ACC Football Week 11: Game Previews and Spread Predictions
Week 11 sees all 14 ACC teams playing against each other for the first time in the 2022 season. Despite their first loss of the year, the No. 10 Clemson Tigers still hold a firm grip on the Atlantic (6-0 ACC) while the No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels continue to dominate in the Coastal (5-0 ACC).
Saturday
Virginia Tech (2-7) at Duke (6-3)
Spread: Duke -9.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Duke (-385), Virginia Tech (+300)
Total: 49.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ESPN3
The weekend opens with an ACC Coastal showdown as the last place Hokies (1-5 ACC) look to spoil the second place Blue Devils’ division title hopes (3-2 ACC) on the road.
Virginia Tech blew a multi-possession fourth quarter lead for the second consecutive week on Saturday in a 28-27 home loss against Georgia Tech. The Hokies’ offense posted zero points and coughed up two essential fourth quarter turnovers, both in Yellow Jacket territory, in the second half collapse. The abysmal offensive display was no surprise for a group averaging an ACC-worst 316.7 yards per game this season.
Duke’s 38-31 victory at Boston College last Thursday moved the program to six wins in nine opportunities, tying their best start since 2015. The Blue Devils continue to ride their rushing attack, which is second in the ACC with 208.1 yards per game after posting 232 last week. This offensive approach is led by sophomore signal-caller Riley Leonard, who leads ACC quarterbacks with 577 rushing yards on the year.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +9.5
This marks the fifth time in six games I have backed the Hokies; they covered in their only two games as double-digit underdogs this season during this stretch. While they rate horribly offensively, they boast a decent rushing defense that has only allowed 134 yards per game. VT should slow down a one-dimensional Duke offense enough to stay competitive in this one. If they can finally put together a fourth quarter, the Hokies should have no problem covering this number and maybe even pull off the road upset.
Pittsburgh (5-3) at Virginia (3-6)
Spread: Pittsburgh -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (-225), Virginia (+184)
Total: 41.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ACCN
Pitt (2-3 ACC) needs a victory to secure bowl eligibility this week, in a matchup where the last place Cavaliers (1-5 ACC) look to break a two-game losing streak.
The Panthers put a stop to their own two-game conference losing streak with a road win over a No. 20 Syracuse side down their starting quarterback last week. Despite being without offensive star Israel Abanikanda (undisclosed), backups Rodney Hammond and C’Bo Flemister combined for 166 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Virginia lost by one possession at home for the second consecutive week on Saturday in a 31-28 loss to North Carolina. Against a league-worst Tar Heel defense, the Cavaliers posted their second-highest yardage total of the season with 418. This effort was led by quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who posted 232 yards through the air and scored twice on the ground.
The Pick: Virginia +5.5
Pittsburgh is receiving 73% of the bets according to Action Network and the line has moved in their direction. Accordingly, Vegas is begging you to back the Panthers. Virginia has surprisingly totaled thirty sacks on the season, which is good for third in the ACC, and will easily disrupt an unimpressive Panthers passing approach. This should allow them to hone in on the ACC’s top rushing offense and secure their first home ACC win of 2022.
Louisville (6-3) at #10 Clemson (8-1)
Spread: Clemson -7 (-105)
Moneyline: Clemson (-255), Louisville (+205)
Total: 52.5
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The No. 10 Clemson Tigers (6-0 ACC) will have to win out if they want to have an outside shot at returning to the CFP. They begin with a tough home test against a Louisville (3-3 ACC) team that has won four in a row.
Louisville scored 27 unanswered points over three quarters last week on the way to dominating James Madison 34-10. The Cardinals out gained the Dukes 302-49 in the second half of Saturday’s win, highlighted by a 71 yard touchdown rush by junior Tiyon Evans. Since signal-caller Malik Cunningham’s return, his offense has posted nearly 1,200 total yards in three consecutive victories.
Clemson’s undefeated run this season ended with a disappointing performance away from home in a 35-14 defeat to Notre Dame. The Tigers were not on the scoreboard until early in the fourth quarter of the loss. Their quarterback room has been in flux all year; freshman prodigy Cade Klubnik answered the call in this one with an interception on his only throw.
The Pick: Clemson -7
The public is pushing for a Clemson collapse as this line has moved a point and a half in the Cardinals’ direction since open. Despite the controversy, typical starter DJ Uiagalelei is having a career year with 22 total touchdowns and well over 2,000 yards accounted for. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers boast the ACC’s second best rushing defense with 107.7 yards allowed per game. Cunningham is playing through an injury to his non-throwing hand and should struggle when his scrambling ability is hindered by the Clemson defense. I expect a resounding bounceback from DJ and the Tigers here.
Boston College (2-7) at #16 NC State (7-2)
Spread: NC State -18.5 (-104)
Moneyline: NC State (-1700), Boston College (+890)
Total: 40.5
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN
NC State (3-2 ACC) hosts last place Boston College (1-5 ACC) Saturday afternoon with a chance to win their third straight ACC matchup.
The Eagles’ underwhelming season continued with a 38-31 defeat at the hands of the Duke last Thursday. The loss marked the worst record for Boston College through nine games since 2012. Despite the demoralizing result, freshman quarterback Emmett Morehead posted 330 yards and four touchdowns through the air in his debut for the program.
NC State obtained their biggest win of the year last week, beating then No. 21 Wake Forest 30-21 at home. Their ball-hawking defense leads the ACC with 14 interceptions after taking three off of Sam Hartman. With three scores on Saturday, signal-caller MJ Morris has posted six touchdowns without a turnover in his first two starts for the Wolfpack.
The Pick: Boston College +18.5
Boston College is tied for the second worst record in the FBS against the spread this season at 2-7. However, they covered as double-digit underdogs with Morehead at the helm last week. I think this spread would have made sense at the beginning of the season, but I am not ready to trust Morris to cover an ACC matchup by three touchdowns. The Wolfpack defense figures to feast on an offense led by a young backup in his second start, but I expect Morehead and the Eagles to do enough to cover the number.
Miami (4-5) at Georgia Tech (4-5)
Spread: Georgia Tech -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Georgia Tech (-118), Miami (-102)
Total: 44.5
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Miami (2-3 ACC) visits Georgia Tech (3-3 ACC) with both teams looking for a win to put themselves in a better spot for bowl eligibility.
The Hurricanes are in disarray after their in-state rival Florida State embarrassed them 45-3 on their home turf. Signal-caller Tyler Van Dyke re-aggravated his Week 8 shoulder injury in the defeat and his replacements, Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown, combined for 38 passing yards and two interceptions.
Interim head coach Brent Key’s magic returned last Saturday as he led his Yellow Jackets to a 28-27 comeback victory over the Hokies. True freshman Zach Pyron has seized the backup quarterback role in Atlanta after providing two essential fourth quarter scores to secure the win. Georgia Tech’s defense is tied for second in the country with 22 total turnovers after taking the ball away three times last week.
The Pick: Georgia Tech -1.5 (BEST BET OF THE WEEK) (Bonus: Over 44)
Both teams’ starting quarterbacks, Tyler Van Dyke and Jeff Sims, are both nursing lingering injuries and may both not go in this one. The Hurricanes will put forth some combination of Garcia and Brown, while the Yellow Jackets will turn to Pyron after his performance last Saturday. Miami’s two backups have posted nine turnovers and only two touchdowns in ten quarters of action. With one of the most aggressive defensive approaches in college football, Georgia Tech should feast on either of these inexperienced options.
#15 North Carolina (8-1) at Wake Forest (6-3)
Spread: Wake Forest -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-184), North Carolina (+152)
Total: 78.5
Time/Channel: 8 p.m. ET, ACCN
Click here to read our staff predictions.
#23 Florida State (6-3) at Syracuse (6-3)
Spread: Florida State -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Florida State (-315), Syracuse (+250)
Total: 50.5
Time/Channel: 9 p.m. ET, ACCN
After achieving their highest AP ranking since 2001, the Orange (3-2 ACC) have dropped three straight games. They are visited by the No. 23 Seminoles (4-3 ACC) this weekend, who have entered the rankings for the first time since Week 5.
Florida State has dominated an ACC Coastal team each of the last two weeks after their 45-3 destruction of Miami on the road last weekend. This result was the Seminoles’ largest margin of victory over the Hurricanes since 1997. Their recent success has come on the heels of a resurgent rushing approach that now leads the ACC with around 212 yards per game.
Syracuse’s free fall continued last week with a 19-9 away loss to Pittsburgh. Starting quarterback Garret Shrader remained out with an undisclosed injury, and his replacement Carlos Del Rio-Wilson only managed 120 yards on a putrid 34% completion rate in his debut. Without Shrader’s passing ability, star running back Sean Tucker was limited to the second lowest yardage total (22) of his three year career. Tucker was not pleased with his performance.
The Pick: Syracuse +7.5 (Bonus: Under 50.5)
This is my most uncomfortable pick of the week; Florida State has looked like one of the ACC’s best teams in consecutive wins by four possessions or more. After holding Miami to an astonishing 62 total yards, they boast the second best defense in the conference with 308.4 yards allowed per game. However, they still place behind the Orange defense in both yards (306.9) and points (18.4). In a likely low-scoring affair, I’ll trust Syracuse’s defensive unit to slow down a red hot Seminoles side receiving nearly 80% percent of the bets.
ATS Picks Season Record: 18-17-1 (3-4 last week)
ATS Best Bet Season Record: 3-2-1 (0-1 last week)
All odds via Fanduel at time of posting
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily