Can the Minnesota Vikings hack the NFL Draft?
With a new, analytically-savvy general manager calling the shots on draft night, the world is wondering: How will the Minnesota Vikings' draft be different this time around?
It's impossible to know for sure what direction Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will take the team -- and the event is so fluid that he could have many different possible paths depending on how the board falls -- however, there are some indicators based on studies of the draft of ways in which teams can get the most out of their picks. Let's have a look at five draft hacks the Vikings should keep in mind as they formulate a philosophy for picking their next wave of players...
Trade down
The idea behind trading down in the NFL Draft is that accumulating more picks is similar to having more darts to throw at the board in hopes of hitting the bullseye. While that line of thinking does stand to reason, the reality of NFL history is that higher selected players have been worth more value than players picked lower and we see a steady drop in success rate begin from the first pick all the way down to the final selection. So how can a team reckon with lowering their odds at success while accumulating more darts?
A 2014 study of the famed Jimmy Johnson draft chart showed that Johnson's chart, still widely used in the NFL, over-values higher picks. In fact, the value stated in Johnson's chart versus historical data shows that the two don't match up until pick 50 and the Johnson chart undervalues picks thereafter. So moving down early in the draft could yield more actual value than the Johnson chart suggests.
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A Pro-Football Reference study showed that teams with top-five picks only selected the player with the best career 10 percent of the time, which demonstrates how difficult it is to evaluate players -- and it only gets more challenging after the elite of the elite prospects.
In this particular draft, it's not easy to figure out the value that the Vikings might get for the No. 12 pick in a trade down because it may rest on the quarterback situation. If teams like New Orleans or Pittsburgh are desperate, the Vikings could take advantage and move down. If there isn't a QB who lower-drafting teams covet, it will be more difficult to get great value.
The idea of trading down goes hand-in-hand with the facts of life about the draft: Teams are not historically consistent in picking the right players, so picking more players can often be the right response.
Draft young
A chart made the rounds recently on Twitter showing that no GM went for younger players in the draft more often in recent years than Cleveland GM Andrew Berry. Well, the Vikings' GM just came from Cleveland, so naturally folks are making the connection that the Vikings could follow this path. The data says that they should.
A FiveThirtyEight study in 2018 showed that the career production of players drafted at age 20-22 was significantly higher than those selected at age 24 and slightly better than players who were 23 years old when picked.
The study found that age was important at the quarterback position, which might apply to this year's youngest projected first/second-round QB Sam Howell.
In a draft in which there is a particularly high number of older players because of eligibility increases due to COVID, it's possible the impact of getting the younger players will be even greater.
Draft for surplus value
When we talk about positional value, we are usually thinking about it in terms of which players most drive the success of a team. But how can we put an exact number on that when players impact each other's success? The answer: By looking at how much differently positions got paid.
Related is the idea of "surplus value." In this case, that's the difference between how much veteran players at a position cost versus how much a player on a rookie deal would cost. The most obvious example is a first-round quarterback on a rookie contract costing less than one-third of a quality veteran QB on his second contract. No matter the position, rookies are cheaper, but the biggest gaps between a rookie and elite veteran according to Pro Football Focus are at QB, pass rusher, defensive tackle, wide receiver and offensive tackle. The lowest gaps are at center, tight end and running back.
Where it gets interesting is second-tier and average players. Most picks are not expected to be elite players unless they are at the very top of the draft. The surplus study shows that landing an average pass rusher or receiver still has huge surplus value compared to what they cost on a second contract. On the other side, landing an average linebacker in the draft carries very little surplus value, as does an average defensive tackle, corner and safety.
What this tells us is even a median outcome at a super valuable position is very good for a team, whereas a high-end outcome is required for picks at some positions to be worth the selection. And some positions are almost not worth taking high in the draft, even if the player can be elite.
Don't worry about college usage
In a three-part study, PFF's Timo Riske looked at the college roles of wide receivers, offensive linemen and pass rushers. His research struggled to find any connection between success rate in the draft and college scheme for linemen and rushers and alignment for receivers. The best example of this might be Justin Jefferson, who was passed over by NFL teams because he only played in the slot during his breakout season at LSU. He instantly came into the NFL and thrived as an outside wide receiver.
While there are likely specific instances of players struggling to fit in a zone vs. power run scheme or in a certain pre-snap technique on the defensive line, mostly players who are good at football will adapt to their new roles in the NFL. Ignoring players because they don't fit what a team wants to do schematically is cutting out a percentage of players who might actually have a chance to thrive.
Know your pitfalls
Luck is the biggest factor in teams missing on draft picks. If a player (like Mike Hughes) gets injured or can't adapt to the speed of the NFL (like Josh Rosen), there wasn't anything in particular that the team should have known or done better. But in some cases, miscues were foreseeable. In particular, an analysis of The Athletic's consensus draft board found that teams reaching to over-draft players had a higher chance of picking a bust than teams selecting a player who slipped lower than their expected draft slot.
There are numerous other ways of spotting warning signs. PFF's Kevin Cole found that quarterbacks who perform poorly under pressure in college have a high bust rate. Another study discovered that pass rushers who rack up sacks and pressures on plays in which the quarterback holds the ball for more than three seconds are likely to be less successful. Another draft analysis looked at which Combine drills mattered the most to different positions. For example, cornerbacks with average 40 times are OK but corners who lack quickness in the 10-yard split tend to fail. Drafting well is just as much about guessing right on the players who have the best chance of thriving as avoiding the ones with the right kinds of statistical red flags.
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