-285), Virginia (+230)
Total: 60.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ACCN
The weekend slate opens with a showdown between the ACC Coastal’s best and worst. No. 17 North Carolina enters this one coming off of four straight victories, while Virginia has lost four of their five ACC games.
Last Saturday, North Carolina rode 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to a 42-24 home win over Pittsburgh. The Tar Heels boast a top-8 FBS offense in yards per game (502) and points per game (41.8), led by Heisman candidate Drake Maye. Maye showed out once again in last week’s win, posting 449 total yards and five passing touchdowns.
The Cavaliers fell 14-12 at home to Miami in one of the most putrid games of the ACC season. Both teams went four overtimes without scoring a touchdown, and Virginia failed to convert goal-to-go opportunities from the three and the one respectively in regulation. However, the conservative approach for the Cavaliers saw quarterback Brennan Armstrong and the offense both post zero turnovers for the first time in 2022.
The Pick: Virginia +7.5 (Bonus: Over 60.5)
The Cavaliers are getting 35 percent of the bets in this one as bettors seem to be glued to North Carolina’s high powered offense. However, their conference-worst defense has a tendency to make bad offenses look good. The Tar Heels are 1-2 ATS in games this year where they are favored by more than a touchdown. I’ll take the Cavaliers to keep it close and cover as they catch North Carolina in a “look-ahead” spot with a trip to No. 20 Wake Forest on the horizon.
Georgia Tech (3-5) at Virginia Tech (2-6)
Spread: Virginia Tech -3.5 (-115), Georgia Tech +3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Virginia Tech (-170), Georgia Tech (+145)
Total: 41
Time/Channel: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Two of the conference’s biggest rebuilding programs matchup in this one. However, Georgia Tech has a little more recent success to be happy with, while Virginia Tech has dropped their last four ACC games.
The Yellow Jackets were throttled 41-16 by Florida State last Saturday on the road. Georgia Tech has now sustained losses under each of quarterback Jeff Sims’s replacements; third-string Zach Pyron totaled 198 passing yards and a touchdown in his debut. While Sims’s likely return next week should stabilize the offense, Tech’s defense allowed 642 yards in this loss, the most any ACC defense has yielded in a single game all season.
Virginia Tech lost 22-21 at NC State last Thursday, as they let a three possession third quarter lead slip in the final frame. Quarterback Grant Wells accounted for three touchdowns during the Hokies’ run of 21 unanswered points. However, the offense totaled 16 yards in the fourth quarter after being backed up on consecutive drives thanks to two kickoff fumbles by running back Chance Black.
The Pick: Virginia Tech -3.5
This is a really difficult pick. Georgia Tech looked their best in a few years in back-to-back wins with Jeff Sims under center with interim head coach Brent Key at the helm. However, VT played their best football on both sides all season in the third quarter of last week’s defeat. Their late collapse will produce some serious motivation for the Hokies in this game with one of college football’s biggest home field advantages at their back. I expect Virginia Tech to take care of business at home and win by more than a field goal.
#20 Syracuse (6-2) at Pittsburgh (4-4)
Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-105), Syracuse +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (-182), Syracuse (+150)
Total: 48.5
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN
A team that has exceeded expectations versus one that has failed to live up to them - No. 20 Syracuse (3-1 ACC) and Pittsburgh (1-3 ACC) face off on Saturday afternoon.
Syracuse lost 41-24 to Notre Dame last week in their first home defeat of the season. The Orange failed to regain their footing after losing breakout quarterback Garrett Shrader to a scary head injury late in the second quarter. Their conference-leading defense, which places top 20 nationally in terms of yards allowed, has allowed 539 rushing yards in their last two appearances (246 by Notre Dame) after only permitting 116 in two games prior.
Pittsburgh fell to the first place Tar Heels last week 42-24, allowing four unanswered second-half touchdowns. The offense continues to go as far as Israel Abanikanda takes them; his 127 yards and three touchdowns on the ground last weekend saw him become the first ACC (and ninth FBS) running back to cross the 1,000 yard threshold this season. However, Abanikanda coughed up a costly fumble late which would end up providing his team with a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit.
The Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5
The Orange pride themselves on a “Mob” defense that sees them crowd the line at the point of attack. In recent losses to Clemson and Notre Dame, these defensive tactics have been exposed by impressive rushing approaches. Led by a top running back in college football, Pittsburgh figures to have no problem doing the same to Syracuse’s defense. With Shrader’s status up in the air for this one, I see the Panthers comfortably rolling to a victory.
#4 Clemson (8-0) at Notre Dame (5-3)
Spread: Clemson -3.5 (-115), Notre Dame +3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Clemson (-172), Notre Dame (+142)
Total: 43.5
Time/Channel: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
No. 4 Clemson appears in another primetime showdown on Saturday night; this time they visit a Notre Dame team that looked great beating then No. 16 Syracuse last week.
The Tigers are coming off a well-earned bye week that followed a 27-21 home victory against the Orange, which provided them a one-game cushion over the Orange in the ACC Atlantic. After his third turnover in the third quarter, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was benched for five-star recruit Cade Klubnik. In combination with a stellar performance from sophomore running back Will Shipley (172 yards and two scores on the ground), Klubnik led Clemson on a 17-0 run to close the game.
Notre Dame acquired another impressive ACC win last Saturday by handling the Orange 41-24 on national television. Despite a disappointing season in light of lofty preseason expectations, the Fighting Irish are undefeated (2-0) against ACC sides this year. Running back Audric Estime has had his two best games this season in these victories after posting 123 yards and two fourth-quarter scores against a formidable Syracuse defense.
The Pick: Notre Dame +3.5
The recent performances by this team against a common opponent makes this line pretty interesting. In the trap game of the weekend, Clemson is getting a whopping 71 percent of spread bets in this one. Dabo Swinney has granted Uiagelei the starting role for this one despite his benching last week, but it remains to be seen how short his leash will be. Against a rarely vulnerable Tigers team with a quarterback situation in flux, Notre Dame is faced with a prime opportunity to salvage their season with a massive win against a current CFB playoff team. The Fighting Irish memorably triumphed 47-40 in Clemson’s last visit in 2020 and will do the same here as home dogs in front of an impassioned crowd.
Louisville (5-3) vs James Madison (5-2)
Spread: Louisville -6.5 (-122), James Madison +6.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Louisville (-285), James Madison (+230)
Total: 52.5
Time/Channel: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
The evening slate continues with a showdown that sees the surprisingly competitive James Madison Dukes visiting one of the hottest ACC teams in the Louisville Cardinals.
Louisville has ripped off three straight inter-conference victories for the first time since 2016 after their embarrassing loss to Boston College. The latest of these wins was a 48-21 domination of then No. 10 Wake Forest at home last weekend, which was the fifth victory against an AP Top 10 team in program history. The obvious bright spot for the Cardinals in the win was their defense, which now leads the nation with 33 sacks after posting eight (three strip-sacks) on Saturday.
James Madison is one of the feel good stories of the college football season; they are challenging Coastal Carolina for the Sun Belt title in their first year in the FBS. However, they have dropped two straight, including a 26-12 home loss to Marshall, after receiving their first AP Top 25 ranking in school history.
The Pick: James Madison +6.5
Louisville acquired a major win over Wake Forest by turning the Deacons over eight times, including six in the third quarter. Their resurgence this year has been based on the turnover margin, as they place second in the FBS with 14 interceptions. The Dukes place just outside the top 30 in college football in rushing yards per game with a talented three-headed backfield. By prioritizing these offensive strengths, James Madison will play away from the Cardinals ball-hawking secondary. It’s a perfect storm for the Dukes to get back to their undefeated form.
Florida State (5-3) at Miami (4-4)
Spread: Florida State -7.5 (-110), Miami +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Florida State (-295), Miami (+235)
Total: 53.5
Time/Channel: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Both Florida State and Miami were placed in the AP rankings this season after their undefeated starts. Now, each team needs a win to stay in the bowl season picture.
The Seminoles brought in a huge bounceback win at home last week by defeating Georgia Tech 41-16. With a 642 yard performance in the victory, Florida State’s offense now places in the top 20 nationally with roughly 487 yards per game. Signal-caller Jordan Travis had his best showing of the year with 396 passing yards, including the longest touchdown pass of his career (78).
Miami survived in a 14-12 slugfest against Virginia with backup quarterback Jake Garcia at the helm. Usual starter Tyler Van Dyke missed Saturday’s game with a shoulder injury and is expected to return this weekend. An uninspiring show on both sides of the football thrust kicker Andres Borregales into the spotlight; he responded by making all four of his field goal attempts after missing one on the final play of last year’s loss to the Cavaliers.
The Pick: Miami +7.5 (BEST BET OF THE WEEK)
The Hurricanes continue to rate well on both sides of the ball. They rank fourth among ACC teams with 426 yards per game and sixth with 343 yards allowed per game. While they continue to prove me wrong, Miami is a better team than their record suggests. They are the hungrier team in this one and have their offensive captain returning under center. I will gladly take more than a touchdown cushion and could easily see them pulling out the victory here.
#21 Wake Forest (6-2) at #22 NC State (6-2)
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5 (-104), NC State +3.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-166), NC State (+138)
Total: 54.5
Time/Channel: 8 p.m. ET, ACCN
Click here to read our staff predictions.
ATS Picks Season Record: 15-13-1 (3-2-1 last week)
ATS Best Bet Season Record: 3-1-1 (0-0-1 last week)
All odds via Fanduel at time of posting
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily