The future of the Vikings, Part 3: Wide receivers/tight ends
En route to winning 13 games, the Minnesota Vikings became a pass-first offense. They threw for 4,484 yards, which was sixth in the NFL and the second most in franchise history, only trailing Daunte Culpepper’s historic 2004 season.
Naturally, the result of leaning into the passing game was some impressive numbers by Vikings receivers and tight end. Justin Jefferson led the NFL in receptions and yards and four players finished with 60-plus catches, including tight end TJ Hockenson, who only played 10 games in Minnesota.
After a strong year through the air, the Vikings’ pass catchers now face some questions, with some aiming to become much more wealthy and others’ futures unclear. Let’s have a look…
Adam Thielen’s future
Since 2010, there have only been 11 receivers to catch at least 70 passes after their age-32 season, so despite not putting up the same caliber numbers from season’s past, Thielen was still bucking history by grabbing 70 passes for 716 yards and six touchdowns. For 2022, he did so at a fairly reasonable cap hit of $11.9 million (per OTC). In 2023, he’s scheduled to carry a cap hit that would put him in the ballpark of the NFL’s elites at $19.6 million. That’s what they would call in chess “a forcing move.” Thielen can’t play at that number in 2023, therefore the Vikings must make some type of change, whether it’s moving on from the Detroit Lakes native or restructuring his deal.
Letting go of the long-time Viking would either come in the form of a trade or release. Just like at yard sales, everyone thinks their stuff is worth more than anyone will actually pay for it. Considering Amari Cooper was only moved for a fifth-round pick last offseason because of his salary cap situation, the Vikings may not get many offers that make the juice worth the squeeze. Opposing teams that are interested may simply wait until he’s cut.
Trading or releasing Thielen has the same impact on the cap. In both cases, there’s a huge gap between pre and post June 1. If he’s released before June 1, the Vikings only make $6.4 million in space and take on $13.5 million worth of dead cap. If he’s let go post June 1, those numbers essentially flip and they make a little over $13 million in space. But the June 1 cut isn’t a cure-all. Most of free agency is done by then and it pushes the dead cap space down the road, which might be something the Vikings want to avoid.
The idea that Thielen will be easily replaced because he isn’t a spring chicken anymore might also be a tad dubious. He was still the second best receiver in the NFL in drop percentage. But the below-the-surface numbers do not speak kindly do his future. The analytics website FiveThirtyEight listed Thielen as 58th out of 111 receivers using tracking data to determine openness, catching and yards after catch. Pro Football Focus graded him 36th of 39 receivers who had at least 90 targets. He produced the lowest yards per route run of any of those players and had the lowest contested catch rate.
If they do bring him back, there’s only so much they can do to lower his cap hit. Per OTC, they can move enough base salary to bonus money to create a comparable cap number to 2022. The argument to keep Thielen on a restructured deal is that the Vikings have minimal cap space and draft resources to fill gaps on the roster and by moving on from Thielen they would create another hole. If he’s the same player as last season, he can be effective as a supporting actor in Justin Jefferson’s show but the Vikings would still need to add additional threats, particularly downfield. Against Green Bay and New York, it became clear that defenses’ plans against Jefferson in the future will including daring anyone other than JJ to beat them downfield. Over the past few seasons, that hasn’t been in Thielen’s toolbox the same way it was years ago.
Justin Jefferson’s extension
From the team’s perspective, giving Jefferson a massive extension is a no-brainer. He made a tremendous case for being the best receiver in the NFL this season and has carried himself like the face of a franchise. That doesn’t mean that a long-term contract being signed this offseason is a foregone conclusion. There is really only one factor that could complicate matters: His vision for his future.
Just in the last three years we have seen Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill — arguably WR2, WR3, WR4 and WR5 in the NFL behind Jefferson — leave the teams that drafted them via trade. Each of those situations had different reasons but the point remains that it isn’t uncommon in recent history for elite wide receivers to choose a different path than sticking it out with their franchise.
In Diggs’ case, that was about his happiness. He didn’t believe the Vikings would allow him to be the player that he could be and he didn’t see them winning in the future. He turned out to be right on both accounts. Jefferson has a pass-first head coach who consistently communicates with him, which solves one of the Diggs issues but the other one is less clear. As the Vikings face an offseason in transition that might be similar to 2019 or 2020, does Jefferson see a path to his ultimate goal of becoming a Super Bowl champion?
It’s worth wondering how he feels about the quarterback situation as well. He couldn’t have asked for many more footballs to be thrown his way over the last three years but Kirk Cousins’ future is also up in the air. The Vikings also have only reached the divisional round once during Cousins’ tenure, which, of course, is not completely at the feet of Cousins but does connect to his contract and the challenges of building a Super Bowl-caliber team around an expensive QB. Would Jefferson want to see what the team does at QB before signing on the dotted line?
The cost does matter. The Vikings are in a blank-check situation but the price tag will eventually bring along restrictions with the rest of the roster. Last offseason Adams signed a five-year, $140 million extension and Hill signed for four years, $120 million. As far as annual average value, Jefferson would be likely to top those numbers but in terms of structure they can use the two rookie-deal years to their advantage, as the Eagles did with AJ Brown. Brown’s cap hits were spread out, allowing him to cost just $5.7 million this year, $8.3 million next year and $12.2 million in 2024. His cap hits jump significantly after that. His deal wouldn’t have to blow up immediate salary cap plans if it’s structured similarly.
As simple as it seems to sign him, Jefferson’s contract situation will loom large over the offseason as the Vikings’ brass decides on a lane for their future.
TJ Hockenson’s extension and Irv Smith Jr.’s free agency
Jefferson isn’t the only player who could sign a long-term deal this offseason. Tight end TJ Hockenson is heading into his fifth-year option season where he is set to make $9 million on the cap. After an impressive run as a Viking following his acquisition at the trade deadline, the former first-round pick in 2019 would appear to be a lock to stick around in the Midwest. But his strong play also upped the ante.
In 2021, Baltimore’s Mark Andrews signed for four years, $56 million with $38 million guaranteed. Philly’s Dallas Goedert inked a similar contract for four years, $57 million. That would seem to be a starting point for Hockenson if he wants to get a deal done this offseason.
He could choose to roll the dice as he’s set to be an unrestricted free agent next year and projects as the Vikings’ No. 2 option. He was on a 17-game pace for over 100 receptions with the Vikings. Another season with that type of production would put him in rare air i.e. Las Vegas’s Darren Waller, who averages $17 million per year.
At his end-of-year press conference, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah referred to acquiring Hockenson for a second-round pick as a now-and-later type of trade considering Hockenson’s future prospects. That would indicate that the Vikings are confident they can keep him around long term. However, his potential price tag does get thrown into the bucket along with Jefferson and eventually Christian Darrisaw of players who will be highly expensive in the future and whose deals may be impacted by what they choose to do at quarterback.
As far as Irv Smith Jr. goes, the 2019 second-round selection always seemed to be around the corner from a big breakout but it never came. He was injured after a terrific 2021 training camp and missed last season and then got hurt in training camp this year. When he returned, Smith Jr. was a step behind and only managed 22 catches through the first seven games before suffering another injury that kept him out until the end of the year. Against the Giants, he caught one pass for a 3-yard touchdown, which very likely was his last as a Viking.
It wouldn’t be shocking if someday Smith Jr. emerged as a quality player in the same way Evan Engram or Hayden Hurst did after failing with the teams that drafted them but the Vikings don’t have extra dollars sitting around to sign him to a hope-and-pray contract.
Nailor/Reagor outlook
You can make a pretty strong statement about the Vikings’ depth at receiver in 2022 by the target share of anyone not named Jefferson, Thielen or Osborn. In total, 26 passes were thrown toward any other receiver and many of those targets came either in garbage time or during the Vikings’ meaningless Week 18 game against Chicago.
Reagor, who was acquired prior to the start of the season, caught just eight passes and ran four times. His weaknesses as an overall receiver were on display against the Colts when he was given an increase in playing time and was on the wrong end of two interceptions, one of which he appeared to stop running. His role is not likely to change from simply being the team’s punt returner.
Nailor is more intriguing. While his catches came in moments where nothing was on the line, he did flash some blazing speed, grabbing nine passes for 179 yards.
A receiver in the draft?
Whether the Vikings move on from Thielen or not, there is still a legitimate case for drafting a first-round receiver despite all of the team’s needs on defense. In the FiveThirtyEight receiver/tight end rankings, Jefferson scored as the No. 2 receiver in the NFL and the next highest Viking was KJ Osborn at 45th. Compare that to the Eagles, who owned the No. 1 and No. 9 spots on the list or the Bengals who had No. 7 and No. 14 or San Francisco with the sixth and eighth best receiving weapons in the league.
One way or another, the Vikings need to find ways to force opposing defenses to pay attention to someone else down the field. Otherwise they are destined to face the same types of coverages that gave the offense trouble at times in 2022.
Related: The future of the Vikings, Part 2: Running back
Related: Justin Jefferson a finalist for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year awards
