Wake Forest season projection updated by ESPN's FPI - Nov. 16
For the first time in three weeks, FPI favored the wrong team in a Wake Forest football game. Even after dropping a third straight game on Saturday, Wake still rose a spot in the overall FPI rankings. Now ranked No. 35 in the country, Wake Forest is firmly entrenched in the “solid-yet-unspectacular” range of teams.
Despite rising one spot, FPI has lowered the projected win total for the Demon Deacons. Last week, the metric saw Wake finishing the year 7.7-4.3. Now, it’s down to 7.2-4.8. As you’ll see below, however, there is still hope to finish the season strong. Let’s take one last look at how FPI views the remaining matchups on the Wake Forest football schedule.
READ: Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson on end of season, living up to a new standard
Saturday Nov. 19 - SYRACUSE (6-4)
FPI Breakdown:
ACC rank: 8 (6 last week)
National rank: 46 (35)
Projected Record: 7.1-4.9 (7.7-4.3)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 64.2%
Last week: 57.6%
Change: +6.6%
“‘It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Orange. After losing a close battle against Clemson, Syracuse failed to rebound against Notre Dame.’ That’s what I wrote last week about Dino Babers and his Syracuse football team– this week, it’s only gotten worse… After a 6-0 start, the wheels have completely come off the wagon for Syracuse…”
That’s what I wrote last week about the Orange– as you can see, the analysis has been the same for the last month. Unfortunately for 'Cuse, I’m running out of ways to describe how their season has fallen apart. The Syracuse offense have completely disappeared– star running back Sean Tucker is not #PL34SED with the team’s performance, scoring only 14.25 points per game and averaging only 214.25 yards of offense in their four losses.
At one point in the year, this weekend’s matchup with Wake Forest was billed as a battle to win the division. Now, it’s a question of which team can get back in the win column. Demon Deacon fans won’t believe this, but the situation in Syracuse has been much worse than in Winston-Salem. FPI recognizes this difference, and favors Wake to win at home.
READ: "No Shot": Quarterback Sam Hartman says he will not return to Wake Forest for a sixth season
Saturday Nov. 26 - AT DUKE (7-3)
FPI Breakdown:
ACC rank: 9 (9)
National rank: 55 (56)
Projected Record: 7.8-4.2 (7.6-4.4)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 53.6%
Last week: 54.6%
Change: –1.0%
Is Duke a better team right now than Wake Forest? Although FPI firmly says no, one could certainly make a case for it. Shocking the entire conference, the Blue Devils got to seven wins on the season by overwhelming Virginia Tech 24-7 last weekend. The Blue Devil offense is legit, scoring over 24 points or more in every game but one this season. There’s really nothing more to say about Mike Elko’s squad– they’ve outperformed every expectation, and no matter what happens the rest of the year, 2022 has been a success. It’s possible, however, that Duke has won their last game– Pitt is heavily favored by FPI this weekend, and Wake Forest has a narrow edge to close out the year.
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Ben is a contributing writer for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Ben has also written at RedbirdRants, the St. Louis Cardinals FanSided site, for two and a half years.