ACC Football Week 9: Game Previews and Spread Predictions
After a stretch of populated bye weeks, Week 9 sees twelve ACC teams in action. Thursday night featured a showdown between No. 24 NC State and Virginia Tech, where the Wolfpack squeaked out a 22-21 victory. Three of the four highest ranked teams in the conference are in action on Saturday.
Saturday
Notre Dame (4-3) at No. 16 Syracuse (6-1)
Spread: Syracuse -1.5 (-105), Notre Dame +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Syracuse (-140), Notre Dame (+118)
Total: 48
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ABC
The ACC weekend slate opens with a near pick-em between the Fighting Irish and the Orange, two teams having drastically different seasons. Notre Dame has fallen far from their preseason Top 5 AP ranking, while Syracuse has been the conference’s biggest surprise with a 6-1 start to the season.
Hopes for a great season for Notre Dame were dashed with quarterback Tyler Buchner’s injury and consequent home losses to Marshall and Stanford. The Fighting Irish still are a talented team on both sides of the football; they beat UNC on the road earlier this year.
A week after their momentous victory over a ranked NC State team, the Orange collapsed in a 27-21 loss to No. 5 Clemson. Their defense conquered DJ Uiagalelei by forcing him into three turnovers, one being a 90-yard scoop and score early in the second quarter. While they would blow a two-possession fourth-quarter lead when backup Cade Klubnik entered the game, the Orange defensive unit still proved themselves last weekend. They continue to lead the conference in points allowed (15.1) and yards allowed (294.7).
The Pick: Syracuse -1.5
While Syracuse took its first loss of the season last week, making a serious defensive impact and holding a fourth quarter lead in Death Valley is not something to be ignored. The conference-leading Orange defense should have no problem feasting against quarterback Drew Pyne and an uninspiring Notre Dame offensive unit. Add in a crowd that posted the tenth sellout in school history two weeks ago and I see Syracuse in a rollover.
READ: Louisville Players to Watch
Boston College (2-5) at Connecticut (3-5)
Spread: Boston College -7.5 (-106), Connecticut +7.5 (-114)
Moneyline: Boston College (-320), Connecticut (+250)
Total: 44.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, CBSSN
The Eagles are favorites for the first time in over a month against a lackluster Connecticut side that has lost by an average of 32.5 points to ACC teams this year (vs Syracuse and NC State).
With an embarrassing 43-15 loss to now No. 10 Wake Forest last week, Boston College sits with a conference worst 1-4 record. The typical bright spot for the Eagles in these defeats is all-ACC WR Zay Flowers; he posted 10 catches for 135 yards and a score last Saturday. Flowers now has the second-most 100 yard games in school history.
Connecticut blew an 11-point halftime lead to Ball State two weeks ago, posting no points in the second half. The Huskies do boast a noteworthy rushing attack, averaging 186.9 yards on the ground per game.
The Pick: Connecticut +7.5
60 percent of bets are coming in on the Huskies and the line has moved two points in their direction since open. This is because the Eagles have a conference-worst offense that posts 307 yards per game, and Connecticut more than triples Boston College's rushing totals on the season. Give me the home dog to bark with more than a touchdown to give.
Georgia Tech (3-4) at Florida State (4-3)
Spread: Florida State -23.5 (-105), Georgia Tech +23.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Florida State (-3500), Georgia Tech (+1350)
Total: 47.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ACCN
Georgia Tech started 1-3 before going 2-1 in ACC games under interim head coach Brent Key, while Florida State (2-3 ACC) has dropped three straight in conference play after opening the season with four wins.
Key’s Yellow Jackets looked unbeatable before quarterback Jeff Sims went down with a foot injury against Virginia last Thursday; Georgia Tech would go on to lose 16-9. Sims’s status for this game is unclear, but his coach said that he expected to see both backups, Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron, playing on Saturday. Currently in bowl contention and sitting at second in the ACC Coastal, this would be a huge win for the Yellow Jackets.
READ: Behind Enemy Lines - Q&A with Louisville Football Writer
The bye week came at a good time for the Seminoles after they blew another lead, albeit only 14-7, en route to a 34-28 loss at home to Clemson. Florida State posted 460 yards of total offense against a stingy Tigers unit only allowing roughly 334 on the year. This effort was led by signal-caller Jordan Travis, whose impressive season continued with 318 total yards and three touchdowns in the loss.
The Pick: Florida State -23.5
In home wins against Duquesne and Boston College this season, Florida State covered heavy spreads of 35.5 and 16.5 respectively. With another massive line, it seems Vegas doesn't expect Sims to play. Gibson was downright awful in the home upset to Virginia, gaining 99 yards on a 40% completion rate, and inexplicably ran out of bounds on their last play of the game. I’ll take the Seminoles to dominate a weakened Georgia Tech side and cover the number.
Miami (3-4) at Virginia (3-4)
Spread: Miami -2.5 (-114), Virginia +2.5 (-106)
Moneyline: Miami (-135), Virginia (+115)
Total: 48.5
Time/Channel: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
One of the most competitive matchups of this weekend’s slate sees two of the ACC’s first-year head coaches, Mario Cristobal and Tony Elliott, looking to salvage a bowl appearance out of otherwise disappointing debut seasons.
Miami got crushed 45-21 at home by Duke last week, losing quarterback Tyler Van Dyke early in the second quarter to a shoulder injury. The Hurricanes posted eight turnovers in the defeat, the most by a Power Five team since 2009. Freshman backup Jake Garcia was responsible for five of them (three interceptions, two fumbles). Garcia is preparing to start his first career game this Saturday.
The Cavaliers had lost three-straight ACC games before beating Georgia Tech 16-9 last Thursday. Elliott, a defensive-minded coach, was incredibly proud of his team's effort to only allowing the Yellow Jacket offense to post 3 points in the victory. Virginia leads the FBS with 19 total turnovers, overcoming three from quarterback Brennan Armstrong to avoid their first 0-4 ACC start since 2014.
The Pick: Miami -2 (BEST BET OF THE WEEK)
Despite an ugly start to the season, the Hurricanes continue to rank very well in the conference on both sides of the ball. They are third in the ACC with around 448 yards of offense per game, and are top four in sacks and interceptions. With pressure in the backfield against the most turnover-happy unit in college football, Miami should roll to a comfortable victory here, even if Van Dyke cannot go.
READ: Wake Forest vs Louisville - Line, Preview and Predictions
#10 Wake Forest (6-1) at Louisville (4-3)
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5 (-105), Louisville +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-170), Louisville (+143) Total: 64
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN
Click here to read our staff predictions.
Pittsburgh (4-3) at No. 21 North Carolina (6-1)
Spread: North Carolina -3 (-110), Pittsburgh +3 (-110)
Moneyline: North Carolina (-155), Virginia (+130)
Total: 65.5
Time/Channel: 8 p.m. ET, ACCN
The final ACC matchup on Saturday is a key showdown in the ACC Coastal; the division-leading No. 21 Tar Heels (3-0 ACC) are visited by the defending champion Panthers (1-2 ACC).
Pittsburgh looked awful in a 24-10 road defeat to Louisville last week. Quarterback Kedon Slovis posted three turnovers in the loss, including coughing up a 59-yard scoop and score that contributed to a 17-0 fourth quarter margin for the Cardinals. RB Israel Abanikanda continues to be the bright spot in a letdown year for the Panthers, posting 129 yards and a touchdown last Saturday. He leads the FBS with 13 rushing touchdowns and is top five with 959 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry.
On the other hand, North Carolina has opened inter-conference play with three straight victories highlighted by a last-second 38-35 win over Duke two weeks ago. The bye week was well-deserved for the Tar Heels as their ACC-leading offense is top ten in the FBS in both points per game (41.7) and yards per game (506). They are led by current Heisman hopeful Drake Maye, who has thrown for 2,283 yards and 24 touchdowns on the year.
The Pick: Pittsburgh +3 (Bonus: Over 65.5)
While Maye and the UNC offense continue to impress week in and week out, they are pushed to the limit by the worst rushing defense in the ACC at 186.3 yards allowed per game. Another shootout seems to be on the horizon for the Tar Heels, and they have needed last-minute efforts in their last two high-scoring wins against Miami and Duke (both had totals over 65). Pittsburgh will rely on Abanikanda in this one, as Slovis has as many touchdowns as interceptions (5-5) more than halfway through his senior season. If Abanikanda continues to run rampant and Slovis can make some throws against the worst defensive unit in the conference, Pittsburgh will win this one. I’ll take the points just in case.
ATS Picks Season Record: 12-11 (2-1 last week)
ATS Best Bet Season Record: 3-1 (1-0 last week)
All odds via Fanduel at time of posting
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily