Alabama vs. Texas A&M game prediction, pick: Who wins, and why

What to watch for as Alabama and Texas A&M meet in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated predictions

This weekend brings us an impactful matchup in the SEC West from Kyle Field as Texas A&M and No. 11 Alabama meet in a game that could influence how the division title race plays out as college football's Week 6 action ramps up on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you need to watch for as Alabama and Texas A&M square off, along with our updated game predictions.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M preview, prediction

Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Alabama vs. Texas A&M game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Alabama -1.5
Total: 45.5 points
Moneyline: Bama -125 | A&M +100
FPI pick: Alabama 66% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Alabama's offensive line protection has stabilized over the last two SEC games, and has profited from quarterback Jalen Milroe's mobility in and out of the pocket. But the unit will get a much-harder test this week against an Aggie front seven that has recorded 15 tackles for loss in each of the last two games, racked up 14 sacks in that time, and is 1st in sack rate and tackles for loss per game. Alabama is 2nd worst nationally in protection rate. The game could be won or lost here.

2. A&M's skill threats. The Aggies have the personnel to exploit the deeper passing game and get behind Alabama's second-level tacklers, and the quarterback, Max Johnson in place of injured Conner Weigman, who is comfortable in the pocket and can deliver accurately on longer throws, to a battery of elite, agile receivers. 

3. Early start. Whoever scores first just might win the game. Alabama has won 51 of its last 52 games when it scores a touchdown on its opening drive. Texas A&M has won 33 of its last 38 games under Jimbo Fisher when scoring first, and that record improves to 32 out of 34 when it leads after the opening quarter.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M prediction

The one most important edge Alabama might have is the turnover margin. It ranks 14th nationally at plus-0.8 per game and is coming off a 3 takeaway effort on the road. A&M, for all its power and force up front, is just 114th in the country in taking it away from the other team.

Turnovers can completely change games and better teams can lose because of one bad moment caused by a giveaway. A&M will wreak some havoc at the line and throw Alabama's protection out of sorts, but the Crimson Tide has the bodies to get to Max Johnson, who had 3 turnovers last week including a pick-six, and force him into a mistake. And the skill threats to make the Aggies pay for it.

College Football HQ picks...

• Alabama wins 30-27
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

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