Alabama vs. Arkansas score prediction by college football expert model
After some early season struggles, Alabama has firmly regained its footing as the No. 1 team in the SEC West after starting 3-0 in conference play, and this weekend welcomes unranked, last-place Arkansas in college football's Week 7 action.
What can we expect? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 7 game.
Alabama vs. Arkansas prediction
Alabama vs. Arkansas game predictions
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Score prediction
The simulations favor Alabama to defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 36 to 17, an expected point margin of 19.6 points, and gives the Crimson Tide an overall 87 percent chance of victory against the Razorbacks.
Point spread
Alabama is a 19.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take Arkansas +19, bet Alabama on the moneyline at -2000, and take the over.
Computer prediction
Other analytic models also favor Alabama to win the game.
College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners, predicts the Crimson Tide will win the game in 90.6 percent of its projections, or 18,120 of the sims.
Arkansas came out ahead in the remaining 9.4 percent of predictions, or 1,880 of the simulations.
Where the bets are
56 percent of bettors project Arkansas will either win in the upset or keep the game within the 19.5 point spread.
The other 44 percent of wagers expect Alabama to win and cover the 19.5 point spread.
Six in 10 of bets expect the total to go over 46.5 points, while the other 40 percent of wagers are siding with the under.
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Arkansas at Alabama schedule
When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
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