Wisconsin vs. Nebraska: Inside the Numbers
Nov 11, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Jackson Acker (34) scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
© Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Three straight losses, a home game at night, and a partridge in a pear tree. The Wisconsin Badgers need a bit of magic to right the ship after three straight losses -- including two at home. A 5-5 season is an unwelcomed feeling for the Badgers' fans and welcoming the Nebraska Cornhuskers this Saturday night can feel a bit uneasy too. Let's dive into the numbers to make sense of the matchup between two teams, with head coaches in their first year of their tenure, and both sitting at 5-5, 3-4 in the conference. What's comforting at least is the 70.6% matchup prediction in favor of the Badgers according to ESPN.
Wisconsin Badgers' offense vs. Nebraska's defense
If you're looking for a barn-burning shoot-out this weekend, expect the exact opposite. Neither of these teams is putting many points on the board. Nebraska ranks 114th in the nation at 18.9 points per game, while our Badgers sit at 95th with 22.2 points per game. Both defenses are giving up less than 20 points per game, too. So an offensive showdown shouldn't be expected. Plenty of three-and-outs and punts will reign for this game.
Badgers' rushing attack vs. the Cornhuskers' run defense
This will be a clash of a decent running game versus a stout rushing defense. The Badgers are pretty solid on the ground which is 40th in the nation at 4.6 yards per carry and 153.4 yards per game. Nebraska's defense is tough on run games. Allowing only 2.7 yards per carry and less than 80 yards per game.
Badgers' passing game vs. the Cornhuskers' secondary
If the Badgers can't get too much going on the ground, then the right arm of Tanner Mordecai is going to be of utmost importance. He's only completing 63% of his passes in the conference and is coming off of one of his best games, even in a loss to Northwestern. The Cornhuskers' secondary can be exposed, and the Badgers may need to "pitch backward" in order to open up holes in the run games. At the end of the day, Mordecai will be the difference-maker - either good or bad - in this game.
Nov 19, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers running back Anthony Grant (10) is tackled by Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Maema Njongmeta (55) during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
© Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska: defense vs. offense
Nebraska's offense is nothing to shake in the boots at, especially given the Badgers defense. It's an offense that only averages 18.6 points per game and a Badgers' defense that only surrenders about 20 points per game. When we said there were going to be a lot of punts and not a ton of action on the offensive sides of the ball.
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska: run stoppers vs. ground game
Nebraska is a run-first team. They have run the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this season and have gained 4.5 yards per rush. Their 185.2 yards per game is 27th in the nation and their three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust mantra is pure Big Ten smashmouth football. The Badgers rush defense will have to stand on its head, with another of those "something has to give" situations happening here. If the Badgers can stop the Huskers' rushing attack it'll set them up really well for a victory at Camp Randall.
Badgers' secondary vs. the Cornerhuskers' passing attack
Getting the Huskers out of their game plan to run the ball and putting it in the hands of Heinrich Haarberg should be the M/O of the defense. In conference play, Haarberg has a less than 50% completion percentage and three touchdowns to seven interceptions. Allowing less than 200 yards per game in the passing game should set the Badgers up well to shut down a less-than-stellar passing attack of the Huskers.
Game Outlook
The defense has to set the tone Saturday night at Camp Randall. There will be plenty of back and forth, but if Mordecai and the offense can get some points on the board early and the front seven can shut down the rushing lanes, this should be a game that snaps the Badgers' three-game losing streak. Let's go for it: 21-10 Badgers in front of the home crowd.
All Stats taken from Team-Rankings.com: Wisconsin Stats | Nebraska Stats.
