The great Danielle Hunter debate: Extend or trade him?
There are two ways to look at Danielle Hunter’s situation following an NFL Network report that he will not be attending mandatory minicamp this week amidst a contract dispute:
- That the Vikings should sign him to an expensive contract extension because he’s an excellent, proven player and they are short on those on defense.
- They should trade him as part of a bigger rebuild that has already taken place across the roster.
It’s no easy choice whether to join Team Extend Hunter or Team Trade Hunter.
On one hand, Hunter has four double-digit sack seasons in his career and consistently elite QB pressure numbers. He proved to be healthy last year by playing 17 games after missing the better part of two years with injuries.
On the other end, the Vikings have moved on from nearly all of their veterans and might be better served going all the way with their rebuild and getting a high draft pick back in return for Hunter.
Which side you (and the Vikings) stand on might come down to the nuances.
The Team Extend Hunter folks would have to admit that extending Hunter has to have a certain price that they will not go over. The highest paid edge rusher in the NFL is making $28 million per year. It would be difficult for the Vikings to pay him at the very top of the market when they want to maintain cap flexibility into the future.
He also might note quite have a case as belonging in the cream-of-the-crop Myles Garrett/Micah Parsons discussion. ESPN’s Seth Walder tweeted this chart that shows pass rush win rates and double team rates for all edge rushers. Neither metric has Hunter alongside the best of the best. It’s particularly noticeable that Za’Darius Smith drew far more double teams than Hunter.
That certainly doesn’t mean Hunter’s production didn’t happen or should be cheapened. However, if the Vikings are making the call to pay him like the Myles Garrett’s of the world, it’s relevant whether he drives the team’s pass rush by himself as much as some others do.
There might be the question of whether Brian Flores feels that he can manufacture pressure without Hunter. The Dolphins were fifth in sacks in 2021 without a single player in double digits. Miami signed journeyman Emmanuel Ogbah, drafted Jaelan Phillips and Christian Wilkins and then filled in the rest with Flores’s attacking scheme.
The Team Trade Hunter group might be making this very argument but they would have to acknowledge that 10-plus sack players do not grow on trees. In the last 10 seasons there have only been 42 times in which a player posted 14 or more sacks and Hunter has done it twice. It’s crazy to think about Hunter missing so much time in 2020 and 2021 and still ranking eighth in sacks since 2018. That’s not something you easily replace.
But how much is that worth? How much do you expect to get in return? Both sides of the debate must have a price in mind to change their minds.
If Hunter was willing to agree to a contract similar to Bradley Chubb, who signed with the Dolphins for five years, $110 million with $33 million fully guaranteed, would the two sides of the argument come together? Or if another franchise offered a first-round pick in 2024, would they hold hands and agree that it’s the right move to trade him?
Neither of things things seem that likely. Otherwise this situation would have been resolved by now, right?
So who has to bend? Is pushing $30 million a year feasible with Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw extensions appearing to be coming down the pipe? Would it look like the Vikings giving Hunter away if they can’t get a first-round pick like Denver got from Miami in exchange for Chubb last year?
Can we find truth in the bigger picture?
Moving Hunter would be the final nail in solidifying a rebuilding approach on a team that has already cleared out everyone involved with 2017 NFC Championship team aside from Harrison Smith. It would be a thematic move and one that might ultimately play into the Vikings trading up to draft a quarterback to build around in 2024.
But Hunter isn’t old or fading. In order to build a championship team, you need a lot of good players. If you give away one this good, it could come back to bite you. Remember, the Eagles were down for just one year. Players like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham saw it through after Philly rebuilt in 2020.
Whatever team you are on, you have to acknowledge that this decision is not an easy one. If the Vikings have an ideal price that they’ll pay Hunter and an ideal return that they’ll trade Hunter and neither are met, what happens then?
It’s hard to say when there will even be a decision. In years past we could always count on resolutions during the early portion of training camp. Now it’s not clear. In years past we could always expect that the players would win out and stay on favorable extensions. Now it’s not clear.
What we can say is that the Vikings are in a new era. We haven’t seen anything like this approach in a long time and it’s safe to say plenty more debates will come along with it.
