Wake Forest vs UNC: Line, Preview and Predictions
Wake Forest returns from a two-game road trip on Saturday to take on No. 15 UNC. Check out our staff's predictions for the outcome along with other important gameday information below.
Gameday info:
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 68 degrees, low of 39 degrees
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-184), UNC (+152)
Over/under: 78.5
Spread: Wake Forest -4.5 (-106), UNC +4.5 (-114)
Why Wake can cover:
Wake hasn’t played their best football the past two weeks, but Saturday provides the Demon Deacons a great opportunity to bounce back. Despite recent struggles, Wake’s offense has had some prolific performances this season and the UNC defense has been porous at times, and their 31.0 points allowed per game is the worst in the ACC. This will be a hungry, desperate Wake Forest team looking to win a rivalry game in front of a rowdy home crowd. Expect Dave Clawson’s squad to play with a chip on their shoulder after two straight losses. The last two matchups between these two teams have been shootouts — if Wake can get a few stops and Sam Hartman can right the ship, the Deacs could win this one by a score or more.
READ: North Carolina HC Mack Brown on upcoming matchup with Wake Forest
Why UNC can cover:
This is a battle-tested Tar Heels team that’s won an NCAA-best five games on the road this season. They know how to win in hostile territory and will be prepared to play in a raucous Truist Field environment under the lights. Their offense is one of the best in the country, scoring 35-plus on six occasions. The Wake Forest defense excels when they can force turnovers, but they haven’t done so the past few weeks and star QB Drake Maye has only coughed it up three times this season. The Deacs’ offense has struggled lately as well — if the Tar Heels can force Sam Hartman into some bad decisions and take care of the football, they could march back to Chapel Hill victorious.
Pick: UNC +3.5
Bonus Pick: UNC ML and Over 76.5
The way the North Carolina offense — and mainly redshirt freshman and Heisman hopeful quarterback Drake Maye — is playing, it’s more than likely that the Tar Heels will score a lot of points on Saturday. The Tar Heels have the No. 5 scoring offense in the country — Maye leads the NCAA with 31 passing touchdowns, is third in QBR (89.5) and fifth in passing yards (2,964). The question is: will Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest offense play like they did against Clemson (6 TDs, 0 INTs), or will they continue the struggles with blocking and turnovers that have plagued them over the past two weeks? In what should certainly be a shootout, I expect a few mistakes from the Deacons to give North Carolina the edge.
UNC 52, Wake Forest 38
The Pick: UNC +3.5
Wake Forest has struggled mightily the past few weeks on both sides of the ball. The offense has coughed it up 11 times in two games and the defense has forced just one garbage time turnover in that stretch. It seems Wake is catching the Tar Heels at the wrong time — the Deacs’ season has hit the skids a bit after two consecutive losses and UNC hasn’t lost since Week 4. Drake Maye is on a tear and has a pair of elite receivers to throw to in Josh Downs and Antoine Greene. Wake Forest will play better than they have the past few weeks in front of a home crowd, but I think UNC’s road experience will come in handy and they’ll come out with a hard-fought victory.
UNC 38, Wake Forest 31
Pick: UNC +3.5
Bonus pick: over 76.5
My picks the last two weeks have been far from correct. So this week, we’re going to stick to the numbers and the history books. After correctly forecasting the last two weeks of Wake Forest football, FPI gives the Deacs a 54.2% chance of victory. Furthermore, the last two games between these two programs have been decided by a total of nine points, with last-minute touchdowns deciding each matchup. UNC has not won in Winston-Salem since 2004, and both programs are in the top three in the nation in passing touchdowns per game while ranking in the bottom 30 in passing touchdowns allowed. Put it all together, and you’re left with an offensive showdown and a narrow Wake Forest home victory.
Wake Forest 62, UNC 59
The Pick: UNC +3.5
Freshman phenom Drake Maye has proven to be more than a viable replacement for Sam Howell at quarterback. Now surfacing as a Heisman contender, Maye (31 TDs, 3 INTs) will look to prove himself in the Tar Heels’ last three games to emerge as the favorite. Look for Maye to have success against the Deacs’ secondary en route to a high-scoring output. Expect Hartman and the Wake Forest offense to have a bounce-back day, as UNC owns the No. 104 scoring defense in the country. But, Maye and the Tar Heels have been playing great football recently, and I expect this to continue. I’m taking the Tar Heels to win by a narrow margin.
UNC 40, Wake Forest 37
The Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
After two grueling weeks on the road, the Deacs return home on Saturday evening to host UNC. Many expected a top-25 matchup between these teams, but after dropping the last two, unranked Wake will face off against Drake Maye’s #15 Tar Heels. Maye is having the best season of any ACC quarterback, and the Deacs’ secondary will be tested on every corner of the field. On offense, my expectations for Saturday are that Wake’s offensive line will withstand frequent blitz attempts, yet create enough gaps for some explosive runs from Christian Turner or Justice Ellison. I expect the Deacs to quickly regain lost confidence and jump to an early lead. Aside from Notre Dame, Wake Forest will be UNC’s toughest competition, and a loud Truist Field shouldn’t do any favors on the road.
Wake Forest 35, UNC 30
Spread picks season record:
Ben Remis: 6-3
Sam Rausch: 6-3
Eliot Leadem: 5-4
Essex Thayer: 5-4
Ben Conroy: 4-5
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