Week 9: Wake Forest season projections updated by ESPN's FPI
Last week, we took a look at what ESPN’s Football Power Index predicted for the remainder of the Wake Forest football season. Again, you can learn about FPI and view the entirety of what it has to say here.
After a resounding win against Boston College, No. 10 Wake Forest is starting to get the national recognition that has eluded them all season. As the Demon Deacons rose in the AP poll, they also improved in the Football Power Index (FPI).
READ: ACC Football Power Rankings: Week 9
Wake Forest was the second-largest riser of any team in the FPI top-50 this week, moving up ten spots to No. 19. The Deacs find themselves third in the ACC, behind Syracuse (18) and Clemson (7). The projected record of the Demon Deacons has adjusted slightly, moving up to 8.8-3.2. The chance of winning out has gone up a percentage point as well, from 4.6 to 5.5%.
Clemson’s victory over Syracuse has all but secured the Tigers a division title. FPI only gives the Deacs a 0.1% chance to win the ACC Atlantic, reflecting the undefeated record and relatively easy remaining schedule for Clemson.
After an exciting slate of games last weekend and with FPI ratings shifting each week, let’s revisit the predictions for each remaining opponent on Wake’s schedule:
READ: Wake Forest Football: Louisville Team Overview
Saturday Oct. 29 - AT LOUISVILLE (4-3)
ACC rank: 6 (7 last week)
National rank: 38 (39)
Projected Record: 6.4-5.6 (5.8-6.2)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 48.8
Last week: 48.3%
Change: +0.5%
Wake Forest is catching Louisville at a difficult time. After an up and down start to the season, the Cardinals have now won two games in a row. QB Malik Cunningham is healthy and taking care of the football. Despite Vegas favoring the Deacs (-5.5), FPI sees the home team prevailing in an upset.
Saturday Nov. 5 - AT No. 24 NC STATE (5-2)
ACC rank: 5 (5)
National rank: 28 (33)
Projected Record: 8.3-3.7 (8.3-3.7)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 44.5%
Last week: 43.3%
Change: +2.2%
The bye week for NC State came at a perfect time with the injury to Devin Leary. Now the Wolfpack have a get-right spot at home against Virginia Tech, before welcoming Wake Forest in a nationally-ranked showdown.
READ: Wake Forest Football: Week 8 PFF Grades Roundup
Saturday Nov. 12 - No. 21 NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)
ACC rank: 7 (6)
National rank: 40 (38)
Projected Record: 9.2-3.6 (9.3-3.5)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 66.5%
Last week: 62.8%
Change: +2.7%
The Tar Heels are leading their division fairly comfortably. Following their bye week, UNC takes on a struggling Pitt team this weekend, with a chance to further improve their ACC Championship chances.
Saturday Nov. 19 - No. 16 SYRACUSE (6-1)
ACC rank: 2 (2)
National rank: 18 (24)
Projected Record: 9.1-2.9 (9.2-2.9)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 57.7%
Last week: 57.6%
Change: +0.1%
The Orange were so close. Leading for most of the game at Clemson, Syracuse was shut out in the second half and was unable to continue their undefeated start to the season Unfortunately for Cuse, the schedule doesn’t get much easier. Four of their five remaining opponents are in the FPI top 50– Notre Dame comes to town this weekend.
READ: Sam Hartman named ACC QB of the Week
Saturday Nov. 26 - AT DUKE (5-3)
ACC rank: 10 (10)
National rank: 59 (66)
Projected Record: 7.2-4.8 (6.2-5.8)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 65%
Last week: 68.2%
Change: -3.2%
After dropping three games in a row, the Blue Devils rebounded with a dominant victory at Miami this past weekend. First year head coach Mike Elko finds his team only one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2018. Duke has a bye this weekend to prepare.
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Ben is a contributing writer for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Ben has also written at RedbirdRants, the St. Louis Cardinals FanSided site, for two and a half years.