ESPN's FPI updates their season projections for Wake Forest
Last week, we took a look at what ESPN’s Football Power Index predicted for the remainder of the Wake Forest football season. Again, you can learn about FPI and view the entirety of what it has to say here.
As one of the leading metrics in sports, FPI is updated after each week of college football action. Despite not playing a week ago, things have changed a bit for the Demon Deacons. After the bye week, FPI dropped Wake Forest five spots to 29th in the nation. ACC rivals Syracuse and Florida State jumped past the Deacs, placing Wake fourth in the ACC.
Of teams ranked in the top 30, Wake had the third-largest drop. Purdue dropped eight spots after barely beating Nebraska, and Notre Dame dropped six spots – although they are somehow still ranked 21st – after losing to Stanford.
Coming out of the bye, Wake’s projected record is about the same, at 8.7 wins and 3.3 losses. FPI still gives the Deacs a 4.6% chance of winning all of their remaining games, but the chances of winning the division have dropped to only 0.2%.
With the college football landscape and FPI ratings shifting each week, let’s revisit the predictions for each remaining opponent on Wake’s schedule:
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Saturday Oct. 22 - BOSTON COLLEGE (2-4)
ACC rank: 14 (13 last week)
National rank: 96 (95)
Projected Record: 3.5-8.5 (3.5-8.5)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 90.4%
Last week: 91.2%
Change: -0.8%
Boston College had a bye last week– we’ll see if the extra time off gives them a chance to beat Wake Forest for the first time since 2018. FPI doesn’t think it’ll happen, but gives the Eagles a 1% better chance than a week ago.
Saturday Oct. 29 - AT LOUISVILLE (3-3)
ACC rank: 7 (8 last week)
National rank: 39 (40)
Projected Record: 5.8-6.2 (5.7-6.3)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 48.3%
Last week: 49.1%
Change: -0.8%
Louisville was also on a bye last week. They host Pittsburgh this weekend. If the Cardinals can pull off the big win, the pendulum could swing even more in their favor for their matchup against Wake, which FPI currently believes is a coin flip.
READ: Wake Forest Football Recruiting: 2023 Defensive Commits
Saturday Nov. 5 - AT NC STATE (5-2)
ACC rank: 5 (3 last week)
National rank: 33 (26)
Projected Record: 8.3-3.7 (8.8-3.2)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 43.3%
Last week: 41.4%
Change: +1.9%
Last week was rough for the Wolfpack. After losing their leader Devin Leary for the rest of the season, they were beaten handily by Syracuse. NC State accordingly fell in the FPI. Heading into a bye week, the break couldn’t come at a better time for this team to regroup.
Saturday Nov. 12 - NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)
ACC rank: 6 (6 last week)
National rank: 38 (35)
Projected Record: 9.3-3.5 (8.9-3.8)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 62.8%
Last week: 63.6%
Change: -0.8%
UNC beat Duke 38-35 last Saturday, but they weren’t impressive enough to move up in the FPI. Another team with a bye this weekend, the Tar Heels appear to be the frontrunner in the ACC Atlantic.
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Saturday Nov. 19 - SYRACUSE (6-0)
ACC rank: 2 (5 last week)
National rank: 24 (32)
Projected Record: 9.2-2.9 (8.4-3.7)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 57.6%
Last week: 63.1%
Change: -5.5%
Syracuse was arguably the biggest winner in FPI last weekend– their eight-spot improvement was the highest of any team in the top 50.
Of any matchup on Wake’s remaining schedule, this one saw the most movement. FPI dropped almost six percent in the direction of the Orange. An undefeated showdown with Clemson in Death Valley is up next.
Saturday Nov. 26 - AT DUKE (4-3)
ACC rank: 10 (10 last week)
National rank: 66 (68)
Projected Record: 6.2-5.8 (6.6-5.5)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 68.2%
Last week: 69.6%
Change: -1.4%
After starting the year undefeated, Duke has now lost three of their last four games. Last weekend's loss vs bitter rival UNC will surely sting. With games at Miami and at Pitt still left on the schedule, Wake Forest might end up as even larger favorites by the time this game rolls around.
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Ben is a contributing writer for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Ben has also written at RedbirdRants, the St. Louis Cardinals FanSided site, for two and a half years.