Alabama vs. Ole Miss picks, predictions: Week 4 college football odds, spread, lines

Expert picks and predictions for Ole Miss vs. Alabama in this Week 4 college football game based on the computer predictive models

Things look a little different these days in the SEC West, with a potential changing of the guard already in the works this season after some sloppy early play from Alabama, ranked outside the top 10 for the first time in 128 weeks, at home against undefeated Ole Miss in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Ranked at No. 13, the Crimson Tide come in at 2-1 and off a concerning victory over USF that raised more questions than it answered, especially at quarterback, where Jalen Milroe is set to start again this week, and arguably more so on the offensive line after a performance that left plenty to be desired in pass protection.

Lane Kiffin has the No. 15 Rebels at a perfect 3-0 on the year despite the relative weakness of the team's ground game, led not by star tailback Quinshon Judkins but quarterback Jaxson Dart and his 213 rushing yards, and dealing with an injury to lead wide receiver Tre Harris, scoring 100 second-half points in three games so far.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Ole Miss vs. Alabama picks, predictions

Alabama vs. Ole Miss picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Alabama odds: The computers are siding with the Crimson Tide to hold serve at home, as the index forecasts Alabama will win outright with 66.0 percent likelihood, according to the model that simulates games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss odds: That leaves the Rebels as the projected winner in 34.0 percent of the simulations, according to the index computers.

Point spread: The oddsmakers see a close game, with Alabama coming in as 6.5 point favorites against Ole Miss, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 55.5 points (Over -105, Under -120)

Moneyline: Ole Miss +200, Alabama -275

Alabama predictions: Down 3 spots this week after the USF game, the Crimson Tide slid to No. 4 on the index's 133 football rankings, projected to be 23.2 points better than an average opponent, and forecasted to win 9.4 games this season.

Ole Miss predictions: The Rebels slid 1 spot on the computer polls with an expectation to be 19.4 points better than opponents on average and estimated to win 9.2 games this season.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 23
Where: Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

A closer look at the AP top 25

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Georgia (57)
2. Michigan (2)
3. Texas (3)
4. Florida State (1)
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Penn State
8. Washington
9. Notre Dame
10. Oregon
11. Utah
12. LSU
13. Alabama
14. Oregon State
15. Ole Miss
16. Oklahoma
17. North Carolina
18. Duke
19. Colorado
20. Miami
21. Washington State
22. UCLA
23. Tennessee
24. Iowa
25. Florida

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